Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:04
Happy Wednesday, everyone. I just flew back from SF yesterday, after a fun Pitch Talks event on Monday night. Seriously, these shows are great, and you really should make a point of going if one comes anywhere near you.
12:05
Watching Jonah Keri get made crushed by Jon Miller was a lifetime highlight.
But with a month left in the season, we've got plenty of stuff to talk about, so let's spend the next hour talking baseball.
wilson
12:06
Shelby Miller is back up today, do you think theres a shred of hope for him going forward?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Sure, there's no reason to think that a guy who was a quality pitcher for several years is now just utterly useless. It seems like his season just snowballed on him, with his mechanics getting out of whack, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miller turned out to be a useful pitcher again. Remember, Roy Halladay had one of the worst seasons in baseball history, got sent back to A-ball to redo his mechanics, and came back as a Hall of Famer starter.
Guest
12:07
Hendricks peripherals are pretty much identical to last year? Has he actually gotten better?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I haven't looked at the most updated leaderboard, but I believe as of a few weeks ago, he was allowing the lowest average exit velocity on contact of any pitcher in baseball. So, yeah, if he's figured out how to limit hard contact while also maintaining his previous control of the strike zone, that's improvement.
Jacob
12:08
Based on John Farrell's comments this morning (which Alex Speier was tweeting, for reference), it sounds like the Red Sox are leaning towards calling Moncada up to play 3B. What would you expect from him down the stretch? Would they have to add him to the 40 today for him to be playoff-eligible?
Dave Cameron
12:10
The high strikeout rate in Double-A suggests he might not be ready to hit big league pitching yet, but the athleticism could make him a very useful part-time player. And no, he doesn't have to be on the 40 man today; anyone in the organization is eligible to be added to the playoff roster as long as the team has a player on the 60 day DL, which the Red Sox do.
Amarillo Windmill
12:10
Dave! The Rangers won another one run game! This time via an Odor two run, walk off HR! How do these boys keep doing this? I love this team! #NeverEverQuit
Dave Cameron
12:11
Improbable, beat-the-odds stories are a lot of fun. Enjoy it.
Joe
12:12
How much raw power would Tebow have to have to make it worth trying to develop him given his hit tool? Seems like he'd need to have 70 power to think that a 29 year old with something like 35 hit could provide any value
Dave Cameron
12:14
The odds of Tebow actually having a major league career seem incredibly slim, but I don't get why so many people are upset about him taking a shot, or teams considering whether it's worth giving him a look in a developmental league. It's his life, and he's not hurting anyone by trying this. Teams aren't actually wasting any legitimate assets by having local area scouts watch his workout. If he goes to instructional league and looks hopeless, that will be the end of that, and no one will have been harmed.
lunch
12:15
freddie freeman is on pace for a 5+ WAR season, which is hard to notice with all the replacement level players around him. is the braves rebuild gonna take so long that he'll be post peak by the time the next good braves team happens?
Dave Cameron
12:16
The Braves certainly hope not, but I think an optimistic forecast for them is 70-75 wins next year. They're going to need a lot of stuff to go right to be contenders by 2018, even.
Is Tebow a Elite OF?
12:16
In theory, can guys not remember to aim 2-3 inches lower when swinging at Britton?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Not really. They have spent years perfecting their swing; they can't really just create a new one for one specific pitcher.
Domingo
12:18
Why is the player with the highest wOBA not always the player with the highest wRC+? How are they weighted differently?
Dave Cameron
12:18
wRC+ is park adjusted.
Sonny
12:18
From a pure entertainment standpoint what is your ideal WS matchup?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Cubs-Blue Jays, probably.
Bill
12:19
Does Quintana have any realistic shot of winning the Cy Young with a strong finish? Or will his middling record doom him in a crowded field?
Dave Cameron
12:20
I have no idea how the AL Cy Young vote is going to shake out, but I do think Quintana would have to be lapping the field to win, given that he doesn't have the "ace" reputation and name recognition of other guys.
Mike G.
12:22
Given what the Rangers have accomplished with their W/L record vs. their unimpressive run differential, am I foolish for starting to think that all of the one-run victories are a trend -- a unquantifiable skill that this team actually possesses, anchored by strong veteran leadership, coaching, and a great clubhouse environment?
Dave Cameron
12:25
You are free to believe that if you'd like. But if you believe that performing at the highest level in one run games is evidence of a skill, that belief would require you to come up with an explanation for how the Orioles acquired the same skill back in 2012 when they went 29-9 in 1 run games, and then, with mostly the same roster and same coaches, went 20-31 in 1 run games in 2013.
The best way to measure whether something is an inherent skill is to see how predictive it is of future performance, and history shows pretty clearly that winning one run games is not predictive of continuing to win one run games.
Erik
12:26
Even without injury, is it likely that Clayton Kershaw has already put up his most impressive numbers, simply because his numbers are such outliers that they almost have to regress to the mean a bit? Or was he on a trend that could have kept going if not for an injury (and one he may resume soon)?
Dave Cameron
12:27
There is an upper bound on dominance, and he was almost at it. At some point, you can only get so many hitters out.
Roth
12:27
I know you don't have a precise answer, but what salary range would that position posted for the Nationals today (Baseball Research & Development Analyst) be around?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Given the new overtime laws that are going to into effect later this year, I'd bet it will be around $50K, just enough to keep the employee exempt from the new regulations.
Mr. Pink
12:29
Trea Turner is a pretty exciting player.
Dave Cameron
12:29
He's so fast.
Luke
12:29
I was discussing this with my friend and was curious to see if you had a rough idea to the answer. Say you moved someone like Starling Marte with plus defensive skills from LF to CF, which being a premium defensive position that requires more range, could theoretically boost his WAR. Say that happened, how much of an uptick in WAR would you speculate it has?
Dave Cameron
12:30
The positional adjustments are supposed to take care of this, so assuming a player is not being deployed at a wildly suboptimal position (say, Hanley Ramirez in left field...), his value shouldn't change dramatically when changing positions.
Johnny 5
12:30
I understand what Gary Sanchez is doing now is unsustainable. Having said that, the fact he is capable of playing like this for a month changes his future projection somewhat, right?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Of course. It's the same thing as Trevor Story at the beginning of the year; this kind of power, even in short bursts, means that he's better than we thought he was before he went bananas.
The Boat
12:33
It seems like everyone is down on Brian McCann's trade value. I get he's a little pricey, but a strong defensive catcher with a solid-average bat - those don't grow on trees. Isn't he worth a bit more than salary relief in a trade?
Dave Cameron
12:34
Not really, no; aging catchers are scary. If the Yankees pick up a little bit of the remaining contract, they might get a fringe prospect, but he's a slightly negative value asset at this point.
tmz
12:34
Can you please elaborate on the Jonah Keri lifetime highlight?
Dave Cameron
12:36
Jonah recorded a live version of his podcast with Jon Miller and Bobby Evans, so you can hear the whole exchange once he puts out the episode, but the short version is that Jonah asked Bobby a question about team chemistry and how important it is, then noted to Jon that after Bobby answered it, he'd rephrase it to better suit Jon. Miller then mocked him mercilessly for making it sound like he wasn't smart enough to answer the question as posed to Evans. It was amazing.
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