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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Matt
12:47
Is there a way Otani could skirt the system? Like apply for US residency, and enter the game as an undrafted FA?
Dave Cameron
12:47
No. Not unless MLB makes a loophole for him.
Julio Pepper
12:47
Wait isn't early career BJ Upton a fantastic outcome?
Dave Cameron
12:47
It's a very good player, but given Moncada's hype, might still feel a little disappointing.
TKDC
12:48
Is the return for Shelby Miller better than the return for Sale if you use hindsight to judge Incierte and Swanson (and Blair)?
Dave Cameron
12:48
It's probably not better, but it's close. Swanson has gained value since the trade, so it's not really fair to compare what he is now to what Moncada is now.
Jane
12:49
Without an Otani loophole, does he still come over?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Nope.
12:50
No reason to take ~$9M and be subject to pre-arb and arb salaries for six years versus waiting two years and getting $300M as a free agent.
Colt Holt
12:50
Is there anything that would prevent a team from paying Otani an $8 Million bonus (cap plus 75%, minus spare change for 19 more guys at around $5k per to fill rosters), with a promise to pay him a first year contract of $15 Million. As a future contract, no longer subject to limits. (ie. extend the controllable player after signing?)
Dave Cameron
12:50
The CBA prohibits teams from circumventing the rules by making promises of future compensation.
Now, that doesn't mean teams might not try, but MLB says they won't allow that stuff to happen.
So you'd have to hide it.
Nick
12:51
Do you know what Dan does differently with his zWAR calculations? Anything substantial?
Dave Cameron
12:52
He uses a less severe positional adjustment for DHs, so they are more valuable in his system.
Bernie
12:53
With a hard international amateur cap and a soft draft cap, do you think a team like the Dodgers might blow up their domestic pool?
Dave Cameron
12:53
No; it's too difficult to get talent to fall to your picks.
Ken M
12:53
whoah whoah whaoh. 3/145 for sale?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Greinke got $35M per year on a six year deal. Greinke is worse than Sale. As you go shorter in length, AAV goes up. It's not crazy.
12:54
Alright, I have to run a few minutes early this week.
I'm sure I'll be writing again soon, as I don't think we're done for the day in transactions.
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