Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:03
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
The off-season is upon us, so we should have plenty to talk about. Also, I'll be revealing my NL Cy Young ballot tonight when the award is announced, so I can't really answer questions about that this week.
Bret
12:03
You've been quite down on the Jays signing of Kendrys Morales, and I do get the logic. Dan Szymborski, somewhat in contrast, found that his ZIPs projection defended the move, figuring that Morales would be worth something like 2/1.5/1 WAR in the three seasons in Toronto. That shouldn't change your take, but do you think the Jays are looking at similar projections that make it defensible on their end?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Dan uses the same positional adjustment for 1B and DH, so he's going to have higher projected values for every DH than we are. But even with that boost, I don't buy Morales as a +2 WAR player at age-34.
12:05
You shouldn't ignore that ZIPS thinks the deal is okay, and you shouldn't ignore that Steamer thnks it's atrocious. But when the most optimistic forecast thinks its isn't awful, that's not a great signing.
Hans
12:05
Odds that the Braves trade for an ace this winter and the name of said ace?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Slim to none. I think they're just kicking tires to see if they can get a deal.
Hannah Hochevar
12:06
Love the FA do's and don't's. Makes me want Turner even as an O's fan. Would signing him and moving Manny back to ss be a thing?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Well, I wouldn't have thought Machado back to SS was likely, but he played pretty well there last year when Hardy was hurt. So maybe? Feels like O's more likely to spend on other things, though.
Uncle Jimbo
12:07
Do you think the Cubs knew Rondon was compromised when they paid the premium for Chapman, or was it a coincidence that Rondon when on the DL five outings after the trade?
Dave Cameron
12:07
They probably knew.
Asking for a Friend
12:07
Do you think King Felix will return to form or are we seeing the early decline of a former ace?
Dave Cameron
12:08
The lack of fastball velocity finally caught up to him. I think this is mostly what he is now.
Matt
12:08
How will the Cubs outfield shake up in 2017?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I'd guess Soler gets traded and a veteran CF is acquired, so it will be Schwarber in LF, veteran in CF, Heyward in RF, Almora as 4th OF
12:09
And Zobrist bounces between 2B/OF again.
Guest
12:10
Thoughts on the JD Martinez to the Giants rumors? What would it take for them to get that deal done?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Martinez doesn't really strike me as an SF kind of player.
BK
12:11
Any chance the Blue Jays bring back Bautista to play first? Smoak is essentially a sunk cost at this point and Morales isn't going to be seeing much of the field.
Dave Cameron
12:11
Could see it happening if Bautista's market tanks.
If no one wants Bautista to play the OF, I'm not sure where he fits. Maybe Houston?
Matt
12:12
Would Jorge Soler, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and a Low A pitcher be enough for Chris Archer?
Dave Cameron
12:12
No.
Kal Daniels
12:12
Which player of the last 30 years or so would you love to see get a career re-do?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Eric Davis.
JT
12:13
How serious do you think the rumors about the Tigers selling are? It seems odd to sell now, they almost made the playoffs last year, have the same team coming back and are locked into all of these contracts forever, why not go for it one last time? Do Kinsler, JD or Verlander get you anything in a trade to make it worthwhile to start tearing down?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Well, I think there's some merit in taking advantage of a seller's market to tear it down and get something now rather than try to move even older players a year from now when there is more available. But if they're going to do it, they should go the whole way. Cabrera, Verlander, both Martinezes, Kinsler... blow it up. Or keep everyone and go again next year. Don't go in between.
Erik
12:14
The Phillies have both money and time. Are they the team best placed to take a shot at a Carlos Gomez rebound? If it works out, they get a good deadline trade piece (or a contributor to a wild card push in 2018). If it fails, all they lose is money, which they have more than enough of. Good fit?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Yeah, it's not a bad idea. If I were them, though, I'd probably be spending on relievers instead. Those are the guys who are super easy to move at the deadline if they're pitching well.
Netflix and Rich Hill
12:16
Hi Dave, thanks for chatting with us all. Are you guys working to quantify framing runs into your WAR? Do you think first baseman scoops will ever get an advanced value placed on them?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Yeah, and we'll likely have an announcement on framing-related stuff in the not too distant future. Scoops are already included in UZR and DRS.
soaktherich
12:17
Are there any studies that show that NL pitchers have higher injury rates due to hitting and base running? If not, get rid of the stupid DH. (And I'm a Red Sox fan, not a NL fan.)
Dave Cameron
12:17
Yeah, I'm really annoyed we got to watch David Ortiz play for the last 10 years. That was terrible.
CT
12:17
Would Moncada, ERod, Devers plus low level prospects be close for Sale?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Depends on what low level prospects mean, but that probably gets the conversation going, at the minimum.
But yeah, that's the kind of package it would take, probably.
Ed in Iowa
12:19
Eno posted an article awhile back about ‘what hitters see’. Being a human physiologist with a sabbatical approaching, I was intrigued. I have since dipped my toes into the extensive literature on the subject and decided that I would use most of my upcoming sabbatical to develop research expertise in visual-spatial learning. I plan to develop projects looking at: how we develop the ability to detect velocity, how or if we can develop the ability to detect spin, to what extent are the red stitches on the ball important, etc. This is just FYI, Fangraphs has influences you might not always be immediately obvious to you.
Dave Cameron
12:19
Well that sounds pretty neat. You might want to reach out to the guys at deCervo and see what they've already done on this field.
soaktherich
12:20
Justin Verlander for Jackie Bradley Jr.: Good starting point? Or does Detroit balk at getting only one guy back for their cornerstone?
Dave Cameron
12:20
Good one.
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