Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:38
Interesting; is the difference between Sale and Quintana worth keeping Kopech? I think Boston would probably say no. I might say yes, but that might be because of how high a few people I've talked to are on Kopech.
Erik
12:39
Bellinger is the only example I can think of where a player has been deliberately kept lower on the defensive spectrum, not due to being blocked, but because he plays such good defense down there. Are there any other recent examples?
Dave Cameron
12:39
Adrian Beltre, maybe? He was so good at 3B that no one ever considered moving him to SS, but he almost certainly was athletic enough that he could have handled it.
Chris
12:40
Assuming Carson Smith is at full strength in July, where do you rate him compared to the Red Sox other set-up options (Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Tyler Thornburg)
Dave Cameron
12:41
That bullpen could be insanely good if he comes back at close to pre-TJ levels. Would guess Kelly and Thornburg establish themselves as two primary setup guys, so Smith/Barnes would be middle guys.
Larry Jones
12:42
Do you like corey ray or lewis brinson as the long term CF option for the brew crew?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Brinson.
Though if Jeff is right about Broxton, they might both be corner guys.
Slew
12:42
Tell the MBA guy that if he's great at networking, an MBA at a top school could really pay off. If he's not, he'd be lighting money on fire.
pirates hurdles
12:43
Wow, I had forgot that Abreu factoid, it was Kevin Stocker, Abreu broke out immediately.
Dave Cameron
12:43
One of the classic awful trades in MLB history.
00
12:43
Where do you stand on Robbie Ray?
Dave Cameron
12:44
I think he'll eventually move to a different style of pitching, with fewer Ks and fewer hard-hit balls, but still be a back-end starter.
CarrotJuice
12:44
Odds that Kopech has a better career than Giolito?
Dave Cameron
12:44
60%, based on my totally made up guess.
Otter
12:45
If the Astros don't think they need him, the Yankees aren't in any rush to get him, it's hard to find a deal that works with the Pirates for him, and everyone else either doesn't really need him/have the pieces to get him... what happens to Jose Quintana? We're three weeks from Spring Training, he shouldn't be reporting to camp with the Sox, but it looks like he will be.
Dave Cameron
12:45
They could flip him in July.
Prich
12:46
Heyman says Rockies close on Holland... Good 'strategy' for them, provided the #s aren't insane?
Dave Cameron
12:46
If they're actually guaranteeing him something like $10M by giving him an opt out after one year on a multi-year deal, than no, I think the risk outweighs the reward.
Worst Trade?
12:47
Colon for Sizemore, C Lee and B Philips? Or Casey Blake for C Santana? Based on info at the time.
Dave Cameron
12:47
Well Jonah will tell you the Colon deal was fine because the front office knew the team wasn't going to exist so why build for the future?
_David_
12:48
Do velo/breaking/bad command/bad performance guys have a better shot at being good relievers, and does this raise their floor?
Dave Cameron
12:49
That's the assumption, and Dellin Betances certainly fits the mold, but then you see guys like Liam Hendriks suddenly hitting 97 out of the bullpen. I don't think it's so easy to say that stuff guys are definitely better relief conversion projects, since some no-stuff starters end up as good-stuff relievers.
Fernando
12:49
How confident are you in Giolito being able to fulfill the potential many scouts projected for him?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Not at all.
Matt
12:50
Chipotle or Q'Doba?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Local taco joint. Every city has them.
A cat
12:50
Rumor has Kelly going back down to PAW to stretch out as a starter and develop his new slider that he broke out in the playoffs. This seems like the old joke of putting the sour milk back in the refrigerator for another week to see if it gets better.
Dave Cameron
12:51
Kelly was so good in relief that I can't imagine they really move him back.
CarrotJuice
12:51
BREAKING: Rockies about to sign Greg Holland! Why would Greg Holland try to rebuild value in Coors Field?
Dave Cameron
12:51
They probably bid more.
Erik
12:51
It's generally said that you need at least 3 average pitches and average command to start. But if one of those things is excellent, can you survive without the other? Could someone with a 70-grade third pitch start with 30-grade command? Or 70-grade command but a 30-grade third pitch?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Bartolo Colon has one zero average pitches, and only throws one pitch.
If you have insanely good command, the stuff requirements aren't really true.
12:53
You can also be good with insane stuff and lousy command, but that's less common. Being able to throw the ball where you want it is really, really important.
TengoPreguntas
12:53
Guaranteeing Holland 2 years with an opt out and thus assuming all the risk is a very Rockies move, isn't it?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Yup.
CarrotJuice
12:53
Do you think the De Leon trade was worse (for the Dodgers) than the Heaney/Hendricks trade?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Yes, because De Leon > Heaney.
