JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat | 1/25/2017

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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TP

12:01

Do you think Alex Reyes is going to open the season in the rotation?

Dave Cameron

12:02

Whoops; guess we'll answer that question before I say hi.

My guess would be no; he's going to be on an innings limit, and has options, so the easiest way to handle their crowded rotation is to let him work in Triple-A for a month or two.

Anyway, hi everyone. Happy Wednesday.

Erik

12:03

Which division favorite requires the fewest things to go wrong in order to miss the playoffs completely?

Dave Cameron

12:04

Probably Houston. A couple of injuries to guys like Correa, Altuve, or Springer, and they might be sunk.

Monsignor Martinez

12:04

Suppose you could go back in time, take any failed prospect and give him an 80-grade tool. Which player, and what tool?

Dave Cameron

12:04

Mark Prior, 80 health.

CarrotJuice

12:04

Anderson is the Cubs 5th starter, right? No way they still have Montgomery as their 5th starter.

Dave Cameron

12:04

Well, when he's healthy. I'm guessing they'll get another depth guy to take spot starts when he's not.

5 Run Homer

12:05

Minnesota really screwed thrmselves, didn't they? They squandered the only logical trade partner for their star player at the peak of his trade value. What do they do with Dozier now?

Dave Cameron

12:05

Yeah, I think they messed up not getting De Leon, but as always, caveats about medicals and what we don't know included. I don't think there's any real chance Dozier's trade value goes up from here, though.

Johnny5Alive

12:05

Looks like Bruce is penciled in as the starting RF for the Mets, winning be damned!

Dave Cameron

12:06

I know people are really annoyed about this, but the reality is that these pre-season proclamations don't matter, and who starts on Opening Day doesn't even really matter. There are two outcomes here; Bruce plays well enough to justify the job, which is fine, or he plays badly and gets replaced by Conforto, which is fine.

There's no real scenario where Bruce is a huge drain on the team and keeps playing.

The Tone

12:07

Do you see any possible three-way deal with the Mets, White Sox, and Blue Jays that would ship Jay Bruce to the Blue Jays, David Robertson to the Mets, and a few mid-level prospects (from Mets and Jays) to the Sox?

Dave Cameron

12:07

Nope. The Blue Jays are mostly out of money and seem like they're going to go with Carrera/Upton in LF with Pompey hanging around as depth.

Weezy

12:08

What factors have Jose De Leon looking like an ace on projection systems? Is it his dominance of Rookie ball as a 22 yo?

Dave Cameron

12:09

He's never posted a K% below 30% at any level. 6% BB%, 33% K% in Triple-A last year. There's a reason the projections love him; guys who miss bats like this are almost always good.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:10

The Rays have Brad Miller, Tim Beckham, and Nick Franklin for 1B and 2B, and a little more money than last week. How do you see things shaking out on the right side of the infield? Miller at 1B with a Beckham/Franklin platoon at 2B? Shift Miller to 2B and sign a Chris Carter type?

Dave Cameron

12:10

Yeah, I'd move Miller back to 2B, especially with how cheap corner infielders are right now.

Roboto

12:11

Let's say you are the GM for a new expansion team. You have a roster of 25 league average players making the league minimum. You have the option to add any one player to your team immediately on a 6 year $60 million contract. Restrictions being the player cannot be making more than that now and can't have ever won an MVP, ROY, Cy Young, or have been a first round draft choice. Who would you choose?

Dave Cameron

12:11

The money restriction means that it has to be a young pre-arb guy.

The draft pick restriction means you're probably looking at an international player.

12:12

Oh, wait, Mookie!

You take Mookie Betts.

Brett W

12:12

I was disappointed by the lack of an Adam Rosales rule in the new CBA. In your opinion, should excessive waiver claims have been addressed?

Dave Cameron

12:13

Yeah, that's one of those things that should be an easy fix, since the never ending waiver claims benefit no one, but it got lost in the shuffle since the two sides took so long to negotiate the main stuff. Really, though, there's zero reason to allow these guys to bounce around like this.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:13

Biggest loser in the LAD-TB De Leon - Forsythe deal has to be Minnesota, right? Is there any remaining erstwhile contender with a major 2B need? Do the Twins have to hope for Dozier to keep raking into the All Star break and for a contender to develop a need, in order to reap a reward they could have had if they had not gotten greedy?

