Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Brock Holt!
12:36
Rick Porcello is the best SP on the Red Sox staff: true/false
Dave Cameron
12:36
False; that's David Price, by a good margin.
Reginald Denton III
12:37
Who starts game 1 in the playoffs for the Cubs? Does Hendricks have any shot whatsoever?
Dave Cameron
12:37
I'd guess it will be Lester or Arrieta, depending on the opponent.
King Joffrey
12:38
Heard recently (from reliable MLB writer) about xFIP: "Doesn’t work. It’s an experimental (x) stat that has not panned out in reality. It doesn’t predict what it was supposed to predict. Don’t use it." Thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:38
That's a silly opinion.
Blurp
12:38
Is the Kyle Hendricks Cy Young chatter just from delusional Cubs fans or does he have legit shot?
Dave Cameron
12:38
I'm an NL Cy Young voter again this year, and I'm absolutely giving him consideration.
David
12:40
As a follow-up to your answer to Jacob's Moncada question: a handful of scouting types have actually said that Moncada's high-K rate is a result of him trusting his eye so much that he takes a lot of borderline strikes for strike 3; so many of his K's are looking, and better umpires in the majors might mitigate that some. Is this a theory you could give credence to?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Nope. That sounds like a classic example of post-hoc explanation to fit data into a preconceived belief. It's the "Jesus Montero is just bored and that's why he's not hitting in Triple-A" type of report.
Steve H
12:42
Should I be worried about Jake Arrieta as the Cubs head to the post-season? His command has been pretty questionable of late.
Dave Cameron
12:42
Yeah, I'd be a bit concerned.
With the Cubs having a massive lead, I'd probably consider skipping a start or two in order to give him a little bit of a break before October.
Jose
12:42
Is there a good reason to not bring up Ozzie Albies in September if the plan is for him to be the starting 2nd baseman in 2017?
Dave Cameron
12:42
He's not on the 40 man.
I'm no scout, but...
12:43
This Tebow thing is interesting because it shows a WIDE range of scouting opinions. According to Taylor Blake Ward of Scout, two scouts had Tebow's raw power at 65 and 80... Then you've got other scouts laughing at Tebow and reportedly saying he looks like “an actor trying to portray a baseball player." What's up with these scouts, Dave?
Dave Cameron
12:43
Scouting is hard.
Jose
12:44
Jays over Red Sox? I'd take the Betts as a young star and Ortiz as the retiring slugger for the WS narrative over whatever you get with the Jays
Dave Cameron
12:45
Bautista/Encarnacion may also be playing their last games in Toronto, and the Jays atmosphere is tough to beat.
Erik
12:46
If things like strong veteran leadership or a great clubhouse environment have a real effect, how would they show up in the stats? Some slight overperformance relative to BaseRuns indistinguishable from random variation but which actually represents something real in some cases?
Dave Cameron
12:47
There's no real reason to think leadership would lead to better clutch performance. I'd think it would be more akin to something like what we see in STL, where guys come up and consistently develop into better players than expected.
DeWayne Buice rookie card
12:47
Who do you like best out of these three 22-year-olds: Addison Russel, Dansby Swanson or Alex Bregman. Why?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Bregman. Best hitter of the bunch.
Patrick
12:48
Do you pick up Matt Moore's $7M option for next year?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Of course. I think Moore is overrated, but $7 million is nothing in MLB anymore.
99
12:50
Any chance that MLB made the ball more homer-friendly as a reaction to the Royals' non-power-focused success? Maybe they got worried about the game shifting focus towards defense and situational relief pitching?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Well, the big spike in homers occurred around the All-Star break last year, so if they did it in response to the Royals winning the World Series, they had a crystal ball and knew that would happen before it did.
12:51
(I don't think MLB intentionally juiced the ball. I'm open to the idea that the ball was unintentionally changed.)
Chicago Mark
12:51
Regarding Tebow. If he makes a minor league team, would he be taking someones spot? There is some downside if someone else is cut for him to be paced on the roster. Correct?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Sure, but to actually get assigned to a team, he'd have to play well enough in instructional league to get invited to spring training, and then he'd have to do well enough in ST to show that he was worth a spot on an affiliated roster. And if he does those things, then he earned his way there. He's not taking anyone's spot by just showing up in instructional league this fall.
Phil
12:53
Not asking you specifically... but if Kershaw is able to pitch another ~25 or 30 innings (top range of hopefulness at this point) and he is similarly dominating... how tough does it make it for the other NL CY voters? He would only be at 150 IP and have missed over 2 months, but he was pretty close to as dominating as any SP in history this year, and will have accumulated as much value as any other SP.
Dave Cameron
12:54
I think voters put a high level of importance on quantity of starts/innings, so I don't think he's going to get serious consideration from a lot of the guys with ballots. That's just a hunch, though; I'll definitely consider him.
Aaron (UK)
12:54
As per the interesting guest post, do you think an MLB team would play Shohei Otani as a genuine two-way?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I don't know, but we've seen Bumgarner -- who isn't anywhere close to as good a hitter as Otani, if you believe the projections -- get used as a pinch-hitter, so I think they'd be open to DHing him. I don't think anyone would want a Jose Fernandez level ace playing the field regularly, though.
Brian
12:56
Am I wrong to think that "veteran leadership/presence" basically boils down to convincing guys not to go out drinking/chasing women until 4 am when they have a day game after a night game?
Dave Cameron
12:57
It's more than that, but that's part of it.
Ben
12:58
With the weak free agent class this summer, are slightly above average guys like Brandon Moss coming off strong years going to get unusually big contracts? Or is the weak FA class a sign teams have already reallocated resources to keeping the players they have?
Dave Cameron
12:58
Yeah, I think teams will substitute into the trade market instead of just overpaying mediocre players.
Well, overpaying more than normal, anyway.
Rob
12:59
I realize it would only be a guess at this point, but what do you think the White Sox will do this winter? Thanks!
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