12:54
Okay, going to wrap things up five minutes early today. Taking the wife skiing this afternoon, so let's please have no more meaningful transactions today.
Connecting...
GPT
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4:32
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When is DRA coming to Fangraphs? You have the license, yes?
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JT
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4:32
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Do players have NDA's in their contracts? I'm thinking specifically of how the white sox medical/training secrets stay secret
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Jays fan
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4:33
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What would Tulo get if he was a free agent?
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greg
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4:41
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Looking at Dan Straily's 2016, it took me by surprise that BR WAR had him at 4.3 and FG at 1.2. Is this 3 win difference due entirely to the 1.12 difference between his FIP and ERA?
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Billy
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4:42
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First pick in the draft. Take a chance on high upside in Maitan or go with Eloy Jimenez, Senziel, or Ray?
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duke of earl
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4:42
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Are you an Aledmys Diaz believer?
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Guest
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6:00
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2.5 to 3 WAR talent with 5 WAR upside.
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Outta my way, Gyorkass
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4:50
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Someone posited to me that the reason MIN had such a high ask for Dozier was because they saw the Adam Eaton deal and wanted to emulate it. With the huge disparity in controllable service time between the two players, this is insane, and surely not the Twins real rationale, right?
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CarrotJuice
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6:22
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For the sake of Twins fans, I certainly hope not.
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Joe
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4:52
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What kind of trade package could Manny Machado get if the O's were to deal him prior to the 2017 trade deadline?
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Maverik312
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5:04
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Re: Reyes innings limit

I recall reading a quote from the Cardinals how they had him throwing while on suspension to get ahead of the innings limit. The limit will likely be higher than one might anticipate.
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???
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4:31
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What would u do right now to improve the jays
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Rico Suave
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4:33
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How do you see Jesse Winker projecting? I'm eating a salad without dressing today.
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Erik
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4:34
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If one team currently projected to be under .500 makes the playoffs, who will it be? And how will they do it?
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John
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4:35
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Who has the better season Chris Davis or Mark Trumbo?
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Andy
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4:36
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Could David Peralta be the steal of a fantasy draft? If he comes back to life...
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ManBearPuig
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4:38
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Why is Joe Blanton a free agent?
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Erik
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4:38
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Which NL East rebuilding team is more likely to make the playoffs in 2018, the Phillies or the Braves? And which will be the better team once both cores have peaked?
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OC
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4:39
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Who is Luis Robert?
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jpg
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4:39
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Should the Dodgers have just brought back Kendrick and Utley and let them platoon at second base? Is Forsythe that big of an upgrade over those two?
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Stlscott
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4:39
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Since steroid use has gone down and players are not supermen late in their late 30's and teams are looking to use younger players if they can, salaries are coming down it seems. This means that teams are making a better percentage of revenue. When if ever will players strike to A) get the minimum salary raised or B) get the years of arbitration reduced? Players are making a bunch of money for sure. However I find it hard to believe that they are ok with this trend. Thanks!
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Bork
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4:39
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Ryan Howard is hoping for one more shot for a ring. Which contending team could use Ryan Howard?
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Skip
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4:40
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Favorite team hat? Favorite hat that you own?
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Erik
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4:41
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If Jorge Alfaro becomes who the Phillies hope he will become, what current catcher will he most resemble?
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Nick Williams
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4:41
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Does I see any meaningful MLB playing time in '17?
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Fang Raphs
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4:41
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Any shot MLB looks at Omaha or Nashville in the future for expansion? Third team in NY? Indianapolis?
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GDR
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4:42
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What will the Jays do with LF? They can't seriously consider giving it to a platoon of Upton/Carrera/Pearce/Pompey/Cecilliani
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Rich
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4:42
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What did you expect from Puig over the next few years , and in dynasty league ,16 keepers , who gives more value Puig or Brinson, thank you
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Erik
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4:43
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If you knew every organization's "true talent" for scouting and player development, would that correlate more or less strongly with win/loss record than a team's payroll does?
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Robert Griffin IV
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4:43
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I forget if you hate fantasy questions, but if you don't: Dee Gordon for Chris Sale?
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Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
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4:43
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Given his existing service time and injury concerns, does Jose De Leon start the season in the MLB rotation or AAA?
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jpg
 - 
4:43
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How long does Preller survive in San Diego? That rotation is a trainwreck.
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Toki
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4:43
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Are the Royals looking for a starter now?
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Lewis Brinson
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4:44
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Am I a better long-term fantasy prospect than Brendan Rodgers?
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Weezy
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4:44
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Sounds like you will be at Eclipsefest. What's you excitement level for the event? How does Eclipsefest compare to other parts of the "personal baseball events" genre?
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Conor Gallogly
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4:46
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Where will Wieters end up? Contract size?