Dave Cameron

12:14

Best case for Twins now might be to try and re-sign Dozier again, see if they can get more than the two years left they still have, and hope he ages like Kinsler.

Shane

12:14

If the Red Sox were willing to mortgage a large part of their future to win in the next three years with Sale, why are they now worried about staying under the luxury tax? Shouldn't they have done whatever it takes to win now and signed Encarnacion or Bautista?

Dave Cameron

12:15

It is far easier for owners to not care about prospects than to not care about writing big checks for taxes.

Jeremy

12:16

What comps do you see for Haniger, if the Fangraphs writers are right and he's a sneaky-good player?

Dave Cameron

12:16

Marcell Ozuna, maybe?

Or maybe Randal Grichuk. Someone like that.

Seymour

12:17

How does an expansion team field a team/acquire initial talent?

Dave Cameron

12:17

Expansion draft. I think the Rays drafted Bobby Abreu in their expansion draft, then traded him for someone totally useless. Whoops!

Thomas

12:18

Hey thanks for doing the chat! I have a question about lineup composition. Do you think there must be a balance of power and speed and defence guys? Or say if you had a team completly made up of guys that hit and played defence like 2015 and 16 Ender Inciarte (kinda light hitting but amazing defence)...would your team be just as good? I feel it's obviously the latter but never know... always see teams talked about who need to "find some power" etc...

Dave Cameron

12:18

Yeah, you don't really need speed or power or defense; you just need run creation or run prevention. The Royals won the World Series with a line-up of the same kinds of guys.

12:19

Obviously your SS and 1B won't be exactly the same, but you can have relatively good glove/average bat players everywhere and be fine if the pitching and defense are good enough.

Connecting…

GPT

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4:32

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When is DRA coming to Fangraphs? You have the license, yes?

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JT

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4:32

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Do players have NDA's in their contracts? I'm thinking specifically of how the white sox medical/training secrets stay secret

1

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Jays fan

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4:33

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What would Tulo get if he was a free agent?

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greg

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4:41

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Looking at Dan Straily's 2016, it took me by surprise that BR WAR had him at 4.3 and FG at 1.2. Is this 3 win difference due entirely to the 1.12 difference between his FIP and ERA?

1

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Billy

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4:42

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First pick in the draft. Take a chance on high upside in Maitan or go with Eloy Jimenez, Senziel, or Ray?

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duke of earl

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4:42

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Are you an Aledmys Diaz believer?

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Guest

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6:00

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2.5 to 3 WAR talent with 5 WAR upside.

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Outta my way, Gyorkass

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4:50

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Someone posited to me that the reason MIN had such a high ask for Dozier was because they saw the Adam Eaton deal and wanted to emulate it. With the huge disparity in controllable service time between the two players, this is insane, and surely not the Twins real rationale, right?

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CarrotJuice

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6:22

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For the sake of Twins fans, I certainly hope not.

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Joe

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4:52

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What kind of trade package could Manny Machado get if the O's were to deal him prior to the 2017 trade deadline?

1

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Maverik312

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5:04

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Re: Reyes innings limit

I recall reading a quote from the Cardinals how they had him throwing while on suspension to get ahead of the innings limit. The limit will likely be higher than one might anticipate.

1

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???

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4:31

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What would u do right now to improve the jays

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Rico Suave

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4:33

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How do you see Jesse Winker projecting? I'm eating a salad without dressing today.

0

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Erik

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4:34

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If one team currently projected to be under .500 makes the playoffs, who will it be? And how will they do it?

0

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John

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4:35

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Who has the better season Chris Davis or Mark Trumbo?

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Andy

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4:36

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Could David Peralta be the steal of a fantasy draft? If he comes back to life...

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ManBearPuig

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4:38

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Why is Joe Blanton a free agent?

