JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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12:33

How do you think the last rotation spot for the Dodgers works out?

Dave Cameron

12:34

I would guess Kazmir gets it out of ST, with McCarthy, Ryu, and Stripling around as depth.

Matt

12:34

Not sure I follow- how did Houston get negative PR from having been violated.

Dave Cameron

12:34

They got crushed when the trade transcripts were leaked to Deadspin.

Crushed.

12:35

What kind of stat line would you expect this year from Mitch Haniger? Seems like most are either very high on him or think he might not be all that great

Dave Cameron

12:35

Well, again, I think it's perfectly fine to think he's in between those extremes. I think he looks like a league average hitter with potentially a very good glove in RF.

Sonny

12:36

Any insight into the conversations rebuilding GMs have with ownership? There has to be extraordinary trust to watch your team be sold off (Miami excluded)

Dave Cameron

12:37

Well, most owners realize things are cyclical, and sometimes they have to have down periods where they won't win. Plus, they like spending less money, and that's usually what teams do during rebuilds.

Tom

12:37

Is Quintana's trade value directly related to the number of remaining starts he could make over the life of his contract? For example, if he could be expected to make 130 starts over the next four years, barring injury, would be lose 1/130th of his value with each start he makes this year?

Dave Cameron

12:37

No, it's not quite that linear.

12:38

It's more like he'd lose minimal value from going from 130-115 starts, because of the price hikes at the deadline, but he'd lose a lot of value once he below 110 or so, because then it drops to ~100 and there's an entire postseason lost.

Andy

12:39

Re: Jones and Robertson... How should the White Sox handle who saves/pitches more high-leverage spots? I feel like Jones is a secret around the league and wouldn't yield the same return as his skillset might warrant -- especially since he hasn't really closed.

Dave Cameron

12:39

I'd probably dump Robertson now, make Jones the closer, trade him in July.

RJS

12:40

I asked this in another chat but would like your opinion: when someone refers to 1 WAR = $8mn that is a linear approximation. Shouldn't a WAR "curve" be more logarithmic given the number of 2 Win players and a paucity of 6 Win players?

Dave Cameron

12:40

I've written a lot about this in the past. Here's one piece, for instance. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/linear-dollars-per-win-again/

12:41

The short answer is that while consolidating value into one player creates more upside, it also increases risk, as one injury can wipe out a greater portion of your team's playoff chances. So higher risk and higher reward doesn't necessarily equal higher prices.

Bort

12:41

If both Harper and Machado were FAs right now, who gets the bigger payday?

Dave Cameron

12:41

Harper

Manu

12:42

Are you high on Foltynewicza.

Dave Cameron

12:42

That sounds like a hidden verse in the Chanukah song.

(Not really, no)

v2micca

12:42

It seems that a major factor depressing Major League salaries is the number of teams that correctly identify their young stars and convince them to sign away their free agency years at a discount price. Will we start seeing increased push back from agents any time soon?

Dave Cameron

12:43

I think we're starting to already.

That Wil Myers extension was not cheap at all, for instance.

Adge

12:43

Out of the box idea. Jays sign Utley to play LF vs RHP. He gets more PA this way than any 2B platoon i see and can play for a playoff threat.

Dave Cameron

12:44

I don't think an aging Chase Utley would be a very good outfielder.

Ned Ghost

12:44

Cubs just traded for Eddie Butler, any thoughts?

Dave Cameron

12:44

He's always struck me as a guy who probably needed to move to the bullpen.

If they convert him, maybe it works.

DTH

12:45

Rays move Brad Miller to 2B, trade Odorizzi to the Cubs for Candelario, Almora, and Donnie Dewees. fair and helpful to both sides or am I a big dumb idiot?

Dave Cameron

12:45

Don't the Rays have enough center fielders?

v2micca

12:45

If Heyward can't fix his swing and start producing value with his Offense, how much longer will he be able to rely on his defense to provide value as a player?

Dave Cameron

12:45

He was roughly league average last year, and he's going to hit better than he did last year.

12:46

What does Pedroia need to do to get into the hall of fame? Already has about 50 war through age 32 season. Does he just need to stick around for a while or does he need a lot more star caliber seasons ?

Dave Cameron

12:46

He needs to age really well.

I doubt he gets there.

Bart

12:47

Who is the best catcher after Buster? Lucroy? The Kraken?

Dave Cameron

12:47

I'd probably go with Sanchez.

Brett W

12:47