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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:20
Both guys are likely to pitch better in their new cities, leading both team's fanbases to claim they won the trade.
Definitely Frank
12:21
I've been hitting it off with a girl via text, but she never initiates the conversation. Problem?
Dave Cameron
12:21
I wonder what it is about me that caused you to think "I bet this guy knows his way around the ladies."
Josh
12:22
Do you think Wade Davis or Andrew Miller move and do they actually get a bigger package than Yankees got for Chapman? I realize they should be worth more cause of the added control but how do you turn down ~50+ M in value for ~25-30 M...
Dave Cameron
12:22
I don't think either of those guys gets traded, no. The prices are just too high.
Joe
12:22
If you're the Rangers, would you give up Profar and Gallo for Sale?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Without even thinking about it. He's worth both those guys and a lot more.
Jason
12:23
Seems like you and some of the other writers at Fangraphs have really wrestled with the question of Chapman's value to the Cubs RoS. I think this is the right way to go about it, seeing as there is a lot of gray area with reliever value. Meanwhile, there is a sect of analytical baseball writers that flat-out dismiss his value to the club as a rental, and are just going the "The Cubs are being stupid" route. I *feel* like the latter group is vastly understating Chapman's value, but it's hard to make a real argument against it without saying something silly like "The Cubs are smart. I trust them". What would your argument be in this instance? Or do you find yourself more aligned with the ppl that think the Cubs simply made a bad move?
Dave Cameron
12:25
I think the Cubs overpaid, and I think they know they probably overpaid, but I think they viewed that as a better option than doing nothing. And I think that's probably reasonable. For instance, my wife and I are currently house shopping for a new home given our impending move to Oregon, and there's a house that we like, but I think the current asking price is probably $10-$15K too high. But if we don't buy that house, we might end up renting, and so I'm weighing whether it's better to "overpay" for this house versus have to move several times with a small kid, not be able to really settle in, not be able to paint his room, etc... Sometimes, you can rationalize paying a higher price for something than you think that thing is worth if you don't like the alternatives.
LarryA
12:26
Any thought as to moving relievers way higher in your trade value rankings next year? Gotta think Betances, Kenley, a few other, could return a kings ransom if moved.
Dave Cameron
12:27
Kenley is a pending free agent, so he'd get something like the Chapman deal, and none of the guys the Cubs gave up were anywhere near the trade value list. Betances is probably the most valuable RP in the game right now, contract included, but I still don't think he'd bring back more than a good young starter like Jon Gray or Carlos Martinez.
Rob
12:28
Who takes the AL West?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Houston.
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12:28
How big of a mistake is the Yankees apparent refusal to trade Miller? Have to believe the Nats or someone else will pay through the nose.
Dave Cameron
12:28
Well they just tried to charge the Cubs a through-the-nose price and the Cubs wouldn't pay it.
Joel
12:29
Is there a baseball park that you haven't been to, but you'd like to?
Dave Cameron
12:29
Pittsburgh. Trying to figure out a way to get there before I move west.
Lucas
12:29
Settle a popular argument in the Pirates community - Is Mark Melancon a realistic QO candidate?
Dave Cameron
12:29
Yes.
rustydude
12:29
How often do you get wind of a possible trade before it shows up on MLB Trade Rumors site?
Dave Cameron
12:30
Occasionally. I've got enough friends in the game that I'll hear stuff sometimes, but Rosenthal/Heyman are so connected that they get 95% of stuff before anyone else.
JD
12:30
Which contender do you think has the single biggest need?
Dave Cameron
12:31
The Rangers SPs after Hamels/Darvish are a dumpster fire.
E
12:31
Probably safe to say Dodgers missed out on the better buying opportunity last year for a top tier SP (Hamels) than possible this year. Best off trying to trade off some system depth for RP's this year?
Dave Cameron
12:32
No, they made the right call passing on Hamels.
And this idea that the team that leads MLB in pitching WAR needs another high-end starter remains silly.
Slew
12:32
I know we're all looking for post hoc justifications for the the price the Cubs paid for Chapman, but it's insane, right?
Dave Cameron
12:33
I don't know that it's insane. It's an overpay, definitely, but one of the main arguments for not making trades like this is that you could use that prospect capital to acquire a different upgrade. But what else were the Cubs going to upgrade?
Alex
12:34
Does fWAR take into account the leverage of the innings pitched? Im particularly wondering in the case of high leverage relievers like closers. It feels odd that a great closer would only provide 2-3 additional wins over a replacement level closer.
Dave Cameron
12:34
Yes, leverage is included.
12:35
And keep in mind that there's no such thing as a "replacement level closer". If a stud goes down, they don't put the minor league callup into the 9th inning. He gets replaced by another good reliever (usually), and then everyone just gets bumped up in role.
CameronDaClub
12:36
Two years ago this question would've been stupid, but now I'm less certain -- does Felix make the HOF?
Dave Cameron
12:36
I'm not confident about any starting pitcher. The voters won't put Mussina or Schilling in, and they have impeccable resumes. The bar for a starting pitcher to clear right now is stupid.
Sublime-a-rita
12:37
As time has gone on, it kinda looks like the Brewers are going to hold Lucroy and Braun, think they are both in different unis on Aug 2?
Dave Cameron
12:37
They'll trade Lucroy. They can trade Braun in August if they want, since he'll clear waivers, so there's no time pressure there.
Warrior
12:37
Dave, after this season, Elvis Andrus has 6 years/$88M guaranteed left on his deal. He projects to about a 2.2 win season this year. My friends says the Rangers will likely trade him in the offseason, and will have no trouble doing so. i think that contract/production makes him untradable. Thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Yeah, no one's taking that contract right now. Especially with the opt-outs; if he plays well for the new team, they lose him. He's an underwater contract.
Ryan
12:38
On the podcast you said that, other than one of the Yankees lefties, there weren't any other opportunities for the Cubs to improve via trade. Seems to me like they could use some help in the OF. Would Josh Reddick make sense?
Dave Cameron
12:39
How much better is Reddick than Contreras/Soler/Almora, really? A little bit, sure, but it's not a huge improvement.
Guesto
12:39
True or False: Miller to Nationals for one of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Victor Robles, Joe Ross or Trea Turner became inevitable after last night.
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