0

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Erik

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4:38

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Which NL East rebuilding team is more likely to make the playoffs in 2018, the Phillies or the Braves? And which will be the better team once both cores have peaked?

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OC

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4:39

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Who is Luis Robert?

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jpg

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4:39

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Should the Dodgers have just brought back Kendrick and Utley and let them platoon at second base? Is Forsythe that big of an upgrade over those two?

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Stlscott

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4:39

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Since steroid use has gone down and players are not supermen late in their late 30's and teams are looking to use younger players if they can, salaries are coming down it seems. This means that teams are making a better percentage of revenue. When if ever will players strike to A) get the minimum salary raised or B) get the years of arbitration reduced? Players are making a bunch of money for sure. However I find it hard to believe that they are ok with this trend. Thanks!

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Bork

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4:39

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Ryan Howard is hoping for one more shot for a ring. Which contending team could use Ryan Howard?

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Skip

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4:40

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Favorite team hat? Favorite hat that you own?

0

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Erik

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4:41

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If Jorge Alfaro becomes who the Phillies hope he will become, what current catcher will he most resemble?

0

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Nick Williams

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4:41

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Does I see any meaningful MLB playing time in '17?

0

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Fang Raphs

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4:41

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Any shot MLB looks at Omaha or Nashville in the future for expansion? Third team in NY? Indianapolis?

0

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GDR

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4:42

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What will the Jays do with LF? They can't seriously consider giving it to a platoon of Upton/Carrera/Pearce/Pompey/Cecilliani

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Rich

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4:42

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What did you expect from Puig over the next few years , and in dynasty league ,16 keepers , who gives more value Puig or Brinson, thank you

0

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Erik

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4:43

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If you knew every organization's "true talent" for scouting and player development, would that correlate more or less strongly with win/loss record than a team's payroll does?

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Robert Griffin IV

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4:43

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I forget if you hate fantasy questions, but if you don't: Dee Gordon for Chris Sale?

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Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

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4:43

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Given his existing service time and injury concerns, does Jose De Leon start the season in the MLB rotation or AAA?

0

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jpg

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4:43

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How long does Preller survive in San Diego? That rotation is a trainwreck.

0

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Toki

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4:43

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Are the Royals looking for a starter now?

0

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Lewis Brinson

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4:44

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Am I a better long-term fantasy prospect than Brendan Rodgers?

0

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Weezy

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4:44

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Sounds like you will be at Eclipsefest. What's you excitement level for the event? How does Eclipsefest compare to other parts of the "personal baseball events" genre?

0

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Conor Gallogly

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4:46

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Where will Wieters end up? Contract size?

0

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Jimmy

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4:46

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Which Mariners pitcher ends the season with the highest WAR?

0

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Toki

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4:48

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How many games do the Braves get out of Kemp this year? Who fills that void when he his hip flairs up?

0

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Brett W

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4:49

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If everyone in the Cubs rotation is healthy at the end of spring, would you put Montgomery or Anderson in the bullpen?

0

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Aron

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4:49

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Andrew Moore seems like kind of a boring prospect, but in a mostly good way - it seems like his ceiling is a 4 and his floor is a 5. Is that a good outcome from the 72nd pick? I remember people saying he was drafted 3-5 rounds too high, but maybe the low-variance pick is a smart move.

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RK

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4:50

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In your opinion, what is a reasonable expectation of impact of moving from bad framers (Suzuki and Centeno) to Jason Castro?

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Bobby Tolan

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4:50

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Hi Dave! Benintendi vs. Bregman - who do you like this year and going forward?

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Outta my way, Gyorkass

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4:51

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What team has the bleakest overall combination of short and long term outlook - Marlins?

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Robin

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4:51

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What do teams/players hope to gain from the attendance bonuses getting attached to contracts? You've mentioned that there is a very small/limited uptick in attendance from big name signings so is it more of a perceived win increase bonus?

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Thomas

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4:53

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i hope any of that made sense

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Outta my way, Gyorkass

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4:53

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Brewers system seems very OF heavy - if this is the area where most of their prospects turn into MLB quality players, what is their course of action - move a few guys? Trade OFs for other positions they seem to be light at like corner infielders or SPs?

