Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
It's the final Wednesday before Opening Day.
Let's chat about the 2016 season, what to expect, last minute roster decisions, or whatever other baseball ideas come to your mind.
Luis Sojo
12:01
Who are the front-of-the-rotation pitchers most likely to be traded to contenders this season?
Dave Cameron
12:02
If Tyson Ross isn't traded at some point in the next few months, the Padres really screwed up.
Beyond him, maybe Sonny Gray if the A's collapse again?
Pennsy
12:03
Percent chance Jayson Werth finishes this season a starting outfielder?
Dave Cameron
12:03
60%. Revere and Taylor are both better in job-share roles, so unless the Nationals make a trade or Werth gets hurt, he should hang onto a mostly everyday job.
daneyko
12:03
Cody Anderson is probably the 4th SP with the Indians. Do you like him this season with better speed on his fastball ?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Velocity bumps are intriguing, but keep in mind that last year, Zach McAllister was the Indians SP suddenly throwing 97. That didn't work out so well.
eppa
12:04
Who are your bold prediction MVPs/CYs for both leagues?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Our staff predictions go up on Friday. I almost went with Mookie Betts as AL MVP, but backed off at the last minute.
RK
12:04
so if J. Reyes gets convicted and deported, the Rockies are off the hook for his salary right?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Yes. But that's probably an unlikely outcome. More likely is he gets suspended for half the season, then they say don't bother trying to come back for the second half anyway, and he gets released over the winter. I don't think Reyes ever plays for the Rockies again.
mtsw
12:06
How do you feel about the huge correlation between CF depth and CF effectiveness that StatCast has been showing? Should all CFs be playing as deep (or deeper) than Kiermeier? Or is this all a mirage caused by spotter bias in compiling advanced stats or something else?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I don't think playing deep is the cause of being an effective CF; I think the ability to play deep is an effect of having very good range. If you stuck a slow-footed guy in CF and just positioned him close to the wall, it would be a disaster.
Joe
12:07
Could Joey Rickard be a +2 WAR player this year?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Could? Sure. Odubel Herera was a rule 5 pick last year with a similar-ish skillset and had plenty of success. But it's not a great bet.
Who's on first
12:07
Holliday, Moss, Adams. Any idea how 1B will shake out for the Cardinals? I'd like to see Moss get regular at bats. You think that will happen?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I wouldn't be surprised if Holliday ended up as the full-time first baseman, with Moss/Pham platooning in left, and Adams traded.
Otis
12:08
How many PA's can John Jaso get with only 3 LHP starters in his division? Is there no chance he gets 475?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Well he's still going to get pinch-hit for on days he starts, and teams play out of division opponents too.
Socrates Brito
12:08
First im bench player, then im the next big sleeper, now im what?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Probably just a fourth outfielder. But that might be better than Yasmany Tomas!
Jason
12:09
Who's closing for Tampa Bay?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I'm still a believer in Danny Farquhar.
Bob Pollard
12:09
Put aside what Bryce Harper is "worth" in terms of what teams will offer him, does it really make sense for any team to pay, say, $40 million per year for 10 years to one guy, no matter how good he is?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Yes, of course it does.
12:11
If you don't have any problem with a team paying two guys $20 million per year (and no one does), and those guys are less than half as good as Harper (maybe $20M per year guys are), then you're better off with spending $40M (or more) on one great player. Yes, it consolidates risk, but it also raises a team's upside.
Sean
12:11
In his career, Ziegler has averaged 1.575 RA9-WAR per year yet only .5625 fWAR per year. He's obviously an outlier to FIP-based WAR, from his low BABIP (.277 career), low strikeout numbers, and extremely high GB%. Is it safe to say that Ziegler is more of a 1.5 WAR player instead of the 0.5625 fWAR player he's been, and as such, potentially add a win to his projected 0.5 fWAR next season?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Brad Ziegler has just over ~500 big league innings. A lot of pitchers outperform their peripherals for 500 innings. He's likely to be a bit better than his FIP projections suggest, but you still have to heavily regress the RA9 numbers. I'd go with something like +0.75 WAR for 2016.
BK
12:13
What game are you most excited for on Sunday?
Dave Cameron
12:13
I'm liveblogging Mets-Royals on Sunday night, so that one.
Elam
12:13
Your favorite sleeper for 2016?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Feels like people are underrating the Tigers to me.
Uncle Charlie
12:13
Orioles take the AL East. Am I crazy?
Dave Cameron
12:14
It could happen. It's the least likely outcome, but it's certainly possible.
Scott
12:14
Is Jesus Montero going to be the next Blue Jay offensive reclamation project?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Doesn't even sound like he's going to make their roster. I'd expect them to try and sneak him back through waivers.
Q-Ball
12:14
Enjoyed your article on Rusney Castillo. Speaking of underwhelming Cuban corner OF, what is your take on Yasmany Tomas? Will he progress this year, or is he Dayan Viciedo 2.0? How important is he to the D-Backs chances?
Dave Cameron
12:15
I think he's probably just not that good.
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