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Dave Cameron
12:36
Nope.
Steve
12:36
Is Kershaw out of the running for you at this point or is dependent on what he does the rest of the way?
Dave Cameron
12:36
Depends on how many innings he throws the rest of the way.
Josh
12:37
Concerning the AL MVP, does the weight that is placed on every one of Betts/Altuve/Donaldson's at-bats in the midst of a playoff race mitigate the 1-1.5 WAR difference that Trout has over them? Trout has had a great season but hasn't been involved in a meaningful game since April.
Dave Cameron
12:38
Just because the Angels are out of it doesn't make the games meaningless; he's playing teams that are trying to win and need to get him out every time.
STiVo
12:38
Over/under wRC+ for Swanson in 2017: 105?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Under
Steve
12:39
Who is in on a $20 million closer? I really don't see the biggest three spenders going there.
Dave Cameron
12:39
Did you see last offseason? Reliever valuation has gone through the roof.
butter
12:40
Do you think Trout should win the MVP?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Yes
Elton
12:41
Do you listen to podcasts when driving solo?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Yeah, I listened to about 6-7 podcasts over the first two days before meeting up with Jeff in KC. The best one was the story of triage on This American Life. It was a fascinating discussion of how you distribute scarce resources in disasters, and how we prioritize life and death when we can't save everyone.
A real uplifting listen...
Brian
12:42
Why is Sullivan with you? Did he agree to accompany you on your journey? Pretty good dude is thats the case.
Dave Cameron
12:42
I paid for his plane ticket from Portland to KC so he could do the western half of the country with me.
12:43
But yes, he's a good dude, despite the fact that he hasn't written a post this week after taking off the end of last week to go to jury duty...
Dan
12:43
Did you at least stop at KC Joe's for BBQ in the gas station?!
Dave Cameron
12:43
No, we ate at Char Bar, since they had a big outdoor dog-friendly eating area.
Erik
12:44
Shouldn't ERA be huge in Cy Young voting? The Cy Young isn't meant to predict who will do well next year, it's meant to reflect who did well this year, and someone who didn't give up many ones indisputably did well this year, even if he did it in an unsustainable way.
Dave Cameron
12:44
ERA doesn't measure pitcher quality; it measures pitcher and fielder quality.
And the ERA/RA distinction is stupid.
Big Al
12:45
I asked Sullivan to tell me if Nick Franklin is worth caring about last week. Make him write that piece!
Dave Cameron
12:45
He told me about that question in the car yesterday.
Elton
12:46
I think the triage episode was on Radiolab. I listened to it too and thought it was one of their best shows.
Dave Cameron
12:46
Hmm, yes, you may be right; I listened to several Radiolab podcasts too.
But yeah, the triage episode is pretty amazing.
Ian
12:48
So FIP trumps ERA everytime? Results don't matter?
Dave Cameron
12:48
I didn't say anything close to the first sentence. I simply pointed out that you can't measure a pitcher's results with ERA.
Josh
12:49
Would you consider leadership qualities when voting for MVP?
Dave Cameron
12:50
If one could show how those leadership qualities translated into actual value for the team, sure. For instance, if a pitcher took it upon himself to teach all his teammates how to throw a dominating change-up, and they all got a lot better because of it, then I'd consider that as part of his value.
Steve
12:50
Are you including batting line in your Cy Young thinking?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Yes. I wrestled with this last year a bit, but in the end, I've decided that the award is for the best player at the pitcher position, not the person who pitched the best. We include pitcher defense in our evaluation of their job, and for the NL, hitting is also part of their job, so should also be included.
STiVo
12:51
What about the other premise in Ian's question: That we shouldn't care about whether this year's stat line for an individual should wildly regress in the following year? Maybe a better example is a guy who BABIPs like .400. Results would be amazing. Would you ding that guy in this year's MVP voting?
Dave Cameron
12:51
I wouldn't adjust a hitter's line downwards because of a high BABIP, no. We're not trying to strip luck out of the results, we're trying to strip out the effects of the player's teammates. For a hitter, those are small and mostly negligible. For a pitcher, especially a pitcher on the Cubs, that is not true.
Tim
12:53
Nobody cares if a pitcher has a great FIP and loses. I'll take whoever actually gives up less runs, regardless of other factors every time. Who will be a part of more team wins over a 3 year stretch between player A- 3.00 ERA/4.00 FIP pitcher or player B- 4.00 ERA/3.00 FIP?
Dave Cameron
12:53
You're basically saying you don't care about giving credit for positive results to the right player. It's nothing but laziness to believe that ERA is the best way to evaluate a pitcher's performance.
butter
12:54
how do you reconcile the recent offensive power surge with the preponderance of low-to-sub 2 eras in the league lately?
Dave Cameron
12:54
Well, I don't know that we really have a preponderance of sub-2 ERAs, do we?
jon
12:55
Can't it be argued basing your entire pitcher's evaluation on FIP, which is "lazy" in it's normalization of defense and contact outcomes? We can measure the effect of whiffs/strikeouts fairly accurate and so our analysis focuses on that, but batted ball distribution is not a settled science, so ignoring in game outcomes would be as wrong as taking them for granted.
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