Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:40
Are you skeptical of offensive statistics since Daniel Murphy is now hitting like one of the best hitters in the league after years of being average?
Matt
12:40
Yankees running a 13-man bullpen right now has to be an argument for changes to the extended rosters. Is it going to be as simple as teams naming 25 active players for a game, will they go for a more elaborate rule to cut down on the number of relievers, or will they simply opt to not bother changing things?
Dave Cameron
12:40
I think we'll see some kind of taxi squad in the next CBA, and that will carry over into September.
Jack C.
12:41
While maybe a team hasn't based their decisions off of one of your articles, I think it is safe to say your work has had at least a small effect on some front office decisions. Sure, they didn't click on one of your articles and make a rash decision, but this website has had a major influence during the transition of advanced statistics in the baseball community. With that being said (and if you agree with me), how awesome is that personally? This may not have been a long-term goal of yours, but it has to be a pretty sweet feeling to effect the game in some sort of way.
Dave Cameron
12:43
I'm proud that FG has helped propel a better understanding of baseball, but I think of it more like we've helped change the media narratives surrounding the game, and the change in media narratives have helped change what kind of people are hired for decision making positions. I don't necessarily look at what we've done and say "we've changed the game"; I look at more of the way baseball is written about and think we've had something to do with that evolving.
Zonk
12:43
Dave, please elaborate on the taxi squad concept. For example, 27 players on your roster, but only 25 active each game, something like that?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Yeah, basically. There will be rules in place so that teams don't just stash relievers and carry a 10 man bullpen all year, but I think we'll see the ability for teams to basically deactivate players who need a day off without having to put them on the DL.
NYTT
12:45
I understand that the best defensive players (Simmons, Kiermaier) will always have good defensive metrics, but would you predict a guy like Walker to be a good defensive second baseman in the future, or is this year more of a blip?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Performance can fluctuate, both on offense and defense. I wouldn't look at Walker's UZR and predict that he's now a great defensive second baseman any more than I would look at Tanner Roark's ERA and decide he's now an ace.
Snow
12:46
Any chance you think the Indians regret not giving in to Lucroy's "demands" (ripping up that option) to acquire him?
Dave Cameron
12:46
No; it would have been insane to give up that package for Lucroy as a rental.
Brian
12:47
Is there precedent for how the O's are handling Dylan Bundy? This season he has already blown past his total innings pitched for the past three years combined, and the team publicly has no plans to slow/shut him down. But, of course, he has generally pitched quite well in the rotation. Should we be terrified or thrilled?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Well, there's a lot of precedent if you go back a while to before teams carried about pitch counts and workloads in general.
And lots of pitchers broke down back then.
But the reality is we don't really know enough to know for sure how much damage the Orioles are doing to Bundy. We think it's probably not great for him, but how bad is it? Don't know.
Erik
12:48
On Effectively Wild recently they were discussing whether "smart baseball" is boring. What do you think? And if the MLB thinks so, are they likely to implement rule changes to encourage teams to play suboptkmally
Dave Cameron
12:49
I do think too many balls-not-in-play is bad for the sport. I think, at some point, a continually rising strikeout rate would be an issue MLB would have to try and fix.
Jordan
12:50
"now" an ace? This ERA is who Roark has been for 3 out of his 4 years in the majors
Dave Cameron
12:51
He threw 53 innings in 2013, most of them in relief. He's now had two excellent seasons in three years as a starter, but he's preventing runs with the weak-contact-and-runner-stranding model, and Shelby Miller can tell you all about how long you should bet on that lasting.
NYTT
12:52
Why are right fielders required to have strong arms? Wouldn't a guy like prime Michael Bourn be just as effective in right because he can get to the ball quicker? Wouldn't a more effective measurement be the amount of time the fielder needs to get the ball into the infield rather than how fast he throws it into the infield?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Right fielders have to try and keep guys from advancing from 1st to 3rd. Left fielders never have to try and throw a guy out at 1st.
The difference in footspeed in cutting off balls is less important in preventing guys taking the extra base than arm strength.
TRANE
12:53
Wouldn't teams deactivate Starting Pitching (instead of relivers) everyday to really expand rosters?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Easy enough to put rules in place that don't allow that.
Carrotjuice
12:53
Roark Truthers are gonna replace Teheran Truthers. Calling it.
Dave Cameron
12:53
I like Tanner Roark a lot. I've been one of his biggest boosters. But he's not an ace.
12:54
He's a perfectly solid mid-rotation starter.
mshirk
12:54
Would you find it helpful to think about HOFers using a bsaeline above replacement and zero the rest out? Average? Something higher? If peak matters, then why worry about 1 or 2 war years?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I don't think we want to pretend that being average has no value. A guy who is average for 10 years is more valuable than a guy who is replacement level for 10 years, and those guys have different HOF cases. I just don't really care about the value produced in non-great years from guys who are inner-circle all-time greats. The Kershaws and Trouts of the world do enough in their peak that the rest is irrelevant. For guys who don't reach that peak, the rest matters.
Alex
12:55
King Felix is at 50 fWAR and only 30, though is trending poorly, HoF?
Dave Cameron
12:56
I'm down on every starter's chances to make it to Cooperstown until the electorate changes. If we can't get Mussina and Schilling in, we can't get anyone in.
Hi Erix
12:56
No Verlander on your HOF list?
Dave Cameron
12:57
Same deal as Felix, and Sabathia, and all the rest of the very good starters from the last decade. The BBWAA just doesn't put SPs in the Hall of Fame right now unless they're top 10 all-time or something.
Philip Christy
12:58
Fangraphs Playoff Odds page has the Cubs rosW% at .599...but it has the Nats' rosW% at .612! Does that mean your projection systems think the Nationals are a better team right now?
Dave Cameron
12:58
That page includes schedule; that just means the Nationals have easier opponents the rest of the year than the Cubs do.
CamdenWarehouse
12:58
The voters might be having issues and Moose and Schilling should be in, but they aren't going to be confused regarding Doc, are they? That should be easier
Dave Cameron
12:58
Did Halladay really have a better career than Mussina? I think both are easy choices for the HOF, but I'm not sure Halladay > Mussina.
1:00
Alright, mover showing up in a bit to do inventory on the house, so I'm off for the day. We'll talk from the road next week.
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