Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:00
Happy Wednesday. It's my first 9 am chat. This is weird.
But I made to Oregon, and so this is the new normal.
12:01
Let's talk some baseball.
Bork
12:01
Do you think Porcello and (moreso) Happ will get Cy Young votes based on their high win count? Or is the BBWAA past that by now? I'm not saying that they don't deserve the Cy Young, but wondering how many of the voters will use W/L as their reasoning.
Dave Cameron
12:02
I think the days of W-L record being the primary factor in the voting are over. ERA is now the #1 thing voters look at. But I do think, since there's no clear cut #1 candidate, Porcello will get votes that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise if he didn't have such a sparkly record.
mike sixel
12:02
welcome to OR. It's great out here.....What kind of package could Dozier gather for the Twins, who if it weren't for the Reds might have the worst SP right now?
Dave Cameron
12:03
It's hard to tell. He's an excellent player, but he's so unusual that I'm not sure that teams will project this level of production to continue.
benj
12:03
Are you in Bend yet? All settled in?
Dave Cameron
12:04
I got her over the weekend. Given the number of unpacked boxes still around the house, I wouldn't say I'm settled in, but I've got enough stuff to make it through while unpacking.
ballsandgutters
12:04
do you think the skills of Fangraphs/sabermetric folks could be transferred to an industry easily? If so what industry?
Dave Cameron
12:04
I think the primary skill of the sabermetrician is logical thought processes and the desire for evidence before forming a conclusion, so theoretically, it should apply to every industry except maybe psychic readings.
Milton
12:04
Hey Dave, thanks for the chat. Who do you think ends up the Wild Card winners in the AL and NL?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Toronto/Detroit, New York/St. Louis
Erik
12:05
Should the Phillies start buying the pieces of their next good team this offseason, or should they spend another year waiting for a few more propsects to reach the majors before adding veterans?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Given the success rate of free agents lately, I don't know why we'd think the Phillies could sign a free agent this winter who would still be worth his contract by the time they're ready to win.
lunch
12:06
when you look at the last 30 days, the braves position players have put up the 2nd most WAR, right behind the red sox. that's 6.3 WAR over the last 30 days, while they've put up a total of 9.9 WAR for the year. yeesh.
is there anything to be excited about there? are they actually better? or are they just having a good month?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Well, adding Swanson certainly helped shore up a very weak position, though he's probably not going to keep this up unless he adds more power. But Inciarte is legitimately a terrific player, and getting him to play at that level helps.
Erik
12:07
Maikel Franco is turning in a basically full season with a wRC+ of 85 (as a bat-only player) and only 0.9 WAR. Have we seen enough to call him a bust? Or might he still possibly put up a 4+ WAR season or two at his peak?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Way too early to call him a bust, but the hype on him last year was never justified. He's not that different from Yasmany Tomas.
J
12:08
I'm not expecting a high OBP from Gary Sanchez in the short term because he pops up, pulls the ball a ton, is slow and strikes out more than average. Am I being realistic or am I overlooking this 1/4 of the season stretch where he's crushed the ball?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I think the perception of big power/not much else guys swings too quickly, and you're right to have some skepticism of Sanchez's ability to keep hitting at this level. Think of first-half Mark Trumbo; he looked like a monster hitting bombs, but when they tailed off, there wasn't anything to fall back on.
TKDC
12:10
If you're a young player like Dansby Swanson, with 95 At bats at this point in the season, of course you want to play everyday, but do you want to cross the rookie threshold so that you are a "second year player" in 2017, or come up just short so you maybe can win the ROY?
Dave Cameron
12:10
You don't care about that.
Erik
12:10
I've seen some articles claim that Preller didn't actually break any rules, though he did break some very strong unwritten rules and came across as very unsportsmanlike in his attempts to gain an advantage within the rules. Is that true?
Dave Cameron
12:10
If that was true, he wouldn't have accepted the suspension.
Josh
12:11
Is there any way trout gets MVP this year with a few first place votes, a ton of second place, and some vote splitting between Donaldson, Betts, Machado?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I'm more optimistic than Rosenthal that Trout could win. I obviously love Mookie Betts, but he's not your traditional MVP candidate, and I could see voters seeing Ortiz as the real cog in that offense. If they can't make the case that Mookie was the team's best hitter, they might not put him ahead of Trout on their ballot either, given how heavily offense is weighed in the voting.
I think it's going to be close. But I think Trout might win.
Coppy's long lost hair
12:14
Based on the Trout logic, Freddie Freeman should finish in the top 5 in NL MVP voting, correct?
Dave Cameron
12:14
There's a top 2 in the NL, and then a bunch of others. You can argue for him anywhere from 3-10 and be fine.
Preller
12:15
Following up on your column that Preller’s punishment was too light, what do you think the appropriate punishment should have been?
Dave Cameron
12:15
I would have sent Espinoza back to Boston and forced SD to accept a reduced prospect in exchange. I would have also forced them to pick up a larger portion of the Shields contract.
CORNDOG90
12:16
I'm 26 and have been saving a bit of money the past few years. I've maxed out my employers 401k match and am saving about 20% of my income after taxes and contributions. I've now got a bit of money in my savings account I want to start investing. Do you have any good recommendations on books for someone my age who wants to start investing for the long haul? I'm not looking to get rich quick.
Ben
12:17
Say a player his .400 over 600 PA and they're all singles. He doesn't walk once, and plays average defense. What kind of value does he have?
Dave Cameron
12:18
A .400/.400/.400 hitter with average defensive value would be a ~5 WAR player
David
12:18
Great chatting with you in line at PitchTalks in SF! What's the optimal playoff rotation for LA given their injuries?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Kershaw-Hill-Maeda-Urias. I know they want to limit his innings, but they have a shot to win the WS this year, and having Urias make one start per series won't kill him.
jjdouglas
12:19
Did you buy a house in advance of the move?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Yep. Nothing like purchasing a home you've been in for ~2 hours.
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