Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Welcome to June. This is the month where we'll probably start separating out some of the teams that wanted to contend but can't, and after the draft next week, we'll start to see some real traction pick up in trade talk.
12:02
Or we can just talk about Mookie Betts the whole time too. That works as well.
David
12:02
Who would you rather sign as a FA, Machado or Harper?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Well, depends entirely on cost, but Harper is the safer choice. Machado is amazing, but he does also have two knee surgeries under his belt already.
Jake
12:04
Why do you think the Mariners are calling up Paxton this early in the season
Dave Cameron
12:04
Either Felix is hurt (certainly possible) or they're shuffling the rotation to have him pitch this weekend against Texas.
Dave P
12:04
Dave - I am confused on how defensive ratings are calculated for first basemen. Almost all 1b (with qualified pa) have a negative defensive number. Shouldn't there be a more typical distribution between positive and negative ratings?
Dave Cameron
12:05
The DEF number includes the position adjustment, so it's defensive value relative to all defenders, and first baseman are playing that position because they can't play other spots on the field. If you just want a fielding rating that is average for that position, look at UZR or DRS.
Guy
12:05
Lucroy and Braun traded as package. Would you be surprised?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Not at all. Braun still has negative trade value, so the easiest way to move his contract without making it obvious that it's a salary dump is to attach him to something with real value, like Lucroy.
Phillip
12:08
What should the Dodgers do if Alex Wood is seriously hurt?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Probably would be time to start kicking the tires on trades. Wouldn't need a frontline guy, but getting a solid innings eater to bridge the gap until McCarthy or Ryu return would be worth exploring.
Erik
12:09
What is Mike Trout doing to provide the second-most Baserunning value with only 6 SBs? Is he just that much better at choosing when to take an extra base than everyone else? What an oddly specific skill to have, but of course Trout would be the one to have it.
Dave Cameron
12:10
Well, it's a combination of speed (which he's always had) and just being an excellent judge of when to go first to third or second to home. But there's definitely a correlation between those baserunning abilities and raw footspeed.
Erik
12:11
Will contracts such as Ryan Howard's, or the end of Pujols' or Fielder's, discourage GMs from signing players of that profile to such long deals in the future? Will it always be in teams' interests to take that kind of a future hit, or is there a possibility for teams to get smarter here?
Dave Cameron
12:11
We're probably done with 10 year deals for 30+ 1Bs for a while.
12:12
The problem isn't necessarily giving out a big money contract; it's that those teams picked the wrong guys to give it to.
The Hamburglar
12:12
It's really hard seeing any AL contending team being better than the Red Sox, both right now and come October. Who has the best case for beating them?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Toronto, if they can get their offense going and fix their bullpen, could be a tough opponent.
Brahman
12:13
Do you see the Astros bringing up Bregman to play 3rd or LF sooner than later this season?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Yeah, I'd bet he's their third baseman within a month.
Hugh Glass
12:14
I have heard Andrew Miller mentioned as a possible name that the Giants might pursue, but what prospect capital do they have that would net them someone like that? I feel like Miller has a lot of name value and they'd be better served targeting someone like Will Smith if the objective is to get another LHP in the bullpen
Dave Cameron
12:14
If the Yankees make Miller available, there will be a bidding war, no question. Smith won't be cheap if he proves he's healthy either, though.
Murdoc
12:15
Pulling Kershaw in the eighth to bring in another lefty, good or bad idea?
Dave Cameron
12:15
I'm fine with it. Kershaw was running out of gas.
Maud
12:16
Project a Lucroy trade please.
Dave Cameron
12:16
Friends in the game still think he goes to Texas. Not that hard to see a deal built around Profar and some other stuff.
Erik
12:17
Would a shrunken strike zone accelerate the shift in balance of power from control pitchers to power pitchers? Control pitchers wouldn't be able to paint the same corners any more, though on the other hand, power pitchers with shaky control may have an even tougher time avoiding walks.
Dave Cameron
12:17
Raising the bottom of the zone isn't the same thing as shrinking it equally; the inside and outside corners would be unchanged. Guys like Carlos Silva had nice careers even before the bottom of the zone got huge.
Daniel
12:18
Who, in your opinion, is having the quietest great season thus far?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Ian Kinsler
Sirras
12:18
What should I make for dinner?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Has anyone ever made tacos and then regretted it?
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:18
What team appears to you to have the bleakest overall future outlook, when taking current talent level and farm system strength into account? How about the best?
Dave Cameron
12:19
I just don't see a reasonable path forward for the Padres to avoid being miserable for the foreseeable future. And I'd imagine every team in baseball would take the Cubs situation if they could.
Bork
12:20
Bethancourt's game got me thinking. Do you think there will ever be a niche position player/pitcher utility role?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Yes. As the game moves more and more towards frequent pitching changes, the value of having a guy who can serve as a defensive replacement or innings-eating reliever will only increase.
Sirras
12:22
Is Mookie Betts excelling because of or in spite of the reasons you expected?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Well we didn't expect him to be a low-BB/high-ISO guy, but part of that is just how pitchers are pitching him. Eventually, I think they'll start pitching around him more, and the walks will go up, with the power probably coming down a bit.
Mark
12:22
What's your view on Zobrist RoS? Does he crash at some point, or could we be looking at a career-best (if not totally absurd) season from him?
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