Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
Today's chat might be a little interesting, as I'm also in charge of keeping my son alive until my wife gets back from a work thing she had to do this morning.
12:02
So we'll see how this goes...
Ronnie
12:02
Musgrave and Hernandez for Duffy? Who says no?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Well, considering it would be six years of Musgrove for one year of Duffy, and it's not entirely clear that Duffy is even significantly better for 2017, that would be a disaster for the Astros.
Astrid
12:03
VV's future is as a starter or reliever?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Reliever.
Ed in Iowa
12:03
Something I think would be strangely kind of awesome: if Otani decided he wanted to come to MLB next year despite the new CBA and he just signed for whoever he felt like. Every team would be able to offer the same tiny signing bonus and so the winner would have to woo him on their story of why he should sign with them. I mean it’s a crime against competitive balance that one team acquire a super star at (almost) no cost, but somehow this still seems fun to me. Thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:03
I'm going to write about Otani soon, but the way the system is setup now, either Otani isn't coming over, or we're going to have to deal with years of rumors that the team that signed him gamed the system.
Zonk
12:04
Are the Nationals going to regret giving away Espinosa for basically a bag of Angel's nothing? If he is a "poor man's Javy Baez" as Sullivan suggested, isn't that a valuable bench player for a contending team?
Dave Cameron
12:04
He's definitely a nice bench guy, but he doesn't see himself as a bench guy, and it's probably not worth having a malcontent around constantly whining about playing time.
Coolie
12:04
The Yankees believe that Gary Sanchez is a franchise cornerstone. Do you agree with that sentiment?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Yes.
Chin Music
12:04
Though they spent a lot of money, the Dodgers have made some pretty nice moves this offseason. What do you think the next step for them will be? 2B trade?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Yeah, 2B is basically the last thing on the checklist unless they can find a Puig trade.
Q-Ball
12:05
Is Welington Castillo likely to receive a larger deal than the modest arb raise he was in line for? If so, why wouldn't the D-Backs just make a trade to one of the many teams that need a catcher?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Whenever players get surprisingly non-tendered, it's probably best to assume that the team tried to trade him and got no interest. Hazen said as much after the announcement, I believe.
Same thing with Tyson Ross.
12:06
Teams aren't going to non-tender a guy they could trade for value. If the offers aren't there, they aren't there.
MK
12:06
Despite the fact that he has 2 more years after this one, if ryan zimmerman struggles again this year, is this the end of being a regular?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I wouldn't want him as a regular this year.
Erik
12:06
With their latest moves, the Dodgers have moved the tiniest hair ahead of the Cubs in FanGraphs' projected 2017 standings. Would you call the Dodgers the slight favorites, or are the Cubs still the team to beat?
Dave Cameron
12:07
I think they're pretty similar; the Dodgers projection relies a bit more on injured pitchers, though, so they've got more downside.
Matt
12:07
What would the Jays have to give up in a hypothetical Melky Cabrera trade?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Probably just take the contract.
Erik
12:07
Does the Chapman signing indicate that the Yankees think they're ready to be a contender this year? Or are they just rich enough that they can afford to blow that kind of money on a closer in a year when they don't expect to make the playoffs?
Dave Cameron
12:08
The Yankees are a good team. Not in the top tier, but there aren't that many AL teams with better playoff odds.
Erik
12:08
Do you buy the Angels as the wild card team that the projected standings currently has them being?
Dave Cameron
12:08
No
Zonk
12:08
After years of dithering, the White Sox seem to be running the offseason as you suggested. Are you impressed so far?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Yeah, hard to argue with what they've done. I think Giolito is a bit overrated, so I don't think the Eaton deal was the huge steal other people are talking about, but these were good moves.
CarrotJuice
12:09
Clearly the Nats had soured on Giolito. To the best of your knowledge, have multiple teams soured on Giolito as well?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Yep. Pretty much everyone I talked to at the winter meetings said their internal rankings were much lower on Giolito than the public ones.
Everything's On Sale!
12:10
According to ZIPs on ESPN the Red Sox traded ~26 time independent wins (TIW?) for a ~4 win gain in 2017. I know there's some kind of discount rate, but wouldn't you have to think it's an outrageous number in order to not hate the Sale trade? I'm surprised FG thinks this was only a slight overpay.
Dave Cameron
12:10
Well they have Sale for 2017-2019, so comparing all of Moncada's years with just one of Sale's years isn't particularly fair.
12:11
And there's a pretty decent chance that Moncada isn't ready to help a team win for a while, as his contact issue is going to get in the way. He can probably overcome that long-term, but the Byron Buxton path wouldn't be surprising.
Erik
12:11
I know you already disliked the Morales signing, but isn't it made significantly worse by the fact that Encarnacion's market seems to be collapsing? Should the Blue Jays have been able to foresee that they might be able to bring him back for cheap, or at least waited to see how things go before signing his replacement?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I won't knock them for not predicting that Encarnacion's market would dry up, but rushing to sign Morales was silly.
Zonk
12:12
If you are the Nationals, what do you do with your bullpen now? Promote Kelly? Sign Ziegler or one of the other 2nd tier closers? Or look to trade?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Holland makes a lot of sense there. Enough upside to be worth the risk, and if it doesn't work, you aren't locked in forever, and can pivot to pick up someone else mid-season.
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