Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:04
Alright, let's do some chatting.
The Positional Power Rankings are underway, we're 10 days from the start of the season, and we're probably about to see some contract extensions announced in the next week.
So plenty to talk about.
BakedBean
12:04
Jeff and Paul laughed at my questions about Joe Kelly potentially putting it together this year and having a breakthrough. Will you do anything other than laugh at this notion? Is it really so absurd to think Joey might reach his potential?
Dave Cameron
12:05
It's not absurd at all. The stuff is good, the peripherals are good. He won't be an ace, but he could very well be a perfectly capable mid-rotation starter.
Biscuit
12:05
Any chance Tyler White ends up with 450 AB's this year?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Sure, but things would have to go wrong. The scenario where he gets 450 PAs is probably the one where Reed doesn't earn a promotion. Hard to see them running out rookies at both 1B and DH all year.
Guest
12:07
who has the worst record in mlb this year, braves or phillies?
Dave Cameron
12:07
The Phillies are the worse team.
Guest
12:07
arent the nationals and mets essentially a coin flip to win the east? i feel like people are handing the mets the division already
Dave Cameron
12:08
People overreact to the most recent year's results. Yes, it's close between them.
Dale Doback Jr
12:08
Thoughts on Conforto this year? 270/340/470 with 20ish HR's sound about right? Was impressed with his plate discipline after making the jump from AA.
Dave Cameron
12:08
I'd take the under on that level of power. Not the HRs necessarily, but a .200 ISO would surprise me.
Jorge Posada
12:08
what's your assessment of the marlins this year? playoff contender? medicore again?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Potential Wild Card contender. Will need Fernandez and Stanton to stay healthy and play at elite levels, but could happen.
Jon
12:09
Which method of team building do you think sets teams up better for sustained success? Developing pitchers & signing hitters (Mets) or signing pitchers and developing hitters (Cubs)?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I think you are definitely better off developing hitters.
Vegas
12:10
vegas has cubs at 93.5 wins. any value on over or under?
Dave Cameron
12:10
If forced to choose, I'd take the over, but I don't think that's far off.
Buster Posey's Mustache
12:11
are the giants being underrated? very solid lineup, solid rotation, experience.... theyre neck and neck with LAD for the division right?
Dave Cameron
12:11
No, I think the Dodgers are a step ahead, though the gap is closing as every Dodgers player gets hurt.
O's Fan
12:12
prediction for orioles record this year? seems like a team that will wind up in a good position to sell at the deadline but wont out of stubbornness
Dave Cameron
12:12
I'd guess mid-70s. Machado provides a bit of a floor but I could see a lot of other stuff going wrong.
Big hurt
12:12
What're your thoughts short and long term about T Story's production and how the rocks/the league will handle Reyes? Thanks
Dave Cameron
12:13
I think Story will be fine, maybe average-ish or a bit below. But I'd imagine he'll hold the job all year, and Reyes won't play for the Rockies again. My guess is that after his suspension -- which I'd guess will be for half the season -- they'll cut him, eat the rest of the money he's owed, and Reyes will essentially be forcibly retired by the league.
A Led Miss
12:15
Aledmys Diaz has a major league contract, but he hasn't seen any major league service time yet, so he'll be arbitration eligible relatively soon, but still under team control for 6-odd years from his major league debut? Which might be a motivation (were one needed) for him being sent to Memphis for at least April? Or am I wrong?
Dave Cameron
12:15
He won't be eligible for arbitration for three years from when his clock starts, just like any other player. Having an MLB contract just means he has to remain on the 40 man roster, and they have to option him to the minors, but you don't accrue any service time towards arbitration or free agency if you're on the 40 man and in the minors.
Scott
12:16
How long do Locke and Vogelsong make up the bottom of the Pirates rotation? Any chance we see Nicasio get a nod to start the season?
Dave Cameron
12:16
At this point, hard to see them not giving him a shot. If he flops, easy to move him back to the pen.
Copp
12:17
If you were a betting man, would you bet that Aybar finishes the season with the Braves? If not, what teams could be likely destinations?
Dave Cameron
12:17
I'd be shocked if he finishes the year in ATL. I could see him playing second base for the Royals down the stretch.
The Average Sports Fan
12:18
You have been steadfast in your defense of the Dodgers. They sure look a lot more like a .500 team than anything else. What am I missing?
Dave Cameron
12:18
All of their good players, apparently.
John
12:19
Counsell said the closer role will be matchups based and then specifically brought up that Jeffress is a RHP and Smith is a LHP. That would probably mean Jeffress is the more often used closer, no?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Yep.
Just Wondering
12:19
Is David Peralta's ceiling closer to that of Carlos Gonzalez or Andre Ethier?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Ethier.
iron wolf
12:20
Dave: enjoy your insights so I was hoping you could weigh in on a question posed on Camden Depot. If you could optimize the Orioles lineup, how would you do it? I said: Machado, Jones, Alvarez, Davis, Trumbo, Wieters, Schoop, Kim and Hardy. The author says having two RHBs followed by two LHBs to start the lineup won't be employed by Showalter---he likes the righty-lefty sequence too much. Would it really matter to metrics guys like you if two RHBs were followed by two LHBs? Please share your thoughts.
Dave Cameron
12:21
I don't think going L-R-L matters all that much, especially in this day and age of relievers with specified roles. But that said, I don't think I'd hit Machado leadoff. I'd probably go something like Kim-Machado-Jones-Davis-Trumbo-Alvarez-Schoop-Wieters-Hardy
Springer am Rand
12:22
Why do mutual options exist? What's the difference between Dexter Fowler's 1 year/$8M + $9M mutual option with $5M buyout and a 1/$13M deal straight up? The only way the option gets picked up is if Fowler believes 1/$4M from the Cubs is the best he can do and the Cubs think 1/$4M for Fowler is in their interest, but if that's the case, they could just sign that deal without the mutual option existing.
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