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Marty

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4:53

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What is your thoughts on Softball? Why aren't women playing baseball? Why are we making them play a completely different sport? Will we ever see a female in MLB? Give me your offseason thoughts.

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Guest

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4:53

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How is it not baseball season yet, ARE YOU KIDDING ME!

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Slamboni

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4:53

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If (maybe when) the Rangers sign Napoli, how close are they to being a playoff team in 2017?

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Guest

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4:55

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Let's say you were dropped into the 80s with the entirety of fangraphs printed out. Would you win the world series as the GM of a random team?

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Phantastic

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4:55

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You wrote about the marlins quantity and subsequent lack of quality pitching. Some "experts" suggest that building a farm system that centers around pitching depth is backwards, but with teams rebuilding teams like the phillies and braves doing just that, how do you think those teams will fare against teams who build more around bats? Please consider the FA classes of the coming years. Thanks for your thoughts

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Don

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4:57

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Why is everyone so quick to give up on Jurickson Profar when he is the same age as several rookies for this upcoming season?

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EvanC

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4:57

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In pitching, is maximizing strikeouts, suppressing walks, or suppressing homers the most valuable?

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EvanC

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4:58

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Does giving up Jose De Leon for Logan Forsythe (regardless of if it was an overpay) demonstrate how analytics have changed how front offices view players? Ten years ago, Forsythe never would have been viewed worthy of giving up De Leon.

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Slangity

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4:58

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Do you think teams should start keeping their players state side during the off-season? Not to be too knee jerk reactionary, but Major League GMs must be stressed out of their minds when their players go back to rougher parts of South America. Tough to tell a guy he can't go see his family, though.

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Outta my way, Gyorkass

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4:59

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What happens first, universal DH, or a currently rebuilding team like the Brewers, Padres, Reds, etc. wins a WS title?

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cheese

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4:59

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Would Cutch make any sense for the Dodgers to play LF? Would something like Stewart, Verdugo, and Trayce Thompson get it done?

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§igh

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4:59

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Do you think Brett Gardner get traded before opening day ? I cant imagine he has much trade value

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Joel

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5:00

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What's left for the Dodgers this off-season?

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Ed in Iowa

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5:00

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I don't really care about Trumbo or Valbuena, but that was a groovy bit of research. Good work! EJ has How I Became a Pirate basically memorized at this point. At supper he likes to say "Down The Hatch!" so, thanks I guess

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§igh

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5:00

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How long of a leash do you think Judge has ? Yankees have a ton of OF depth. Are they strictly in play the kids mode to see what they have ?

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A Man A Plan A Panama Canal

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5:01

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Dave I need you to drop some names of pitchers that you think will make the "leap" this year.

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Outta my way, Gyorkass

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5:01

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If the Marlins wanted to start all over from scratch, how much would they have to eat of Stanton's contract to get any real value in return? Or, is this kind of a Votto or Cabrera situation where it's unmovable in part due to the financial burden and also part due to resistance to moving a "franchise player" ?

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§igh

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5:01

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Who do you think has a higher upside Kapriellan or Chance adams ?

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Connor

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5:02

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Best move of the offseason so far?

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Tim

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5:02

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Where does Sean Newcomb go from here with the Braves rotation?

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Bret

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5:02

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Is Joe Musgrove any more than a 4-5 starter?

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Matt

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5:02

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What are your thoughts on Jake Lamb coming into next season. I think the power is legit (25ish HRs) but I'm a bit worried about his OBP. The walk rate isn't terrible, but I think that K% is tearing it down.

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§igh

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5:02

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What are the rays doing ? They have tons of pitching but their offense leaves alot to be desired. Thoughts ?

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Weezy

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5:02

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In addition to the 'everyday player' mantra you speak of in the Valbuena/Trumbo article, isn't there something to be said for the pretty large gap between career performance? trumbo's 2017 wasn't even his best year by wRC+, and has a career 111 wRC+, while Valbuena's is 96. Couldn't a part also be a more sustained offensive track record?

