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Dave Cameron
Most teams have long since moved past silly and useless terms like "proven". Every player has risk; Sale's is durability and the drop in strikeouts last year, while Urias' is how well he'll scale up to a full season workload. To pretend that one has risk and the other doesn't is to ignore reality. Urias already projects as a +3 to +4 WAR pitcher for 2017, so while Sale is a little bit better in the short term, the gap between them will close between too long, and Urias will make nothing while Sale gets ~$15M per season, which gets taxed 50% if he's on the Dodgers. The cost and age differences are real factors that teams take into account.
So you think a team that just finished with 95 wins, has Jon Daniels as their GM, will be getting an entire season of Yu Darvish next year, hopefully an entire season of Choo, and surely some better bullpen (can't get any worse) while not losing anyone of note, will be a .500 team next year?
Dave Cameron
We've written enough about the Rangers here for you to know why they weren't a real 95 win team this year.
In each of his last two healthy seasons (2014-2015), Duda was worth 3 WAR and had a wRC+ of above 130. That's not worth $7M?
Dave Cameron
It's worth $7M, but he just missed most of the year with a problem that probably isn't going to get magically fixed, so it's not worth that much more than $7M.
Regarding the Baez vs Inciarte discussion: Do you think potential upside (Baez in this case) is generally overvalued?
Dave Cameron
I think people vastly overstate their ability to identify a player's actual ceilings. Kyle Hendricks and Jose Altuve are Cy Young and MVP candidates. Everyone's ceiling is basically "great player".
A. Reitz
RE: Sale vs. Urias. I understand the pay diff. but come on. "Sale is a little bit better short term"? Sale is a Top 5 SP. He's a true ace. Depreciation of K's or not this season, it seems unfair to assume he's falling off a cliff either. Urias isn't even a Top 50 SP going in to next season, and who knows what he'll be 2-3 years from now. Right now, he's a guy the Dodgers can "assume" will slot in as their 3rd or 4th best SP next season w/ the hopes of him living up to the hype.
Dave Cameron
You're wildly underrating Julio Urias.
Okay, on that note, off to do some writing. And then watch some baseball today.
We'll do it again next week.