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Jimmy
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4:46
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Which Mariners pitcher ends the season with the highest WAR?
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Toki
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4:48
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How many games do the Braves get out of Kemp this year? Who fills that void when he his hip flairs up?
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Brett W
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4:49
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If everyone in the Cubs rotation is healthy at the end of spring, would you put Montgomery or Anderson in the bullpen?
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Aron
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4:49
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Andrew Moore seems like kind of a boring prospect, but in a mostly good way - it seems like his ceiling is a 4 and his floor is a 5. Is that a good outcome from the 72nd pick? I remember people saying he was drafted 3-5 rounds too high, but maybe the low-variance pick is a smart move.
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RK
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4:50
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In your opinion, what is a reasonable expectation of impact of moving from bad framers (Suzuki and Centeno) to Jason Castro?
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Bobby Tolan
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4:50
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Hi Dave! Benintendi vs. Bregman - who do you like this year and going forward?
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Outta my way, Gyorkass
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4:51
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What team has the bleakest overall combination of short and long term outlook - Marlins?
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Robin
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4:51
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What do teams/players hope to gain from the attendance bonuses getting attached to contracts? You've mentioned that there is a very small/limited uptick in attendance from big name signings so is it more of a perceived win increase bonus?
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Thomas
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4:53
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i hope any of that made sense
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Outta my way, Gyorkass
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4:53
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Brewers system seems very OF heavy - if this is the area where most of their prospects turn into MLB quality players, what is their course of action - move a few guys? Trade OFs for other positions they seem to be light at like corner infielders or SPs?
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Marty
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4:53
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What is your thoughts on Softball? Why aren't women playing baseball? Why are we making them play a completely different sport? Will we ever see a female in MLB? Give me your offseason thoughts.
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Guest
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4:53
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How is it not baseball season yet, ARE YOU KIDDING ME!
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Slamboni
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4:53
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If (maybe when) the Rangers sign Napoli, how close are they to being a playoff team in 2017?
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Guest
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4:55
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Let's say you were dropped into the 80s with the entirety of fangraphs printed out. Would you win the world series as the GM of a random team?
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Phantastic
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4:55
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You wrote about the marlins quantity and subsequent lack of quality pitching. Some "experts" suggest that building a farm system that centers around pitching depth is backwards, but with teams rebuilding teams like the phillies and braves doing just that, how do you think those teams will fare against teams who build more around bats? Please consider the FA classes of the coming years. Thanks for your thoughts
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Don
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4:57
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Why is everyone so quick to give up on Jurickson Profar when he is the same age as several rookies for this upcoming season?
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EvanC
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4:57
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In pitching, is maximizing strikeouts, suppressing walks, or suppressing homers the most valuable?
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EvanC
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4:58
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Does giving up Jose De Leon for Logan Forsythe (regardless of if it was an overpay) demonstrate how analytics have changed how front offices view players? Ten years ago, Forsythe never would have been viewed worthy of giving up De Leon.
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Slangity
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4:58
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Do you think teams should start keeping their players state side during the off-season? Not to be too knee jerk reactionary, but Major League GMs must be stressed out of their minds when their players go back to rougher parts of South America. Tough to tell a guy he can't go see his family, though.
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Outta my way, Gyorkass
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4:59
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What happens first, universal DH, or a currently rebuilding team like the Brewers, Padres, Reds, etc. wins a WS title?
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cheese
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4:59
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Would Cutch make any sense for the Dodgers to play LF? Would something like Stewart, Verdugo, and Trayce Thompson get it done?
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§igh
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4:59
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Do you think Brett Gardner get traded before opening day ? I cant imagine he has much trade value
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Joel
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5:00
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What's left for the Dodgers this off-season?
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Ed in Iowa
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5:00
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I don't really care about Trumbo or Valbuena, but that was a groovy bit of research. Good work! EJ has How I Became a Pirate basically memorized at this point. At supper he likes to say "Down The Hatch!" so, thanks I guess
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§igh
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5:00
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How long of a leash do you think Judge has ? Yankees have a ton of OF depth. Are they strictly in play the kids mode to see what they have ?
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A Man A Plan A Panama Canal
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5:01
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Dave I need you to drop some names of pitchers that you think will make the "leap" this year.
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Outta my way, Gyorkass
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5:01
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If the Marlins wanted to start all over from scratch, how much would they have to eat of Stanton's contract to get any real value in return? Or, is this kind of a Votto or Cabrera situation where it's unmovable in part due to the financial burden and also part due to resistance to moving a "franchise player" ?
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§igh
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5:01
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Who do you think has a higher upside Kapriellan or Chance adams ?
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Connor
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5:02
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Best move of the offseason so far?
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Tim
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5:02
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Where does Sean Newcomb go from here with the Braves rotation?
