JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat | 5/4/2016

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Dave Cameron

12:20

Pretty much, yeah. There's no long career to protect here. You throw him until he breaks.

Concerned White Sox Fan

12:21

How long do you give Avisail Garcia at DH before you start looking elsewhere? Any trade partners that you see as a good fit for the White Sox for another bat?

Dave Cameron

12:21

I would have been looking for other options a month ago. The sooner they bench him, the better.

crying

3

yawn

2

THE MAN WITH THE PLAN

12:22

ANDREW BENINTENDI: WHAT SAY YOU?!

love

1

Dave Cameron

12:22

He's going to be fantastic.

Turbo

12:23

With several aces off to weak starts, what do you make of the theory that they are being given fewer borderline strikes? E.g., their status got them "benefit of the doubt" calls that they aren't getting now that the zone is being monitored more closely, and they haven't adjusted yet, sending walk rates way up

Dave Cameron

12:23

No real evidence to support it.

Bloodwaters of Dr. Z

12:23

Kid watching mind-numbing children's tv yet, or is that still to come?

Dave Cameron

12:23

He doesn't have any interest in screens. It's great.

cool

2

Bloodwaters of Dr. Z

12:24

What is Dave's drink of choice when he's out for dinner?

Dave Cameron

12:24

Water.

poo

12

yawn

10

vomit

6

sad

2

crying

2

Nelson

12:24

Would the return for Braun be higher now or at the trade deadine?

Dave Cameron

12:25

Teams aren't ready to trade yet, so in a month or two. Everyone always waits until after the draft to get serious about trade season.

Frankie Fast Hands

12:25

I was surprised to see you comment that Phillies won't catch Nats or Mets in the next two years likely. As a Nats fan I'm very worried about next year. Crawford, Williams, and decent pitching depth in upper minors. Weaknesses at 1st base and bullpen are easy to upgrade, and they have plenty of money. You really don't think they can be playoff contenders next year?

Dave Cameron

12:26

No; their current record is an illusion. The offense is atrocious -- 70 wRC+ right now -- and Crawford won't fix that by himself. The pitching gives them a higher floor than previously thought, but they need six or seven new hitters.

JTT

12:27

Dr. james Andrews being involved adds a lot of legitimacy to Sandovals injury but why was the whole situation so sketchy and secretive?

Dave Cameron

12:27

Well there's a federal law that protects patients health records.

love

1

Dr. Frank Jobe

12:27

Should Boston pull the trigger and get Ryan Braun as you suggested, do they become the team to beat in the AL?

Dave Cameron

12:28

I think so, yes.

poo

5

vomit

1

Eddie Oropesa

12:28

You mentioned on Twitter last night that the Phils may have an ace in Nola. His ceiling was basically universally accepted as a #3, likely because of velocity limitations. But we've seen a ton of "#1s" throw in the 90-92 range. When can we start to make that distinction for a guy like Nola?

Dave Cameron

12:29

Obviously he needs to do this for more than a month, but the command looks pretty great, and it's not easy to run a 30% strikeout rate and 50% groundball rate for even a month; he's better than advertised.

Erik

12:29

BaseRuns has the Cardinals as the third best team in the league so far. Do you buy that?

Dave Cameron

12:30

BaseRuns isn't forecasting anything, it's just saying they've played like a team that deserves a better record than they have. I don't believe Aledmys Diaz and Jeremy Hazelbaker will keep hitting .450, no.

Christian

12:30

Is it too early to just give up as a Yankees fan? There's gotta be something...right?

Dave Cameron

12:31

They have something like a 125 ERA- and an 85 xFIP-. The results will improve.

B Bop

12:31

If Corey Seager has a career that is more or less identical to his brother Kyle's, would that be considered successful for him, or disappointing?

cool

1

Dave Cameron

12:31

Successful.

PhilsPhan

12:32

The Phillies are 16-11, but projections still have them finishing at 70 wins for the season. In order to do that, they need to have a RoS W% of .319. Looking at monthly records from last season, they only managed to dip below that W% one month. Considering the improvements this team has made from last year to this, doesn't 70 wins seem low?

Dave Cameron

12:32

I think your math is off; we have them playing .400 ball the rest of the way in order to finish 70-92. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Brett

12:32

It sounds like multiple Braves beat writers think Albies and Swanson could be up in the second half. Wouldn't that be a mistake in terms of team control?

Dave Cameron

12:33

The team control deadline is already passed, and Super Two will pass in about six weeks. After that, it doesn't matter when they come up.

Curtis

12:34

What is the single greatest factor in prospect failure? With the information as deep as it is these days on players, it seems odd that as many top prospects fail to even make it to the big leagues... it's also part of what's enjoyable about the game - not the failure but the rise of others and the anticipation of a Correa or Harper as well...

Dave Cameron

12:34

I would guess it's work ethic.

poo

3

Nick

12:35

50/50 odds or better that Swihart is traded for a pitcher at the deadline?

Dave Cameron

12:35

Not sure it will be for a pitcher, but I'd bet his Red Sox career is over.

Scotty

12:35

Any change the Nats trade for both Lucroy and Braun, maybe including Werth to offset salary?

Dave Cameron

12:35

Ramos hitting well probably make that unlikely.

Jerry

12:35

The Cubs are off to a pretty incredible start yet, as a Cubs fan, I still find myself somewhat bummed about the Kyle Schwarber injury. And feel like eventually he will be missed dearly. The statistical community seems to have mostly minimized the loss since the day the news broke. I'm curious why that is. (and if you respond, please offer up something more than "doesn't look like they've missed him so far")

Dave Cameron

12:36

The difference between Schwarber and Soler in left just isn't that huge, especially since Baez is also showing some value and getting playing time due to the injury.

Josh

12:36

Best guess as to when Washington calls up Turner?

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