Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Hey all. I'm a bit under the weather at the moment -- kids are disease factories -- and I have to drive to the airport to fly to Toronto this afternoon, so we might not make it a full hour today. But I'll do my best.
Gerald
12:02
Braves have stated they "don't want to trade Ender Inciarte"...but will they trade him by 8/1?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Depends on how their first half goes. If they're hanging around .500 and see a legitimate chance to contend next year with Swanson and/or Albies added to the roster, then no. If they're playing .350 ball and see that 2017 is a likely rebuilding year too, maybe.
KI
12:03
Aaron Sanchez induced 16 whiffs yesterday, including 4 off his change up. Has this combined with a spring where he barely walked anyone changed your thoughts on him?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Certainly starts like this help. I'll remain skeptical of the dramatic command improvement until he does it over a longer period of time, but if he strings together a few of these, the prognosis will definitely get a lot better.
primantis
12:04
Has Trevor Story's performance in the first two games caused you to adjust your thoughts on his long term outlook, and if so how? Just two games, but the HRs were all no-doubters.
Dave Cameron
12:05
Not at all. No one questions the power; it's the rest of the offensive package that remains a bit questionable. As Jeff noted this spring, there just aren't many examples of extreme flyball shortstops, and if he hits the ball in the air as much as it looks like he might, he's probably going to be a low average/low OBP guy. So he'll need to hit a lot of bombs to be a star, but could probably settle in as a Tony Batista type even without improvement. And obviously, he's young enough to get better.
Pierre
12:05
Jose Bautista clearly just tried to hit Forsythe in the foot to throw him off, it had nothing to do with the actual slide. I don't get what all the hubbub is about.
Dave Cameron
12:06
I don't see how any non-Jays fan could look at that slide and not think "yeah, that's obviously interference." It wasn't even subtle. I get that fans of a team are always going to take their own guys side, but it was very clearly obstruction on Bautista's part.
Bryceroni
12:07
What do you pay attention to at the beginning of the season when there are very few data points available?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Mostly just look at pitchers; how's the velo, did they add new pitches, that kind of stuff.
Tom
12:08
How many plate appearances does it take of a specific hitter facing a specific pitcher to conclude whether one of them has the other guy's number?
Dave Cameron
12:09
More than any hitter and pitcher ever get within a reasonable period of time. It takes almost an entire career to rack up a few hundred data points, and when you've got a couple of 35 year olds facing off, how they did against each other when they were 26 isn't very relevant anymore.
mtsw
12:10
Obviously the rule was correctly applied, but a literally game-deciding situation overturned on replay has to be the league's nightmare for the first example of the new slide rule, no?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Yeah, not an ideal situation for MLB. But Bautista forced their hand.
Brad_in_NYC
12:11
Can we talk a second about Noah Syndergaard's 95mph slider yesterday? How crazy is that? It's not quite inventing a new pitch, but after all the talk (rightfully so) about Familia's 93mph splitter last year, how impressive is the uber-slider?
Dave Cameron
12:11
I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Syndergaard ended up as the best non-Kershaw pitcher in the NL this year. He might be better than Jose Fernandez at this point.
James
12:11
O/U on the Dodgers having the best NL bullpen
Dave Cameron
12:12
How do you take the over on something being the best?
I left my heart in Winston-Salem
12:13
I'm trying to recognize what pitches I'm seeing the pitcher throw. Do you know if they still have that website that has gifs for each of the pitches in a pitcher's arsenal?
Dave Cameron
Christian
12:13
So if we learned anything from the Yankees/Astros game yesterday, its that if a runner is running on the grass on the way to first, just throw the ball at him and risk him getting injured.
Dave Cameron
12:13
The fact that being out of the baseline isn't reviewable makes no sense to me. It was clear as day.
Mark
12:14
As a Reds fan I was surprised to see their projected ROS ranking in team WAR when I looked yesterday. They're still 6th from the bottom, but with some analysts predicting them as the worst team in baseball, I couldn't help but wonder is this injury regression or the mainstream underrating their rotation? I don't care about wins-losses this year, but maybe most folks are discounting some guys like DeSclafini a bit that they project above the DBacks. thanks.
Dave Cameron
12:14
Yeah, the Reds are the most potentially decent of the NL non-contenders. They're not good, but their line-up is actually just fine.
mtsw
12:15
In your opinion, should the front office have the authority to assign bullpen roles (or lack thereof) or should that be the manager's decision? There seems like there'd be clear principal agent problems in situations like Houston's where it's beneficial for the team financially to take a slight hit in performance.
Dave Cameron
12:16
It seems to me that the dynamics work best when the on-field staff gets to make decisions about how playing time is allocated. The front office should provide data and analysis to help inform the decision, but it seems like micromanaging to tell the field staff who should close or setup or hit where in the order.
Erik
12:17
With all the new sliding rules, is baserunning as a skill independent from speed no longer a skill? I don't want to sound like Goose, but breaking up double plays and plays at the plate was a fun niche skill that it would be sad to lose.
Dave Cameron
12:18
It has never been legal to grab the ankles of an infielder as you slid by. This isn't a new rule.
klof
12:18
Are the Astros actually pretty smart to use their best relief pitcher more flexibly in the 7th or 8th or 9th or whenever they face a high leverage situation instead of just always handing him the 9th? If you face Trout in the 8th ahead by 1 with runners on, I'd want Giles then, not an inning later when it might be too late.
Dave Cameron
12:19
Yeah, if you are willing to be flexible, having your best reliever available earlier in the game can be helpful.
j6takish
12:19
One year later, the Billy Butler contract has turned out exactly as everyone except beane predicted. Do you have any further insight as to the motivation? Or is it just as inexplicable as It was when it happened?
Dave Cameron
12:20
It seems like they thought they could buy low on a young-ish free agent and the kind of player they generally couldn't afford. But Butler just isn't very good.
Craig
12:21
How long will it take for hitters to adapt to Noah Syndergaard's new slider, or is it so nasty a pitch that they really won't?
Dave Cameron
12:21
How do you adapt to a mid-90s slider?
Mark
12:21
Everyone making these subpar comps to Trevor Story. He's not that bad.
Dave Cameron
12:21
Who is saying he's bad? I think he's got a shot to be a nice average player, maybe a bit better than that if he can get his Ks down. Nothing wrong with that at all.
12:22
But the contact issues are going to make stardom tough.
MVetts
12:22
I'm a biased Blue Jays fan, but to me, the punishment for Bautista's slide was like getting pulled over for driving 5 over the speed limit. Sure, it's against the rules, but how ticky-tacky is too ticky-tacky?
Dave Cameron
12:23
Do you really want runners to be able to grab fielders with their hands as they slide? The answer is obviously no, so when they do that, you have to call them out. The fact that Bautista did it in an extremely high leverage situation is his fault.
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