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Bret
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5:02
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Is Joe Musgrove any more than a 4-5 starter?
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Matt
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5:02
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What are your thoughts on Jake Lamb coming into next season. I think the power is legit (25ish HRs) but I'm a bit worried about his OBP. The walk rate isn't terrible, but I think that K% is tearing it down.
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§igh
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5:02
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What are the rays doing ? They have tons of pitching but their offense leaves alot to be desired. Thoughts ?
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Weezy
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5:02
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In addition to the 'everyday player' mantra you speak of in the Valbuena/Trumbo article, isn't there something to be said for the pretty large gap between career performance? trumbo's 2017 wasn't even his best year by wRC+, and has a career 111 wRC+, while Valbuena's is 96. Couldn't a part also be a more sustained offensive track record?
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Tim
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5:03
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What are the odds that Maitan could start the year in Rome?
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Sandy Kazmir
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5:03
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Can you share with the rest of us fallible humans what it is like to have never been wrong?
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Chris
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5:03
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Does the same answer apply to Weaver? Or does he get the 5th rotation spot?
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Guest
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6:04
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Weaver starts in AAA. Martinez, Wainwright, Lynn, Leake, Reyes, Wacha are all ahead of him.
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Jaff
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5:03
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Does the hype around Jose Deleon seem similar to the the hype around Jose Berrios about a year ago?
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Jordan
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5:04
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Do you think any team could trade for Harper or Trout (Specifically Trout) from prospect capital and still remain competitive? Or would said team just quickly turn into the Angels?
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Craner
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5:04
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Of the remaining lefties, who would be your pick?
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Johann
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5:04
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Other than Montreal, what do see as the best US market and with the least amount of barriers to another expansion team?
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Andrew
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5:04
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More likely: Rays trade Odorizzi for a bat or they sign Napoli/Carter/Moss/Reynolds for cheap?
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Eno Sarris
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5:05
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Give us a pitcher that no one is really looking at who can have a big impact this year
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Sterling Malory Chris Archer
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5:05
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Follow up feom
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Johann
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5:05
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What would you consider are three attributes you look for in a MiLB ballpark environment?
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Colin
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5:05
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Koji Uehara needs to updated on the Free Agent Tracker.
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Craner
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5:05
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Should the Blue Jays acquire a LF who can hit RHP, or give the job to Pompey?
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powder
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5:06
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The Dodgers get Forsythe and lose De Leon. The Giants get Hwang and lose no one. Has SF maintained the gap, or has one team improved more than the other with those two moves?
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Sterling Malory Chris Archer
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5:06
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Follow up from last weeks question: If you were forced to do a write up of every start of a 1-2 WAR pitcher, who would you pick?
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Billy
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5:06
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What are your thoughts on Allard and triston Mckenzie ceiling?
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Nobody Important
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5:06
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What team will sign Joe Blanton?
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Johann
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5:07
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Does Kevin Gausman have the gumption to become the Orioles staff ace in 2017?
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§igh
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5:07
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Do you see Brett Gardner getting traded before opening day?
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Andrew
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5:08
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IF the Mets get 150+ starts from Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo, what are their odds of winning the division?
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Sonny
 - 
5:08
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Is there an obligation for rebuilding clubs to court players/a playing style that is entertaining? I'm thinking of SD stealing home while the Braves let Markaikis fart around out there?
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Sleeper Star
 - 
5:08
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To start: We know that pitchers decline/age differently than field players. Now that that's out of the way: What do you think the next 2-3 years will be like for Max Scherzer? He looks like a prototypical power-throwing righty and he's logged 30+GS/170+IP for eight straight seasons (187+IP for the last seven). He turns 33 in late-July. Anyone you can compare him to?
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Sandy Kazmir
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5:09
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Interested in your thoughts on Keith Law having Jose De Leon as the 73rd best prospect in baseball.
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Nobody Important
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5:09
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What are the Angels going to do at catcher?
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Chaps
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5:10
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Since Lunhow's said they most likely won't be making any more additions to the roster before spring training, how big of a hole would the Astros need to dig themselves into before deciding to trade for Quintana / Gray / Archer once the season starts?
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Josh in DC
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5:10
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What sort of in-season moves do you think are possible for the Red Sox, especially given their desire to reset stay under the luxury tax threshold?
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Phantastic
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5:12
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the phillies haven't had a legitimate 3B since Scott Rolen. Do you think Maikel Franco realizes his potential this year and becomes an above average 3B on both sides of the ball?
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E
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5:12
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Do the Indians have anymore holes or needs you would like to see them address via free agency?
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David
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5:12
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Thoughts on Jesse Winker? Was his lack of power simply due to a wrist injury last year, or is his ceiling not as high as previously thought?
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