Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:03
Happy Wednesday, everyone. Hopefully not the last day with actual baseball news for a while.
The CBA expires at the end of the day, so this should be an eventful 12 hours.
12:04
We can chat about that, or about the off-season, or how fast things cook at altitude -- which I may not have correctly accounted for in making Thanksgiving last week.
Brad
12:05
Hey Dave, I know you aren't the prospects guy here, but what'd you think of the Atlanta-Seattle deal for minor leaguers? Is there any hope on Jackson turning it around?
Dave Cameron
12:05
He's, what, 20? There's always hope with anyone that young. But can anyone think of a successful big leaguer who hit this poorly in A-ball? Anyone?
12:06
Toss in the reports that his body has gone the wrong way and makeup questions, and I don't know that I'd be too optimistic.
Ryan C
12:06
What kind of package should the Brewers be looking for regarding Junior Guerra? 5 years of control, good results last year, but short track record and older.
Dave Cameron
12:07
The years of control aren't as important here, since he's an older guy with fringe stuff, so he probably is out of baseball before he hits free agency.
So, really, it's more about the fact that he's a cheap innings eater. You could market him as an alternative to Ivan Nova or something, and probably get a couple interesting low-level guys in return. But he's not bringing back elite talent.
Baron
12:08
Is Yasiel Puig done?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I think the Puig of a few years ago is probably not coming back, but he's still got enough ability to be a solid regular. The question is if teams are willing to put up with all the other stuff to get a guy who is just average-ish.
Roadhog
12:09
Is it okay for me to be bearish on Joyce? His defense is awful, 2016 came against poor competition, and he hit under .200 in 2015 in the same division. Seems like he's going to be a Coghlan-level bust for the A's.
Dave Cameron
12:10
I don't think his performance in 2015 being in the AL West means anything, but I do think his 2016 line was highly inflated by pinch-hit walks, which aren't all that meaningful in terms of value. I wouldn't want to count on him for more than a few hundred PAs, and yeah, I don't think I'd have given him two years.
Oren
12:11
Dexter Fowler's fit with the Jays is pretty clear, I think, from the team's perspective. Do you think having to play a corner outfield spot will make it harder to sell Fowler on joining the Jays, though?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Yeah, i don't know why he'd agree to that, when I'm sure he'll have CF offers on the table. TOR would have to blow everyone else out of the water on money, and that's not a great idea, usually.
The Average Sports Fan
12:11
Is Conforto at 1b a realistic solution for the Mets? Is he better than Duda?
Dave Cameron
12:12
He might be better than Duda, but I don't think Duda has much trade value, so if you go that route, you're just dumping Duda for not much in return.
Cards Fan
12:12
Do the Turner to St Louis rumors really make much sense?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Nope. I don't think there's anything there.
Erik
12:12
Cubs signing Jon Jay seems like a weird move given how strong their outfield looks even without Fowler. Does this indicate they don't trust Heyward in center? And they don't love Almora either? Or is $8 million just the going rate for a 5th outfielder these days?
Dave Cameron
12:12
They weren't going to play Heyward in CF.
12:13
Jay/Almora share CF, Heyward stays in right, Schwarber and Soler share left unless Soler is traded, in which case Zobrist becomes the LF platoon guy, with Baez at 2B.
The Average Sports Fan
12:13
I agree with the Reds shopping Hamilton. What is a realistic return?
Dave Cameron
12:13
I think you should expect a pretty decent return; the speed and defense are top-of-the-scale. Three years of a low price +2 to +3 WAR player is a nice thing to sell.
Oneear
12:14
What went on that the Brewers didn't trade Carter before signing Thames? Seems like they could have picked up a prospect somewhere.
Dave Cameron
12:14
You don't think they've been shopping him for months? No one else wanted to pay Carter his arbitration salary either. He's just not that good.
Matt D
12:15
Hi Dave. Any Guesses where Bruce ends up, and what kind of very middling (and non-Dilson-Herrera-esque) return the Mets can realistically expect???
Dave Cameron
12:16
He's a perfect fit for Baltimore. At $13 million, he's got no real value, though, so you're not getting anything of real value back. It's a salary dump.
Q-Ball
12:16
Odds of a failure to reach agreement, in your opinion?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I'd guess 5%, not based on any kind of inside knowledge. It just seems like the things they're working through aren't that big a deal, in the grand scheme of things.
CoolWinnebago
12:17
Hi Dave, I realize the Braves OF is also somewhat crowded, and teams are somewhat hesitant to trade within the division. What about a mets/braves swap centered around Inciarte and Conforto? Seems like a good buy-low for the braves and addresses the mets need. I dont think Markakis needs to play every day.
Dave Cameron
12:17
The Braves think Markakis is better than we do. I don't think they're trading for a corner OF at this point.
Charles the Cat
12:18
Do you see the Cubs signing a big money closer or trading for one?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Probably a trade. I could see them going for a guy like A.J. Ramos or someone instead of a big name.
EvanC
12:19
With HOF voting going on, I'm curious, is August no longer a member of the BBWAA as a result of entering a front office?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Correct.
Below Average American
12:19
What's the ceiling for Mitch Hanigar?
Dave Cameron
12:22
The ceiling? Seems pretty high. If he can play CF and the power spike is legitimate, George Springer doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility. That's obviously unlikely, but as a best case scenario, the tools seem to be there.
Ed in Iowa
12:22
Good morning, I hope you are feeling better, you sounded a bit under the weather in this week's Carson chat..... Did you see the ridiculous Cubs-Rays trade that Jim Bowden proposed on ESPN? It was Soler, Happ, Almora, and Edwards for Archer, Kiermeyer, and Colome. I mean I’m a die-hard Cubs fan and even I would be embarrassed to propose that. It's not clear that they could even get Archer for that, true? Can ESPN not afford an editorial staff?
Dave Cameron
12:24
I saw people making fun of it on Twitter. Yeah, it's one of those offers that makes you think Bowden still doesn't really get how to value assets. But the reality is he's also paid to generate traffic and subscriptions, so he's probably more interested in getting people talking than in breaking things down analytically.
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