Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Andrew
12:24
Conforto to Reds for Hamilton? Who needs to throw something in to make it happen?
Dave Cameron
12:25
Conforto is worth more than Hamilton. Two extra years of control, plus teams pay more for bats than gloves. But could see a deal working there if Reds put Raisel Iglesias on the table too, or something like that.
Erik
12:25
What would you put the current odds of a lockout at? What about the odds of a stoppage severe enough to delay the start of the season?
Dave Cameron
12:25
These guys would have to be lunatics to actually lose baseball games over what they're negotiating over.
If we have a work stoppage, I would imagine it's just during the winter, and slows down the off-season, because players aren't getting checks right now anyway.
Brian
12:26
Don't we focus too much on free agency $/WAR to measure value as compared to overall? Free agent prices don't exist in a vacuum - the salaries of league min and arb players factor into team budget planning. So we can say that teams are paying ~$8M-$9M per win in free agency, but that isn't really "the value of a win" - that's the value of a win in one baseball sub-market, given the surplus value in other sub-markets. Looking at fWAR and total team payroll I come up with ~$4.6M per win overall. Isn't this the actual "value of a win" in baseball?
Dave Cameron
12:27
You're conflating value and price. $8M or so is the price of a win in free agency.
12:28
That's how much it costs to buy one. Of course, in total, each win is worth less than $8 million, because of pre-arb and arb players who are underpaid, so their money is going to FAs. But to acquire those guys as alternatives, you have to give up talent, and teams price their trade assets to be roughly equal to the prices you'd have to pay (in terms of value) as if you signed an FA.
Andrew
12:28
What could Mets get back for Bruce from Jays? Is Bruce for J.D. Martinez realistic?
Dave Cameron
12:28
J.D. Martinez is good. Jay Bruce is bad.
Erik
12:29
How top-heavy is prospect value? In other words, is Cody Bellinger (60 FV according to Eric) worth more or less than Alex Verdugo and Jose DeLeon combined (both 55s)? More or less than Walker Buehler and Willie Calhoun combined (both 50s)?
Dave Cameron
12:30
Bellinger is definitely worth less than Verdugo/DeLeon put together. Buehler/Calhoun is probably closer.
Bob
12:30
what would the Cubs have to give up to get Archer and Kevin Kiermaier? Everyone?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Schwarber, Baez, and stuff.
Zonk
12:31
It seems like the Tigers want to get younger, cheaper, AND better, despite the lack of farm talent. This is impossible, right? Can I eat more while also losing weight?
Dave Cameron
12:31
You can if you eat a lot of kale.
I don't know that the Tigers are trying to get better as much as they're trying to get not substantially worse.
Sirras
12:32
Sunday's links included a link to Bill James's discussion of the AL Cy Young. He feels that those voting for Verlander over Porcello solely because of his higher WAR are misapplying defensive statistics. Did you read the piece and do you have any thoughts to add?
Dave Cameron
12:34
The issue that people are talking about with B-R's WAR is the exact reason why we chose a FIP-based WAR. I wrote about it a few years back (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-our-pitcher-war-uses-fip/), and I think it's good that people are starting to realize the downside of doing things the way B-R does them. There are downsides to both approaches, of course, but the downsides of the FIP approach have been discussed a ton, while the downsides of doing it B-R's way have been overlooked, I think.
Ursa Minor
12:34
Over/under 20 games at catcher for Schwarber in 2017?
Dave Cameron
12:34
I'll go under.
Ted
12:35
How many Fangraphs writers will be at the Winter Meetings? What is that week like? How much of your reporting gets done in the bar?
Dave Cameron
12:35
I think there will be seven of us there. The week is a mixture of meeting with people we only see once a year, writing about news and rumors, and then just hanging out and being social. It's a weird event, honestly.
Mike
12:36
A league average hitter is generally worth what in WAR? Obviously there are positional caveats. Or is league average the replacement level?
Dave Cameron
12:36
Average is roughly +2 WAR, and that's true across positions.
Ted
12:36
Are teams waiting out the CBA now before signing any QO-tagged FA? Indications are the penalty will be going away, correct?
Dave Cameron
12:37
This off-season is functioning under the terms of the current CBA. The new CBA won't change the QO system for guys currently under QO; it will start next year.
Curtis
12:37
Are DiPoto's recent moves his way of ridding himself of the old regime's high profile prospects in order to put his stamp on the Mariners? or is it just a couple of guys that don't fit his plan or brought in better/more useful pieces?
Dave Cameron
12:37
I doubt it had anything to do with stamps. He is in win-now mode, and got some close to the majors pitching depth for a guy who is as far from the majors as you can get.
Andrew
12:39
Is it worth going to the Winter Meetings just to hang out in the lobby and/or hotel bar? I'm not a job-seeking or media member or anything - just an interested fan from the local area.
Dave Cameron
12:39
If you go at night, yeah, then you can probably just do the social stuff. The day is kind of boring.
Andrew
12:40
Is it possible that Cespedes' defense was underrated last year (and thus his 2016 WAR and 2017 projected WAR was/is reduced) by playing through a leg injury most of the year?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Sure, if you assume he'll definitely be healthy going forward. But that's part of the risk of the deal.
Mariner's fan
12:41
Thoughts on Dipoto's last month of moves has he made the Mariners better or just rearranged the deck chairs?
Dave Cameron
12:41
They're definitely better. If Haniger turns into a +2 to +3 WAR regular, then they'll have a shot to contend.
TampaRay
12:42
Dave, I became a Member a couple of weeks ago but still get the membership ad every 20 clicks or so. Whom should I contact?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Are you logged in? If you're logged in, you definitely shouldn't be getting the message. Use the "Contact Us" form on the site to let us know if this persists.
Zach
12:43
Is there any value to a team like the Yankees signing two of the top relievers this winter (i.e., both Chapman or Jansen together) given the lack of other places to spend money?
Dave Cameron
12:43
I don't think so; I think the reliever market has inflated enough that the prices for two of those guys are going to be prohibitive.
Petey
12:44
Way to early speculation: Where does Ohtani end up?
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