Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:31
Having Andrew Miller watch Corey Kluber give up runs in the 5th inning would be brutal.
weezy
12:32
why not start Miller and work backward in effectiveness of pitchers?
Dave Cameron
12:32
If you're throwing Kluber tonight anyway, might as well let him start in his usual routine.
Anthony
12:33
You've been talking about Kluber in terms of innings, but it seems like Francona's been approaching things more in terms of times through order. If Kluber is cruising it's hard to imagine Francona taking him out before getting through the order twice, even if that means going into the 5th or 6th.
Dave Cameron
12:34
You don't risk a tiring double-short-rest starter giving up a bunch of runs in a hurry when you have Miller and Allen down there.
12:35
Miller can give you 3, Allen can give you 2. So you only need 4 from Kluber. No point giving a tiring Kluber one of the innings that Miller/Allen would otherwise pitch. That's a downgrade.
Jack C.
12:36
Good point. And I understand where you are coming from. But how can you expect a 5th inning of Kluber to be worse than the 1st inning Miller pitches? Isn't it pretty similar? A true coin flip? Miller COULD come out and give up a HR to Baez while Kluber COULD strike Baez out instead. I just don't see a 70-80 pitch Kluber being massively ineffective in the 5th inning against the bottom of the order. But what do I know? I love the fact that we are having this conversation in the first place. Thank you to all of the progressive thinkers + Maddon and Francona.
Dave Cameron
12:36
Batters put up a .275 wOBA against Kluber this year. They put up a .210 wOBA against Miller. Even taking the rest/fatigue factor out, Miller is just way better.
I am the walrus
12:37
Are you surprised Schwarber's hasn't been pinch run for at all this series? 2-2 game in the 6th and him on 2nd, 1 out, you pinch running?
Dave Cameron
12:37
No. The value of getting a slightly faster guy on the bases is small in a situation where it's not a close game.
Mike D
12:37
If Kluber has been perfect through 4 with 12 strikeouts, you still take him out?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Yes.
Miller > Kluber. I want Miller on the mound as quickly as possible while still giving me a shot to have him and Allen finish the game.
Brandon
12:38
What do you do if Kluber is ineffective from the very beginning?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Then you're probably screwed.
Ricky
12:38
Would using Kluber an extra inning reduce the risk that Miller get hit on in his 3rd inning?
Dave Cameron
12:39
You have Allen warming up for Miller's third inning. If Miller is running out of gas, Allen comes in.
If Allen runs out of gas at the end, you have Shaw.
Dock Ellis
12:40
If Miller pitches 60+ pitches that means he probably went through the order twice. Won't that favor the Cubs since they'll have a real good look at him plus he's only a two pitch pitcher?
Dave Cameron
12:40
He probably only goes 60+ if he's pitching well. Would guess his practical limit is something like 12 batters.
CamdenWarehouse
12:41
"Miller can give you 3, Allen can give you 2. So you only need 4 from Kluber." Isn't it risky to build a strategy around getting 5 scoreless innings from two relievers?
Dave Cameron
12:41
It's riskier to build a strategy around a double-short-rest starter keeping a great offense off the board the second time through the order.
Greg Bird
12:41
What about pinch-running for Schwarber due to the injury risk in a game that's not close? That's not negligible.
Dave Cameron
12:41
It's hard to get injured jogging from base to base.
12:42
It's not like Schwarber is sprinting all out.
John
12:42
Switching gear to Cubs... what if Hendricks is in some trouble in the 2-3rd? Go to Lester and try to stretch him, or go with Lackey and try to get 3 out of him?
Dave Cameron
12:42
You don't want to bring in Lester with men on. The big question for Maddon tonight is which reliever he trusts to bail Hendricks out if need be.
12:43
Strop and Rondon are obviously out. Could be Montgomery. Could be Edwards.
HugoZ
12:43
If you're an mlb manager, there's no way you could pull Kluber after four innings of total dominance because of the blowback that would come if your reliever craps out.
Dave Cameron
12:43
Players understand Game 7 is a different beast.
And no one is going to be like "you put in Andrew Miller, you fool!"
Ed
12:43
Is game seven fun just because the pitching alternatives are so different from any other game you would ever see?
Dave Cameron
12:43
Game 7 is fun because every at-bat matters.
12:44
There's no such thing as low leverage anymore.
Garold
12:45
Francona has typically bringing in Miller after someone reaches base. For example, if Kluber gets to the 5th, pitch him until someone reaches. If he's really effective to that point, I would put money on Francona repeating that strategy.
Dave Cameron
12:45
Depends on the score. Up 4-0 or something, you can afford to let him put a guy on. In a one run game, or a tie game? No.
Eric
12:45
With all of this talk of Kluber-Miller-Allen, and Hendricks-Lester-Chapman, how many runs is it going to take to win this game?
Dave Cameron
12:46
I'd guess the final is 4-2 or something like that.
Robin
12:46
If Ross comes in when Lester does, do you think he comes out too once there is a pitching change?
Dave Cameron
12:46
No.
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