Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:52
My five year remission mark is ~a month away. We're planning a big party. Thanks for asking!
Guest
12:53
If the Red Sox were willing to include both Moncada and Benintendi for Sale, do you think the White Sox would make the trade?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Yes.
But I don't think Boston would do that.
Aaron
12:53
You said "appeals to authority don't qualify as good analysis", but aren't you already sort of appealing to authority by giving the trade so much thought? I feel like if Dave Stewart made the same trade he would just be killed for it instantly.
Dave Cameron
12:54
Can you show me an example of a time where Dave Stewart (or a similar GM) made this kind of deal and I crushed it without any consideration of the possibility it could be worth it?
12:55
Probably the deal I've been most stringently against, besides the Shelby Miller craziness, was the Wil Myers/James Shields swap. And even in those posts, I wrote thousands of words explaining my thinking.
Tony
12:55
In theory, the fact that Torres was "blocked" shouldn't really factor into the pure value analysis of the Chapman trade, right?
Dave Cameron
12:56
It reduces Torres' value to the Cubs, but it shouldn't have affected his market value to other teams. The "problem" for the Cubs is that they didn't really have any other weaknesses to address.
Concerned White Sox Fan
12:56
MLB Central suggest a trade where the White Sox give up Sale and Eaton with the Nationals sending Giolito, Joe Ross, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles? Is that fair value? Seems like the Sox are giving up too much here.
Dave Cameron
12:56
You think the White Sox are giving up too much there?
The Nationals wouldn't do that.
Definitely Richie
12:57
Hey, you're married and we're not. At least you managed to fool one more babe than we have so far.
Dave Cameron
12:57
Trust me, my wife did not marry me for my charms.
Aaron
12:58
Anything to the idea that - by paying so much for Chapman - the Cubs also priced other teams out on other good relievers (or even other trade chips, period), so maybe they thought of it as strengthening themselves, while weakening opponents? I mean, obv they didn't *want* to give up so much, but is it possible that this was a factor in going through with the trade?
Dave Cameron
12:58
I don't think so. By making the trade, they also took themselves out of the buying pool for RPs, thus potentially weakening sellers leverage.
Justin
12:58
If the general consensus is that the Cubs overpaid for Chapman, why all the talk about the new market for relievers? Shouldn't other clubs just be like, "no, that's too much, we all know the Cubs overpaid."
Dave Cameron
12:59
That's pretty much what teams still looking for RPs are saying.
Dan
12:59
Is there any reason for the Yankees to trade Miller? Would he fetch less a year from now?
Dave Cameron
1:00
Of course he would. There's nowhere for him to go but down in terms of performance, and he'll have one fewer year of team control next summer.
Billy Beane
1:00
Do I QO Rich Hill if he can't pitch and/or the return is too light? 2/23 (this year plus a QO) isn't a bad deal for a guy who puts up numbers like he does, even if he's pretty fragile.
Dave Cameron
1:00
Yeah, I think a Hill QO is probably getting more likely at this point.
Aaron
1:01
A lot of ppl seem to think the package for Chapman was more valuable than Schwarber. So you could make the case that they did "pay through the nose", just for the wrong guy, and using the wrong trade chip(s).
Dave Cameron
1:01
I haven't found too many people who think this package > Schwarber, at least in terms of market value.
Will Graham
1:01
But the Dodgers might not get Kershaw back and he's essentially the only reason their WAR is that high. What do they do without Clayton, exactly?
Dave Cameron
1:01
You think Kershaw has +16 WAR in half a season?
1:03
They start Maeda, McCarthy, Kazmir, Norris, and Urias or De Leon, and maybe Ryu comes back. And that's if they don't have Kershaw, which isn't a given. The Dodgers rotation is good. People will just have to accept this at some point.
Aaron
1:04
I mean, the Cubs could've used Torres in a package to acquire a ToR starter in the coming year(s). Arrieta is a free agent soon, and the rest of the guys aren't getting any younger. They'll need pitching help soon.
Dave Cameron
1:04
Sure. That's the "do nothing at the deadline" argument.
But I think that's probably a tough one to swallow when your team is this good and your owners really want to win.
Dan
1:05
The Cubs could have gone after another starting pitcher, right? Their staff is good, but playoff dominant good?
Dave Cameron
1:05
Yes. Arrieta/Lester is as good a 1-2 as there is in baseball right now, Hendricks is way better than everyone thinks, and almost no one has a #4 in Lackey's class.
Matt
1:05
How would handle Aaron Sanchez for rest of year?
Dave Cameron
1:06
Leave him in the rotation, skip some starts.
HUNGRY
1:06
How often do you get inside info that you cannot share?
Dave Cameron
1:06
I'm not really in the rumor/breaking news game, so when I hear stuff, I don't really put it out there.
Ed in Iowa
1:07
Don't feel compelled to post this, but just FYI: having been to 21 stadiums, Pittsburgh is far and away my favorite and I am not a Pirates fan
Dave Cameron
1:08
Yeah, everyone says the stadium there is awesome. I really want to get there.
Joe
1:09
How many people need to agree to buy Fangraphs membership every year for you to say "it's lit, fam"? Because I will join Mike Scarn on doing it.
Dave Cameron
1:09
10,000
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