Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:02
Happy Wednesday, everyone. Let's talk some baseball for an hour or so.
Ed in Iowa
12:02
I have several questions/comments this week, but most importantly: Was there good news yesterday? Is it time to start planning that fancy, costume, pool party?
Dave Cameron
12:03
For those who aren't sure what Ed is referencing, I had my five year remission checkup yesterday. It was, indeed, good news. I'll never be really "cured", as there's always a small lingering chance of recurrence, but the five year mark is the point where 95% of AML patients end up living a nice healthy life until something else kills them.
12:04
So yeah, we're going to have a big party.
britishcub
12:05
Are NL pitchers stats more predictive of future performance if you look at non pitcher at bats only or do you just lose information?
Dave Cameron
12:05
I would imagine it probably doesn't make a big difference one way or another, but I haven't seen it studied.
Greg
12:05
It sounds like Kershaw is nearing a return. In your opinion, what does he need to do to get the Cy Young?
Dave Cameron
12:05
I'm an NL Cy Young voter again this year, so I can't be too definitive. But if he ends up throwing another 30 good innings before the year is out, I think he'll probably be the favorite.
Jon
12:06
Historically, how do teams like the Cubs that might not have the best contact rate but rely heavily on OBP perform in the postseason against better pitching?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Good question. I'll mark it as a thing to look at.
Zonk
12:07
I know you are not as high on Addison Russell as some others, but since the ASB he's batting an ISO of .260, with a wRC+ of 134. Just a hot streak, or is he powering up for real?
Dave Cameron
12:07
With a relatively low contact rate, adding power was always going to be the thing that needed to happen (outside of fixing the contact issues, anyway) to make Russell a legitimate star. It's too early to say that he's flipped the switch, but this is obviously a good sign for the Cubs. As if they needed more things to go right.
Alex
12:08
Pomeranz – experiencing some pains of switching to tougher competition or what? He doesn't look so great out there
Dave Cameron
12:08
Since getting to Boston, he's run an ERA- of 95 and an xFIP- of 100. Maybe your expectations were too high?
Because this is perfectly fine.
Q-Ball
12:09
Your current ERA leader in baseball among qualified pitchers by a wide margin is...Kyle Hendricks. Not a question, just very surprising, isn't it?
Dave Cameron
12:09
He's wildly underrated, but he's also benefiting from good defense.
Bernard Gilkey
12:09
Any chance we could get you and Sullivan and friends to do a Portland FG meetup? Maybe for a World Series game?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I don't know if I'll make it over to Portland in the playoffs, but I'd think the odds of a meetup are very high.
Q-Ball
12:10
What does your crystal ball tell you Yasiel Puig's future is? He's raking in AAA
Dave Cameron
12:11
I don't think I want to presume that I know anything about the rate at which Puig will mature as a human being, and it seems like that is one of the primary factors that led him to the minors in the first place.
LioneeR
12:11
Congrats on the (non) cancer news. Do you do anything to celebrate these checkups?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I had a very exciting night of changing a diaper, reading Drew the same book 20 times, and working on move-across-the-country logistics. I know how to party.
Mike
12:12
What kind of contract will Justin Turner sign this off-season?
Dave Cameron
12:13
I was just thinking about that the other day; he's going to be a fascinating case. The fact that he's an older late-bloomer with knee problems will hurt him, I think, but the bat is clearly legit at this point. Gut feeling is he gets something like the Zobrist deal.
Mike
12:13
Is there a recency bias in the chat queue?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Well this question was asked 28 minutes ago and I just saw it so I don't think so.
Jim
12:14
Corey Seager: 150 games, 8.2 WAR

Remember when the price for David Price was him, Urias and Pederson?
Dave Cameron
12:14
People love to point out the bust rate of prospects, but this is why you keep them.
Dave Aunepetitegraine
12:15
Gary Sanchez already has the 6th best WAR for catchers.. When is someone going to write about him?
Dave Cameron
12:15
August is working on something for tomorrow, I believe.
Sean P
12:16
With a pitcher like Kyle Hendricks, who has demonstrated a huge discrepancy this year between his ERA and his FIP, is there a way for us to recalibrate his WAR value? For instance, this year if Hendricks is a 3 WAR player based on FIP, can we say that he is probably worth additional wins based on his ability to generate weak contact and thus beat FIP? Or is it too difficult to calibrate based on his unique skills and the fact that he has the Cubs defense behind him?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Sure, you can definitely look at the amount of difference between his FIP-based WAR and his RA9-based WAR and try to figure out how much of that gap is Hendricks versus his defenders. FIP-based WAR isn't a comprehensive evaluation of everything a pitcher can do to prevent runs, so it shouldn't be looked at as the last word on the topic of a pitcher's value. It's a starting place, not a finishing place.
Erik
12:17
How did Stewart and La Russa get into positions of power with the Diamondbacks in the first place? Does their original hiring suggest that the Diamondbacks' ownership values their sort of thinking, and would be likely to hire similarly outside-the-box in the wrong direction thinkers as their replacements?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Well, given that the ownership group hired Kevin Towers before LaRussa, it seems possible that they overvalue personality when hiring.
Mike
12:18
Are you regretting your decision to rank Carlos Correa ahead of Corey Seager in your list of most valuable players in a trade?
Dave Cameron
12:19
No, because literally every person in baseball I talked to preferred Correa, and they're the ones who would make the decision. But it seems pretty clear that Seager is also really quite good, and perhaps the gap isn't as large as the raw tools make it look.
Rob
12:20
Congrats to you Dave! An incredible feeling, I'm sure. My baseball question is in regards to the White Sox. Everyone, understandably talks about selling Quintana and Sale, what about Eaton? Is he worth keeping or should he go to if a full rebuild happens?
Dave Cameron
12:20
I think guys like Eaton don't bring back as much value in trade as they're worth on the field.
12:21
If you're blowing it up Astros-style, okay, trade him, but if the goal is to win in the next few years, then you probably keep him.
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