Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Owen
12:17
What would a Drew Pomeranz to Boston trade look like? Seems like he's getting somewhat overlooked as a deadline option. His breakout seems pretty legitimate and he's controlled through 2018--long enough for it to be worthwhile to give up real assets for him, but not long enough for the Padres to realistically consider him a post-rebuild core piece (as the Braves might say about Teheran).
Dave Cameron
12:17
Would imagine the Padres would want a guy like Devers as a headliner, plus some other stuff. They're going to hang a high price tag on him.
Erik
12:18
Lots of prospects ranking quite high on your trade value rankings. Is that reflecting a league-wide wide shift in player valuation, and if so, what's behind that shift?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Yes, the game is getting younger in a hurry, and teams are adjusting their valuations to account for this. With everyone now skeptical that players will age well, no one wants to give up players that might perform just as well for a fraction of the cost and get stuck with a guy on the decline.
Mark P
12:19
B Belt or F Freeman? Similar production and remaining contract. Who would you rather have?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Belt.
JD
12:19
If the season ended today would Bryant or Kershaw be the NL MVP?
Dave Cameron
12:19
I'd vote Kershaw. Not sure about the voters.
Erik
12:20
Who is the hypothetical trade partner in your trade value series? A playoff contender? An average team? Whichever team will pay the most?
Dave Cameron
12:20
The aggregate demand of the league as a whole. The buyers wouldn't be the same for Moncada and Harper, but the market would still bear out their value through bidding wars for both.
stanton's home run bat
12:20
since you talked about lucroy to the red sox, do you believe that also acquiring another starter (say j. guerra) in any deal would help "sweeten the pot"?
Dave Cameron
12:20
Yep. Guerra isn't a Dombrowski type though.
Andrew
12:21
Seeing as he didn't make your Trade Value list or honorable mention, what's your long-term outlook on Odubel Herrera?
Dave Cameron
12:22
I like Odubel, and I think he's a valuable piece, but he's also a guy who was a rule 5 guy 18 months ago. Like with Jose Quintana, it might take teams a while to get over the fact that they missed on him as a minor leaguer.
Erik
12:22
Does Harper still deserve to be in the same tier as Trout? Or is he best placed in the next tier along with Machado, Bogaerts, etc?
Dave Cameron
12:23
Harper is not in Trout's tier this year, no. He's still super valuable, but not at the top.
Tom
12:23
If the Red Sox win the division and Ortiz keeps up his current pace, how high could he finish in the MVP voting?
Dave Cameron
12:24
Top 3, probably. Think Donaldson/Trout have to be 1-2 at this point.
Okra
12:24
This offseason, do you think the Pirates trade Austin Meadows or make room for him by moving one of Marte/McCutch/Polanco? Going to be a tough call
Dave Cameron
12:24
I think they can push the decision for another year. Spending a few more months in Triple-A won't kill Meadows, will get them an extra service time year, and can let them figure out if they're contenders in 2017 or not.
jeff
12:25
I saw you mention in passing in the comments section for one of your Trade Value posts that the AL is the superior league. Is this really the case?
Dave Cameron
12:25
Yes, and it's been that way for a while.
Zach
12:25
In the intro to the Trade Value piece, you mentioned that teams still don't really pay for defense (re: Simmons trade). What's your opinion as to why? Too variable? We're not measuring it right? Declines too quickly?
Dave Cameron
12:26
More uncertainty surrounding it, harder to project it going forward, ability to potentially mask it with positioning/shifting, tradition.
Slew
12:26
August's glowing article notwithstanding, Naquin and his .418 BABIP are fool's gold, right?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Yes.
Gest
12:27
Can you educate me on what Super 2 is?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Guys who end up in the top 20% of service time among players with 2+ years of service get to go to arbitration a year early. Generally, this means that guys like Bryant, who get called up right after the service time window passes, get four arbitration trips instead of three.
Guest
12:28
Would a long term deal for Springer make sense for the Astros? he's about to hit arb would something like 6/110 work for both sides?
Dave Cameron
12:28
That seems way too steep. Even as a Super Two, he probably won't get more than $40-$50M in his arb years, so you'd be paying $30 million a year for two free agent years.
JTT
12:29
Given J-Ups struggles this year combined with the struggles his brother had at a similar age (I know it isn't fair), theres basically no chance he opts out after next year right? He'd have to have a pretty monster year
Dave Cameron
12:30
Yeah, the Tigers are probably stuck with that deal now.
Michael
12:30
Re: Lucas Giolito - To this amateur his stuff looked "meh" and his minor league numbers aren't that great. Specifically his K/BB and WHIP rates which suggest command issues. Why are scouts so high on him?
Dave Cameron
12:30
I think Petriello noted that the spin rates on his fastball and curve are near top of the scale; stuff isn't always just about velocity, though he has that too.
CameronDaClub
12:31
In your series, you've mentioned a few times the lack of quality arms available right now. Are your player valuations meant to reflect the specifics of today's market? Or more reflect how a player would be valued on a "standard" (whatever that might mean) market?
Dave Cameron
12:31
The Trade Value series is a snapshot in time, and reflects what we know about a player and the market right now.
Thus, Carpenter missing the list because he's currently hurt, even though it's not a long-term serious injury.
Guest
12:32
Any non obvious tips for a soon to be dad? having a baby girl in september.
Dave Cameron
12:33
People mean well, but you'll drive yourself crazy listening to everyone's advice. Pick a good pediatrician and trust them, and then just smile and nod at everyone who tells you they've figured out the magic secret.
Okra
12:34
Manfred stated that he is concerned about attracting young and minority fans/talent to MLB. Isn't it time ownership starts trying to put game *on* tv instead of severely restricting access to local team broadcasts? I know tv $$$ are very important but so is exposure and engagement. Thought?
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