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Tim

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5:03

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What are the odds that Maitan could start the year in Rome?

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Sandy Kazmir

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5:03

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Can you share with the rest of us fallible humans what it is like to have never been wrong?

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Chris

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5:03

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Does the same answer apply to Weaver? Or does he get the 5th rotation spot?

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Guest

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6:04

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Weaver starts in AAA. Martinez, Wainwright, Lynn, Leake, Reyes, Wacha are all ahead of him.

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Jaff

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5:03

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Does the hype around Jose Deleon seem similar to the the hype around Jose Berrios about a year ago?

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Jordan

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5:04

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Do you think any team could trade for Harper or Trout (Specifically Trout) from prospect capital and still remain competitive? Or would said team just quickly turn into the Angels?

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Craner

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5:04

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Of the remaining lefties, who would be your pick?

0

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Johann

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5:04

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Other than Montreal, what do see as the best US market and with the least amount of barriers to another expansion team?

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Andrew

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5:04

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More likely: Rays trade Odorizzi for a bat or they sign Napoli/Carter/Moss/Reynolds for cheap?

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Eno Sarris

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5:05

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Give us a pitcher that no one is really looking at who can have a big impact this year

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Sterling Malory Chris Archer

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5:05

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Follow up feom

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Johann

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5:05

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What would you consider are three attributes you look for in a MiLB ballpark environment?

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Colin

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5:05

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Koji Uehara needs to updated on the Free Agent Tracker.

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Craner

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5:05

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Should the Blue Jays acquire a LF who can hit RHP, or give the job to Pompey?

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powder

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5:06

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The Dodgers get Forsythe and lose De Leon. The Giants get Hwang and lose no one. Has SF maintained the gap, or has one team improved more than the other with those two moves?

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Sterling Malory Chris Archer

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5:06

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Follow up from last weeks question: If you were forced to do a write up of every start of a 1-2 WAR pitcher, who would you pick?

0

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Billy

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5:06

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What are your thoughts on Allard and triston Mckenzie ceiling?

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Nobody Important

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5:06

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What team will sign Joe Blanton?

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Johann

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5:07

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Does Kevin Gausman have the gumption to become the Orioles staff ace in 2017?

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§igh

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5:07

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Do you see Brett Gardner getting traded before opening day?

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Andrew

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5:08

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IF the Mets get 150+ starts from Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo, what are their odds of winning the division?

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Sonny

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5:08

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Is there an obligation for rebuilding clubs to court players/a playing style that is entertaining? I'm thinking of SD stealing home while the Braves let Markaikis fart around out there?

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Sleeper Star

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5:08

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To start: We know that pitchers decline/age differently than field players. Now that that's out of the way: What do you think the next 2-3 years will be like for Max Scherzer? He looks like a prototypical power-throwing righty and he's logged 30+GS/170+IP for eight straight seasons (187+IP for the last seven). He turns 33 in late-July. Anyone you can compare him to?

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Sandy Kazmir

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5:09

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Interested in your thoughts on Keith Law having Jose De Leon as the 73rd best prospect in baseball.

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Nobody Important

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5:09

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What are the Angels going to do at catcher?

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Chaps

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5:10

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Since Lunhow's said they most likely won't be making any more additions to the roster before spring training, how big of a hole would the Astros need to dig themselves into before deciding to trade for Quintana / Gray / Archer once the season starts?

0

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Josh in DC

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5:10

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What sort of in-season moves do you think are possible for the Red Sox, especially given their desire to reset stay under the luxury tax threshold?

0

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Phantastic

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5:12

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the phillies haven't had a legitimate 3B since Scott Rolen. Do you think Maikel Franco realizes his potential this year and becomes an above average 3B on both sides of the ball?

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E

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5:12

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Do the Indians have anymore holes or needs you would like to see them address via free agency?

0

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David

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5:12

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Thoughts on Jesse Winker? Was his lack of power simply due to a wrist injury last year, or is his ceiling not as high as previously thought?

0

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