Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:02
Happy Wednesday, everyone. Probably a happier one if you're a Cleveland fan.
12:03
Let's talk some World Series, or if your team is already out of it, we can work in some offseason stuff too.
Guest
12:03
What are your thoughts on last nights game? As a Cubs fan, even with a loss I saw a lot of optimism there, more specifically vs Miller. Obviously upset with a loss, but I was more mad in the LA shutouts.
Dave Cameron
12:04
Yeah, if you're the Cubs, I think you're fine with last night. Miller is spent, Schwarber looked good, and you're not going to keep giving bombs to Roberto Perez all series. You just look at that one, say they needed it more, and realize you're now in a great position to take the next two.
Baller Status
12:04
The Coghlan/Heyward decision got me thinking about hot streaks/slumps. This doesn't really exactly apply here, because Coughlan wasn't hitting that great. But if a guy like Heyward has looked lost recently, and if another player seemed to be really locked in, would that sway your decision on who to play? Even if their projections were similar or even slightly lower for the player who was on a hot streak?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Hot streaks have been extensively studied, and they basically have no real predictive value. Which is to say we can't identify ahead of time when a hot streak is over.
Danny Almonte
12:06
What is the one thing you most wished we could quantify about baseball that we currently don't have the means to?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Probably game by game park effects.
12:07
It would be really useful to say "because of the current weather, the way the wind is blowing, and where the shadows will be for this duration because of the position of the sun, the park is going to suppress offense by X% today." We can't do that.
Erik
12:08
Small sample size of course, but it felt significant that the only hitter to do well off of Kluber was Zobrist, who had spent several years in the AL. Similarly, it felt significant that the Indians did fairly well against Lester, who himself had spent many years in the AL. Does that have a noticeable affect?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I think you're seeing patterns where none exist. And I wouldn't say that Cleveland hit well against Lester. Ramirez's RBI single was a swinging bunt. Their second run came on an HBP from a guy who is only in the league because he's perfected HBPs. Roberto Perez crushed a bad pitch, but other than that, they didn't really do much against Lester.
Disco Dan
12:09
if miller was a free agent, would he get more then Chapman this offseason?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Yes.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:10
Andrew Miller is getting leaned on quite heavily in this postseason...is there a point in this WS that he's just not going to be available? Seems like that's got to be coming with him having appeared in all but two of CLE's postseason games, and going multiple innings in every single appearance.
Dave Cameron
12:10
I would think if he pitches today, it will be just for one batter.
But if they can avoid using him today, plus off day tomorrow, he'll be right back to full strength on Friday.
Erik
12:10
Does Maddon have sound logic behind starting Coghlan and not pinch-hitting for Ross, but we're just not seeing it? Or were those objectively, unarguably incorrect (if largely insignificant) moves?
Dave Cameron
12:11
He obviously has access to more and better data than we do, so there's no way to say that he's objectively wrong. But we also shouldn't just appeal to authority every time a manager with access to good data does something odd. Smart people aren't infallible.
mryashin
12:12
Kluber threw only 88 pitches in Gm.1. Can we assume the Indians' plan the rest of the way is: 3-man rotation and work the living heck out of the bullpen?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Yeah, probably.
James
12:12
Why is everyone so down on Bauer's chances in game two? I'm not saying it's a toss up. Clearly Arrieta should be favored. BUT, Arrieta has struggled. Bauer has a ton of talent. Yes he walks guys. But he strikes them out too. He's had some really dominant performances this year, and he's only going to be asked to go through the lineup what two times?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Trevor Bauer is a ~league average pitcher. Jake Arrieta is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Erik
12:13
Were the Cubs uniquely poorly set up to deal with Kluber? Or did they just have a bad game against a great pitcher?
Dave Cameron
12:13
I don't think anyone would have hit Kluber last night.
What are you supposed to do with a 94 mph two-seamer that breaks like that?
Kiermaier's Piercing Blue Eyes
12:14
Not a WS question. I'm in my early 20s submitting economics PhD applications and am considering submitting a few baseball analytics jobs for fun. Don't have baseball experience, do have statistical and programming experience. What's the day to do and career prospects of these sorts of jobs?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Depending on your level of baseball knowledge, odds are you'd probably end up starting as an intern, making a few thousand bucks a month and working ~80 hours a week. You'd do that for six months, and if they liked you, you'd be in line for an analyst position that will pay ~$50K per year (essentially required after the new overtime rules kick in at the end of the year) for ~80 hours of work per week. After a couple of years, if you work your tail off and do good work, you might make it to a managerial level, and get up to ~$75K. If you put in 10-20 years, you might make it to AGM, which gets you into the six figures.
12:17
But if you have any kind of real programming skills, you can probably make $100K working for a tech company right now.
So, I hope you really like baseball!
Hal
12:18
Do you think Francona pulled Kluber too early? I get wanting him available for two more starts, but he worked Miller pretty hard to do so.
Dave Cameron
12:18
I think he pulled him too late; I wouldn't have let Kluber face Zobrist.
Runs Allowed Dickey
12:19
If Carrasco and Salazar are healthy, are the Indians favoured?
Dave Cameron
12:19
No.
Mike Trout
12:19
People are saying that Clint Frazier could be as good as me, do you think there is a shot he could do as much damage as I have done, or are they just saying he is a 5 tool guy?
Dave Cameron
12:20
No one is as good as you.
Anyone comparing Clint Frazier to you should go join a Bad Comps Anonymous group with the people who thought Byron Buxton was better than you.
Bojack Horseman
12:20
Keep hearing comparisons of Hendricks to Maddux, but wouldnt he be on more of a Mark Buerhle career path than Maddux?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Yeah, that's a lazy comparison; Maddux threw hard when he was younger. Hendricks lack of velocity leaves him without the room to shift gears as the stuff erodes. He's more of a Doug Fister.
Nelson
12:22
A lot of people arguing with you recently about expected performances in an at-bat. So is your theory that someone "in a slump" is as likely to get a hit at someone "hot" if they have the same previous 3 year averages?
Dave Cameron
12:22
My "theory" is that slumps and hot streaks are predictively useless.
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