Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Game 7 Day, everyone.
12:02
Obviously, most of today's questions will be about the game tonight. We'll do some offseason stuff too if you want, but tonight should be fun, so let's focus mostly on that.
Jordan
12:02
What happens to Kluber's numbers on multiples of short rest?
Dave Cameron
12:04
No one really knows for sure. What we can infer from regular bullpen usage is that days of rest impact endurance the most, not necessarily short-term performance. So I think Cleveland can be comfortable getting 3-4 innings from Kluber, essentially treating him as a Miller-esque reliever. Beyond that, I wouldn't push it.
Matt
12:04
Who wins tonight?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Gut says Cleveland. Kluber/Miller/Allen can handle the whole game. They have home field. The Cubs are going to have some easy outs in their line-up, especially with Ross catching most of the game. And their pitching just isn't set up as well.
The Cubs definitely can win, but I'd lean towards Cleveland.
NashCubsFan
12:05
Long time listener, first time caller. Which aspect of tonight's game is most critical to you? Effectiveness of Hendricks, length of Kluber, or wokeness of Cubs' bats? Thanks for taking my call.
Dave Cameron
12:06
Cubs need Hendricks to give them at least 4 shutdown innings, I think. Realistically, they can't feel good if they're down by more than a run heading into the top of the 5th, because Miller is coming in at that point if they get anything going.
Bork
12:06
Hey Dave, two questions: First, who's taking over the Tuesday chats? Second, can I still call them August?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Eric is going to take August's spot in that chat rotation.
Nicholas
12:07
So as of today, FG playoff odds favor the Cubs 56-44, while FiveThirtyEight favors the Indians by an almost identical margin. Any idea what accounts for the difference?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Our game odds have it at 55-45 Cleveland.
12:08
Don't look at the odds on the standings page at this point; those use the depth charts and proportion playing time accordingly.
For one game, which is all we have left, use the game odds.
CoreyII
12:08
Where would you bat Schwarber today if you were managing the Cubs?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Probably 5th. I liked the Fowler-Bryant-Rizzo-Zobrist top of the order.
Nathan
12:09
Think there's chance Maddon uses any relief pitchers not named Aroldis Chapman today, not counting starting pitchers who come in relief?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I think he'll have to if he wants to take Hendricks out mid-inning. Odds are not good you'd bring in Lester with a man on base, so unless Hendricks exits at the end of an inning, he'll need to get one or two outs from someone. Guess would be Edwards.
Paul
12:10
Can you clarify a point you made in your article this morning on Chapman? "Now, though, at least one of those two [Lester and Lackey] is probably hanging back in reserve." Why? How does Chapman's usage yesterday limit the amount of innings Lester and Lackey would see? I almost justify using Chapman yesterday because you have Lester and Lackey available, both of whom could go 2+ innings if needed.
Dave Cameron
12:12
Do you remember Kenley Jansen running out of gas in the 9th inning in the NLDS? The Cubs have to assume that could happen to Chapman tonight. If they bring him in in the 7th, which is probably what they want to do, and Cleveland gets some baserunners against him in the 7th/8th, you can't not have someone to replace him for the 9th if he's clearly done after 30-40 pitches.
And given how Maddon clearly doesn't trust any of his other relievers, that now probably has to be Lackey.
Paul
12:13
Would you expect to see Arrieta available tonight and used in any capacity? He said in post-game he would pitch if needed.
Dave Cameron
12:13
Extra innings only, probably .
Lure of the Animal
12:13
Who has the advantage if the game goes extra innings?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Probably Chicago, because at that point, Miller/Allen are probably out of the game.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:14
Indians pitching usage: Kluber for 6, Miller for 2, and Allen for the 9th, or the field?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Kluber for 4, Miller for 3, Allen for 2.
Kiermaier's Piercing Blue Eyes
12:14
If Cleveland wins, is there any scenario in which Kluber doesn't get MVP?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Maybe if he struggles tonight, Miller slams the door and pitches 3-4 innings.
Otis Redding
12:15
If you're Joe Maddon, are you pitching Lester 100% tonight?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Yep.
Daniel
12:15
Your best recollection: What is the most commented-upon piece of Fangraphs history?
Dave Cameron
12:16
The one where I announced I had leukemia got like 600 comments, I think.
CoreyII
12:16
If Lester is definitely pitching today, should the Cubs consider starting him to force the Indians to give up their platoon advantages early on if the Cubs switch to a RHP in Hendricks after Lester goes through the order once?
Dave Cameron
12:17
It's definitely worth considering.
Nick
12:17
If Kluber is at ~80 pitches, has allowed no runs, and is in control through 5, do you still go straight to Miller/Allen? What about through 6?
Dave Cameron
12:17
No question.
Guest
12:19
Hendricks/Lester/Lackey/Chapman tonight and try to negate any platoon advantages by going L/R/L/R?
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