Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:43
Excellent. They'll lose some good players in FA, but they'll also get a bunch of injured guys back, and they'll get something like a full year of Urias next year. DeLeon could also be a huge impact arm for them.
Rob
12:45
Most logical landing spots for Sale and Quintana (if traded)??
Dave Cameron
12:46
Well, the people with enough sense to talk Dombrowski out of making silly trades have all left, so you can pencil Boston in for some ridiculous overpays in an attempt to win now.
End The Drought
12:47
What are some of the factors in the success or failure of someone adding that nasty change up to the repertoire? So many examples of guys who would be unhittable if hitters couldn't sit on their heater?
Dave Cameron
12:47
Learning how to throw a change-up is hard.
A lot of guys just can't get the feel for it.
Garrett Richards
12:48
What is the track record of people like me successfully rehabbing through Tommy John?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Not very good. Masahiro Tanaka did it. Ervin Santana. That's about it.
v2micca
12:48
If those same people had left Dombrowski a year earlier, it is likely that Benintindi would currently be wearing a Braves uniform and Teheran would be wearing a Boston Uniform?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Not sure Teheran is Dombrowski's kind of guy. He likes velocity.
Disco Dan
12:49
should Bos be scared of all the old brain trust leaving?
Dave Cameron
12:49
The fact that so many highly respected front office people don't want to work under Dombrowski is clearly a bad sign.
12:50
Especially letting Sawdaye leave because DD didn't think he had enough experience to be a GM yet. That's just silly.
Andy
12:51
Re: Dombrowski's overpayments, which as a Sox fan I am also scared of, one silver lining is that Moncada seems destined for either 3B or a crowded OF, and Devers seems destined for 3B -- so trading one of them for the right return not so crazy?
Dave Cameron
12:52
There's nothing wrong with trading prospects if you're getting a fair deal for them. This isn't about trading prospects or not. It's just that deals like the Kimbrel trade will wreck your franchise if you do them too many times.
Brian
12:53
A lot of people seem to bash your reliance on projections (myself included at times, when the numbers are out to get my favorite team). What if next year FanGraphs hosted a sort of prediction forum? Maybe every game FG populates the Steamer projected winner and us commenter-tough-guys can actually log our predictions, based off of whatever we want, and see as we go along how quickly we fall behind the projections?
Dave Cameron
12:54
I don't really see it as reliance on projections; I think I'm just more skeptical than most that humans have a very good way of processing information, and I think most of the things that people convince themselves are true based on watching games on TV ("Heyward is broken") are mostly BS.
12:55
In terms of the projection test, Sam Miller did that at BP last year, and surprise surprise, people sucked at beating the projections.
Adge
12:56
Ross Atkins mentioned being prepared to give 3 years to a RP. Assuming the Jays wont be in on the big 3 RP, which others could yield a multi year deal like that?
Dave Cameron
12:56
Well 3 years is basically now the standard for any decent middle reliever.
Charlie
12:57
Is the difference between the hitting of the two pitching that significant?
Dave Cameron
12:57
Arrieta is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball. Hendricks is lousy.
At hitting, I mean.
Dooduh
12:58
Well, you could either look at it as "confirmation bias" wrt what some were saying about Heyward or maybe some of what was said is kinda true - that he was not the hitter that many expected he would be and he was unlikely to maintain elite defense for more than the first few yrs of his deal. I'll have to maintain that he has a profile better fit for CF even tho his body may not hold up there. But CF is really where the Cubs will have to extract value in that contract.
Dave Cameron
12:59
Nope. Thinking that an elite defender with a 120 wRC+ -- which is what Heyward was prior to this year -- is not a great player is simply an incorrect valuation of performance. No one said Heyward was going to crater like he did this year; they just thought what he was wasn't that valuable because they didn't value his skills.
JavyTime
1:00
Does it hurt the Cubs more to have Montero in the lineup rather than Contreras, or to have Arrieta throwing to a guy that's "not his catcher?"
Dave Cameron
1:00
It's fine in this series, since Cleveland just throws RHPs in every start. Last start, when they had him in against Rich Hill... that was a problem.
RMR
1:00
Re: "all batter vs pitcher data is useless", is that referring to player vs. player matchups only or would you extend that to player performance vs. certain types of pitchers (e.g. this batter struggles again hard sliders, such as the one thrown by this pitcher)?
Dave Cameron
1:01
Player vs player. There are definitely types of pitches or types of pitchers that some batters can do better or worse against. But X is 6-10 against Y? That's useless.
Alright, off to get some work done before Game 2.
1:02
Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.
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