Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Erik
12:46
True or false: Syndergaard's improvements shouldn't have surprised us, because he's still so young, and the aging curve is steep for young players.
Dave Cameron
12:47
False. The aging curve for pitchers is basically a downward-sloping line.
Nick
12:47
The Red Sox are clearly the best team in the AL. True or false?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Clearly is too strong, but I'd agree that they are the best team.
Gary
12:48
This is kind of a separate point, seems relevant: aren't most nerd communities extremely white?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Yeah, but this is a nerdy niche within a larger community that isn't just super white. Again, I don't have the answer on how to do this, but at some point, we have to figure out how to have this kind of appreciation for baseball be accessible to non-whites who also love this game. There are a lot of them.
XYZ
12:50
You defended the Porcello extension and it's about the same as what Tanaka has left. You'd rather have Porcello? Based on one month of moderate success?
Dave Cameron
12:50
I don't think anyone would claim the Porcello contract right now either.
XYZ
12:50
Would Felix Hernandez get claimed off waivers?
Dave Cameron
12:51
I think so, but I'm not sure.
The change-up is so good that he can get by without a good fastball, but he's clearly not anything like an ace anymore.
Salvia Plath
12:52
I look at Sean Newcomb and I see a guy with potential who can't stop walking people. What are the odds he actually makes the majors at some point?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Sometimes these guys figure it out. Most times, they end up as relievers.
j6takish
12:53
Re: year being 60 days. How would this effect journeyman players? Guys who are 28 or 29 who only get jobs because they are cheap and under team control. Would they all be free agents...?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Guys like that don't cost significantly less in free agency than in their arb years. It won't matter much for them.
mathenaging '16
12:54
do you have an opinion on that 150+ pitch performance for that high schooler?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I'm not sure which one you mean, because there are a lot of them. This is a pretty clear case of a moral hazard, as the coach gets all the benefit without taking on any of the risk. This is why regulations exist, because human beings won't make the optimum choices in a case where they can spend someone else's value to benefit themselves.
Archie
12:56
So what would you peg Julio Teheran as? A #4/5 starter or long man on a contender? Wondering if the my Red Sox would have interest? Thanks
Dave Cameron
12:57
He's a ~2.5 WAR pitcher who relies heavily on weak contact, and whose stuff is going the wrong way. He has value, but he's more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guy, and the wheels could come off at any time.
Which is basically exactly what we said about Shelby Miller six months ago.
Pedro Cerrano
12:57
What kind of hitter is Mikael Franco?
Dave Cameron
12:58
An overly aggressive slugger.
pirates hurdles
12:59
"False. The aging curve for pitchers is basically a downward-sloping line." True regarding velocity, but not true regarding performance. Seems like the majority of pitchers get better with MLB experience. Is there a study that suggests otherwise?
Dave Cameron
1:00
Yes, a lot of them. Google "Pitcher Aging Curves"
Oliver
1:00
Kershaw for MVP?
Nels
1:02
Teheran's slider is the best it's ever looked, he's changing speeds more effectively, and his fastball is up a tick from last year. So how is his stuff trending in the wrong direction?
Dave Cameron
1:02
Teheran's average fastball velo in 2015: 91.2. 2016: 90.1. I know Braves fans are in love with this guy, but you don't get your own facts.
Pumpsie Green
1:03
Do you see the union asking to double the minimum salary to $1 million, and what kind of traction would that get this winter?
Dave Cameron
1:04
I think it goes up, but doesn't get doubled. This CBA negotiation might be as much a fight between high and low revenue owners as owners and players, and teams with lower payrolls would be disproportionately hurt by a drastic increase in the league minimum.
Jeff
1:04
No player who plays at most 20% of the 162 games should be considered for MVP.
Dave Cameron
1:05
A batter gets credit for a game played by hitting three or four times; Kershaw gets credit for a game pitched by facing 30 batters. These are not the same thing, as should be obvious.
1:06
Alright, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out everyone. Yes, even you Julio Teheran truthers.
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