Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:02
Alright, let's do this.
Ben
12:02
Cubs vs Red Sox World Series.
Dave Cameron
12:02
Certainly possible. Probably even the most likely option at this point.
12:03
But most likely WS match-up is still like a 100-1 shot or something.
Drew
12:03
Having trouble finding the Trade Value series. What am I doing wrong? Also, when do we get new ones?
Dave Cameron
The series runs every year during the All-Star break.
Mike
12:04
I call this the Maddon Hurdle. Are these two managers leaping into the new era of successful baseball management, or are they just mad scientists stirring the pot?
Dave Cameron
12:05
It's not just those two; it's the entire organizations buying in. You can't just put Maddon or Hurdle in any dugout and expect instant transformation. Those guys are part of a larger process, but both deserve lot of credit for figuring out how to get their players to buy in.
Brian
12:05
Javier Baez still running a quite elevated swinging strike rate. K rate will almost certainly rise some unless something else changes. But he can be a pretty usefully guy if he can K less than 30% of the time right? Short of a star perhaps. But the defense looks pretty slick and the power is legit if he can make enough contact.
Dave Cameron
12:05
Yeah, he and Trevor Story have a lot of similarities.
Almond joy
12:05
Is a package centered around conforto and matz almost enough to land trout? Is that something that could actually make sense for both teams?
Dave Cameron
12:05
It would take a lot more.
Fire Derek Shelton
12:06
What do we make of Logan Morrison, he of the -9 wRC+, and how should the Rays use him going forward?
Dave Cameron
12:06
He's bad, he's been bad for a while, and I don't know why the Rays traded for him in the first place.
Leo
12:07
After your article last week, you are probably with crazy Trout trades, but I figured I'd send mine as well: Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley Jr. for Trout? Maybe even swap Pujols and Hanley contracts or add a pitching prospect if that is too light. This may be crazy in either direction. My feeble brain can't handle what an actual Trout trade would look like.
Dave Cameron
12:07
Not enough.
Putting the Pujols contract in may make it work, but I don't think anyone will take that deal.
CecilFielder
12:08
I am getting my mba from top school and looking to enter a baseball front office. Where should I look first?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Your local comp sci department to learn how to code.
Brett W
12:08
The Cubs have an 80% chance of not winning the World Series despite being one of the best teams of the FanGraphs era. Assuming they are almost bulletproof to make the playoffs, are there reasonable moves they can make to become a greater playoff favorite? Or does the acquisition cost outweigh the benefits even for a team in win now mode?
Dave Cameron
12:09
They could use a dominant LH reliever. If the Yankees put Chapman or Miller on the market, they should be in on them. Chapman might not want to pitch the middle innings, though, and getting an LH to close wouldn't help as much, so Miller probably better fit.
Brian
12:11
Is it fair to say that Fangraphs projections overrated the Dodgers? Every aspect about the team, besides Kershaw and Jansen, screams mediocre. We are going on a month and a half into the season and the offense still isn't hitting. Joe Blanton is now the 8th inning guy, and Kazmir and Wood aren't getting it done consistently. 80-85 win team?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Alex Wood has an 89 xFIP-; he was at 84 and 86 in his two good years in ATL. If you think Seager, Gonzalez, Puig and Turner will hit this poorly all year, you're mistaken. And even with those guys not hitting, the team has a 19-14 BaseRuns record. Oh, and Julio Urias will be up shortly. So, basically, no, the Dodgers are still really good, and your perception of them is still off.
Pale Hose
12:14
What is your best guess for Manny Machado's true talent wRC+ right now?
Dave Cameron
12:14
140ish. Which, for an elite defender, is amazing.
The Hamburglar
12:15
With Strasburg's signing, are we going to see significant over pays in terms of trading for SP next offseason? Even beyond the A's and Sonny Gray, should teams like the Indians/Rays try to cash in? I can't imagine what Archer would fetch back.
Dave Cameron
12:15
Yeah, whenever there is a supply shortage, teams are incentivized to fill the gaps. I'd bet we'll see some teams marketing SPs to interested buyers in hopes of taking advantage of the lack of good free agent options.
TKDC
12:16
Do you consider pitcher's pick-offs to be a part of defense or a part of "pitching"? Do pitchers get all of the credit for them, WAR -wise?
Dave Cameron
12:17
I consider it to be part of their defense. They don't get credit for it in our WAR calculation right now -- they do in RA9-WAR, since that includes all defensive performance too -- but that's clearly a weakness of the calculation, and giving the pitchers credit for their ability to control the running game is a natural place to improve.
David
12:18
Jose De Leon, Frankie Montas, Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo for Mike Trout. Who hangs up first?
Dave Cameron
12:18
The Angels.
TKDC
12:18
I'm sure the Nats did a physical, but does the timing of this signing raise any suspicions to you, that Strasburg/Boras know something is up with his arm?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Nope. Strasburg apparently is really comfortable in DC and wanted to stay.
Cave Dameron
12:19
More bullish on Ozzie Albies or Dansby Swanson? Who moves to 2B and who stays at SS?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Swanson is the higher upside guy, Albies the higher floor. I'll take Swanson, and guess Albies moves to 2B.
Colin
12:19
Have you ever done anything irrational?
Dave Cameron
12:19
I had a kid.
Chris
12:19
When will the Nats call up Trea Turner?
Dave Cameron
12:20
I'll guess June 4th.
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