JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Dave Cameron

12:20

But the rental market here is bananas, so it wasn't really much of a choice.

Colin

12:21

Safe to assume the main reason the Red Sox have jumped the Cubs in FG WS odds is due to a potentially easier path in AL playoffs compared to Cubs having to go thru the Dodgers or Nats?

Dave Cameron

12:21

Yep.

Colin

12:22

Daniel Murphy was the best free agent signing this past offseason, correct?

Dave Cameron

12:22

Rich Hill and Ian Desmond in that mix too, but probably.

Mike Rizzo

12:23

What's more likely? 1) Bryce is hurt; 2) Bryce's 2015 was a fluke; 3) Bryce's 2016 is a fluke.

Dave Cameron

12:23

Bryce is hurt

Stupendous Man

12:24

Any thoughts on the phenomena Mike describes here?

"It’s just difficult for me to reconcile the fact that a pitcher’s stuff could be good enough to miss bats, but not good enough to drive positive outcomes when the ball is put into play." - Podhorzer

I have a few intuitions as to how this happens, but I'd gladly trade those for empirical evidence. Thanks!

Dave Cameron

12:24

I think location, not quality of stuff, drives quality of contact.

Dominik

12:26

do you think Betts can be a consistent around 30 hr hitter? or is he more like ellsbury who was a good overall hitter but only had one of those big power seasons and otherwise is more a 15-20 hr guy.

Dave Cameron

12:26

I doubt he's going to hit 30 every year. I'd guess 15-20 is more likely.

Kolten

12:26

Should Preller be a big league GM?

Dave Cameron

12:26

If I ran a team, I wouldn't be interested in having him in charge.

Snorlax

12:26

Does the absurdly weak punishment of Preller (my opinion that it's absurdly weak, without my team even being involved) give GMs any reason at all to be honest in the future?

Dave Cameron

12:26

Most of them are more ethical.

Tim

12:28

Did you and your wife purchase a "starter house," or one that you, the wife, and kid(s) plan to occupy for the next 20+ years?

Dave Cameron

12:28

This is my third home purchase, so we're past the starter house phase. We could definitely stay here 20 years if we decided to stay in Bend that long.

facilitating connectedness

12:29

Welcome to Oregon. Forget everything you learned about driving and just drive like either a grandma or a jackass.

Dave Cameron

12:29

Can I just drive like a jackass grandma?

Dan

12:29

Can we call that tension the Michael Pineda Effect?

Dave Cameron

12:30

Pineda used to be a weak contact guy when he got a million infield flies. Strasburg has been the general go-to example of great stuff/bad contact management.

@OutfieldGrass24

12:30

Now that you're in OR, any chance we get a PDX meetup at some point?

Dave Cameron

12:31

I'd say that's pretty likely.

gimp

12:31

how is an 800 OPS with average defense - 5 WAR?

Dave Cameron

12:31

That was supposed to be a + sign

12:32

Or maybe I used a ~

And it just looks like a -

12:33

Buying a "starter home" is usually a bad idea. Transaction costs on real estate are enormous. You're almost always better off waiting until you can afford your (semi) permanent home. Use that period of time to save for a larger down payment. IMHO of course.

Dave Cameron

12:33

It depends on market conditions; sometimes rents can get so out of control that buying makes sense. But I generally agree that you don't want to be constantly buying/selling real estate if you're not a real estate investor. The frictional costs are quite high.

NYTT

12:35

Do you think that the White Sox could trade a piece or two to stock their farm system a little bit, yet still be competitive next year by keeping Sale/Quintana? Thinking a Rodon to Braves scenario where the Sox get some of their good prospects may make sense. What say you?

Dave Cameron

12:36

They aren't good enough now; removing MLB talent won't make them better.

Erik

12:36

Will the playoffs continue to trend to be more and more inclusive? 5 teams doesn't seem be to a very stable equilibrium. Would you expect to see 6 teams per league within 10 years or so?

Dave Cameron

12:36

Yeah, I think playoff expansion is inevitable.

Ed in Iowa

12:36

Can UZR tell the difference between fielders with great range and fielders that are well positioned? Like if a team had some actual devil magic where fielder positioning was concerned would UZR overrate the ability of the fielder himself?

Dave Cameron

12:37

The presumption is that you want UZR to measure talent, not production, which I think is false. This is like asking if batting average can tell you the difference between bat speed and launch angle, as if bat speed is somehow the thing we want to measure.

12:38

There's definitely value in measuring the components of defensive performance, and Statcast will do that for us, but there's also value in just knowing how many runs a guy saved.

I am the walrus

12:38

Playoff expansion means eventually a snowed out WS. Do you think they ever move it to a nuetral site. I thnk that's a dumb idea.

Dave Cameron

12:38

Or it could mean a reduced regular season schedule.

Greg

12:39

Are there any metrics out there to quantify a manager's contribution to team defense via shifting?

Dave Cameron

12:39

Managers usually aren't the ones deciding where to position the fielders.