Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Wednesday.
12:02
And happy last day not feeling full for a while.
12:03
Let's talk some baseball, or some Thanksgiving, for the next little while. I can't guarantee we'll make it an hour today, as I have to start cooking fairly soon, but we'll go as long as we can.
CarrotJuice
12:03
Give me your hottest take on Castro signing!
Dave Cameron
12:04
If the team that employs Mike Fast isn't interested in bringing you back, maybe your framing value isn't as likely to continue as the Twins are hoping.
Sam
12:05
Assume: 1) Braves don't make any silly moves, 2) several of their top prospects develop as predicted. Playoffs in 2018?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Let's say they're about a ~75 win team now. If we give them real improvements from Swanson and Albies along with a couple of the arms, okay, now they're at ~80? Because it's not like those improved arms are replacing zeros; Colon and Dickey project for ~+3 WAR in 2017, so swapping in young kids for those two isn't going to be some massive upgrade.
Now, if they take the Colon/Dickey money and spend big on a premium FA next year, okay, that could get them to the mid-80s.
But they're not that close.
Bork
12:07
Is the threat of a lockout just the owners saber rattling or do you think that there's an actual threat of of a lockout?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Feels like the kind of thing one side leaks to try and get the other side to budge. The kinds of things they are reportedly talking about -- international draft, qualifying offer, etc... -- just don't seem like big enough issues to actually instigate a lockout.
ohioastrosfan
12:08
I believe that the Astros moves set them up very well to have maximum leverage headed into winter meetings. No more moves HAVE to be made. How intentional do you think this was?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I don't think that was really much of a consideration. I think they had money to spend, targeted a few guys who fit what they were looking for, and got them dene early so that they didn't get left holding a big bag of money at the end of the winter.
Turkey Tom
12:09
Dave, please give a 20-80 grade to the following holiday pies: Pumpkin, Apple, Cherry, Choc Cream, Pecan. Is Pumpkin overrated, and in fact does it have any positive trade value? Do you have any sleeper pies we need to be aware of?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Cherry is a 30, Chocolate Cream is a 35, Pumpkin is a 40, Apple is a 60, and Pecan is a 65. But Sweet Potato is a 70, and that you left it off the list is criminal.
Ronnie
12:11
How much has the information gap narrowed from the A's "Moneyball" years until today? With most teams presumably working with pretty similar data at this point, is the application of that information where front offices can best gain an edge?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Yeah, we're now at a point where basically every team gets the basic concepts that were "cutting edge" 15 years ago. The real differentiators at this point are not so much in the front offices, but in how well the information is traveling through the organization.
There are definitely still clubs out there where smart people are doing good work and it's not getting used.
Zonk
12:12
Important question: Roasted, Smoked, Deep Fried, or other preparation for your Turkey? Did a Fried last year for the first time, turned out really well, but not easy...
Dave Cameron
12:13
I'm going with roasting a broken down bird this year. My family is all flying in tomorrow, so I needed the flexibility to have things cook quicker than usual, and so having the turkey already in pieces is going to save me a bunch of time.
12:14
Plus, then I can cook the dark meat longer than the white meat.
Zonk
12:14
What major changes are you expecting with the new CBA? What would the impact be of having a 26th man....major, or minor?
Dave Cameron
12:15
I think we're going to get more tweaks than overhauls. The 26th man discussion is interesting, and makes sense as a way to compensate for service time for cutting down September expansion. I wonder if the league will push for a limit on pitchers, though. Could see the rule being that teams get 26 active players, but no more than 13 can be pitchers.
Brian
12:16
Is Brian Dozier worth a top 10 prospect?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Probably not. Say he's a +3.5 WAR player, so he's worth something like $30 million a year for the next two years. He's going to make $15M instead of $60M, so there's a lot of value there, but top 10 prospects are worth more than $45M.
Andrew
12:17
Dave, you're the man.
Dave Cameron
12:17
Well, thanks.
Apparently someone at daycare logged my kid onto the chat.
12:18
(My kid is named Drew, is the joke that I just realized no one will get)
Scott
12:18
Thoughts on Cecil signing?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Perfectly reasonable. He's good, and that's what relievers get now.
Conrad
12:19
Why aren't the White Sox blowing it up? They could seemingly rebuild the whole farm system by even dealing just Sale. Is there really any reason for them to be standing pat this offseason?
Dave Cameron
12:19
They're taking offers on him. It's early.
Q-Ball
12:19
The Nats seem very "stars and scrubs". Harper, Turner, Rendon, Murphy are a great core, Espinoza is OK, everyone else is really not good. Is that a fair assessment? What should the Nats do to just not suck at 1B/OF/C?
Dave Cameron
12:19
I guess we're only talking about their position players, because you just ignored Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, Ross, Gonzalez...
12:20
They could use another good hitter or two.
But they're a very good team.
Zonk
12:20
There is no question Jason Castro makes the Twins better. But is it too soon for them to sign a veteran catcher like that? Or does he figure to be important to development of young pitching?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Yeah, they can probably argue he'll help guys like Berrios. Plus, they had to spend their money on something. Better something small than more Ricky Nolasco deals.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:21
Mayonnaise: Tasty add-on, or satanic hell-spew that should be banished from existence?
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