Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:06
Sorry for being a few minutes late today. With the trade deadline just a month away, I'm guessing most of the questions we'll get to today are about who is going where, Or about the adorable golden retriever puppy who just left his owner and picked me at the local Starbucks...
If I don't answer for a few minutes, it's because I've decided petting the dog takes priority.
Frank
12:07
If the Red Sox were to deal for Teheran and Vizcaino, what's a realistic expectation for what we'd have to give up? Would Benintendi be necessary with Dombrowski's history of giving up young players?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I'm guessing Benintendi is off limits. Steamer projects him as an above-average big league hitter right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if they saw him as their Michael Conforto. I know they're saying the right things about leaving him down right now, but if he gets hot and they are still struggling to get LF production in left, I bet he finishes the year in Fenway.
12:09
That said, Coppy has made it pretty clear he wants big league talent back, not low level guys, so if they say Benintendi is off the table, I'm not sure the fit there is as strong as everyone assumes.
Matt
12:09
Schwarber and good not great prospect for Miller and Chapman. Who say no?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Probably the Yankees. I think they'll do better splitting them up.
RJ
12:10
Does Fangraphs' RA9-WAR not adjust for defense? Jim Palmer has 91.6 RA9-WAR, compared to 68.1 on B-Ref.
Dave Cameron
12:11
Correct; RA9-WAR gives all credit for all run prevention to the pitcher. We present FIP-based WAR and RA9-WAR as two opposite ends of the spectrum, and acknowledge that the truth for pitchers is almost always in between.
Steely Dan
12:11
So does a Sonny Gray trade look something like two top 50 prospects and a fringe top 100 guy, but not necessarily a super talent like Moncada or Bregman?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Top 50 is too vague a term, really. If you're talking about a guy actually ranked #50, that's not going to get it done, but if we consider guy in the 10-25 range as a "top 50 guy", then sure. But yeah, I think it's exceedingly unlikely that any of the elite minor leaguers get moved this summer, and Moncada and Bregman are in that group of guys that teams just aren't going to think about moving, most likely.
Zorak
12:13
At this stage, should the mets "go for it" and try to aggressively upgrade the team at the expense of the future, or sell off spare parts and try to retool for 2017?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Those aren't the only two options. I think you make smart upgrades where you can, with Danny Valencia still looking like the best fit to me.
Guest
12:14
Were the Brewers right holding on to Lucroy this winter? They're going to get closer to their asking price now than they were in January, right?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Yes, I think so.
baby bull
12:14
Rank the Phillies top 5 assets
Dave Cameron
12:15
1. Crawford 2. Nola 3. Herrera 4. Franco 5. Payroll
Yes, #5 is kind of a joke, but I'm not betting on Velasquez holding up as a long-term starter.
Tony
12:16
Has Stanton started turning his slump around?
Dave Cameron
12:16
There was no reason to think he was going to continue to be terrible, so sure.
Barack O.
12:16
Trevor Bauer has looked fantastic, am I wrong in thinking he's following the same line as Carrasco?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Too soon.
Guest
12:17
You've been given $1 million to spend on a small market team, with every increased win over the previous season earning you $1 million for yourself. What do you spend that $1 million on?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Lessons in the problems with moral hazards for my owner, so he knows what a silly incentive structure he's created.
Ryan
12:19
Dave, I asked Mr. Eno this on Twitter the other day but he didn't have an answer for me. Super curious about WAR.

I’m looking at Kevin Kiermaier (2014) vs Randall Grichuk (2015) as they seem to be very comparable cases. 364 PA, 842 Innings played in the outfield (298 CF, 526 RF) for Kiermaier, 350 PA/719 defensive innings (344/282/93 split) for Grichuk.

Obviously the playing time slightly favors KK, but by what I see as negligible amount (that can be first question, I guess).

KK has 14 defensive runs saved, RG has 7 DRS.

KK O-line : 263/315/450. 333 wOBA, 117 wRC+

RG O-line : 276/329/548. 370 wOBA, 137 wRC+

KK WAR - 4.0
RG WAR - 3.1

KK and RG both + defenders with RG having a significantly better offensive season.
How do we get this big of a discrepancy in WAR, with KK being worth more than a win over RG? I know KK the clearly superior defender, but are there really that many outlier plays that a ++ defender can get to in the outfield over just an above average one?
Dave Cameron
12:19
You can always view the exact breakdown of the WAR components on the leaderboards. Here's the link to the value section for 2014, for those two players. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=11038,10243
baby bull
12:20
How long until Willson Contreras is best offensive catcher in league? tommorow? 3 years?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves; he's a long way from being Buster Posey.
Pessimistic White Sox Fan
12:22
The White Sox may relocate to greener pastures within the next 20 years? The attendance numbers are not pretty.
Dave Cameron
12:22
The odds of MLB taking a team out of a market like Chicago are basically zero.
mtsw
12:22
Orioles are now almost even with the Red Sox in Fangraphs' division odds. Does that seem about right to you or would you still say the Red Sox are the favorites?
Dave Cameron
12:22
I'd still take the Red Sox. They have far more assets to use in mid-summer upgrades, for one.
Rick
12:22
Are new FG shirts still happening?
Dave Cameron
12:23
They are; the first batch were given out at the Staten Island Yankees nerd-fest a couple of weeks ago. So they actually exist.
Mike S.
12:23
Given how young so many of the J2 players who will be signing this week are, should Braves/Padres/Astros fans temper their expectations a bit regarding the "future of the franchise" who is signing next week?
Dave Cameron
12:23
Yeah, getting too excited over 16 year olds is a great way to get disappointed. 90% of these kids will never make the big leagues.
Mike
12:24
What kind of return does bud norris get the braves? On one hand, he's been great recently, but on the other, he's still bud norris
Dave Cameron
12:24
Yeah, I think track record will mostly win out there. Teams aren't going to give up premium talent for him. The Braves can probably get a mid-level upside play, but I'd be surprised if they got a legitimate top prospect for him.
Erik
12:25
Is it possible to make the case that last year's Bryce Harper with his 197 wRC+ was largely a fluke, and that his 133 this year is closer to his true level, making him a very good rather than elite player?
Dave Cameron
12:25
You can make a case for just about anything, but that doesn't mean it'd be correct. This one would be wrong.
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