Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Erik
12:35
Could the MLB not allow players to skip the WBC? The idea that it's a big injury risk seems unfounded, since the players who skip just end up playing in spring training...where they could get injured. Is it within the league's power to tell players they can't opt out?
Dave Cameron
12:36
No, the players contracts do not require them to play in the WBC, and legally, MLB has no power to force them to play in it.
steve
12:36
Is the difference in projected war between conforto and bruce (-0.6 war) worth the Mets trading bruce and paying maybe $5million of his $13 and take a Low A reliever? give conforto the playing time at the cost of $5 million for the at bats
Dave Cameron
12:36
I don't think they could move Bruce even at $8 million right now.
Scott
12:37
What do you think of the detail from Passan's article, about a 0-100 WAR scale? So Trout would be a 100, Machado is about a 65 player, etc.?
Dave Cameron
12:37
Well, at that point, it's not WAR, which is, by definition, measured in wins. That would just be "Player Rating System" or something.
Dan
12:38
When will the 2017 Player Profiles appear on players' fangraphs pages?
Dave Cameron
12:38
I believe the plan is for them to go up this week.
Sam
12:39
Where do you think Brett Gardner ends up and for what return?
Dave Cameron
12:39
In New York, playing for a Yankees team that's better than people think.
JR
12:39
Where does Lawrie end up?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Toronto, maybe? Travis' injury problems create an opportunity at 2B, and they're clearly okay with confident, outspoken guys.
Plus he probably wouldn't mind going back to Canada.
Jake
12:41
People seem to think Braves can win 80+ and possibly contend, hard to see when you look at that roster and especially rotation, Bartolo can implode at any moment and Dicket wasn't very good last year.
Dave Cameron
12:41
I think we have them at ~75 wins, so getting to 80 doesn't take that much good luck. The idea that they're legit contenders is a bit more of a fairy tale.
mike sixel
12:42
This idea of basically ignoring defenders and the wall and crediting hitters for how they hit the ball regardless of outcomes seems off to me. Where do you draw the line? What if an umpire misses an easy strike three? Does the pitcher get credit for a K? What do you do with the hitters' outcome on later pitch(es)?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Right, these aren't easy answers. It's not obviously clear what you do with situations like that. It depends on what the goal is, for one, but even when you define that, there are still reasonable arguments for different options.
Luda
12:43
How do you see Schwarbers playing time play out? Catching 1-2 games/week and playing LF 2-3 games/week.
Dave Cameron
12:44
LF 5 days a week, catching almost never.
Jason
12:44
The projections are very low on Brandon Drury - am I missing something?
Dave Cameron
12:44
His minor league numbers aren't very good once you park adjust for his environments.
Hunky Dory
12:45
Re: Gardner - if he stays, how do you foresee 2017 going in terms of at-bats for Clint Frazier?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Not sure he's big league ready this year.
CamdenWarehouse
12:46
Doesn't Lawrie seem like the perfect type of player to spend a year or two in Korea and then come back a la Thames?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Based on what I've heard about Brett Lawrie, I don't know that he's the best fit for a cultural world tour.
ctw
12:47
better player over the next 2/3 years, AJ Pollock or Starling Marte
Dave Cameron
12:47
Pollock, if he's healthy.
biffyclyro
12:47
Do you personally find satisfaction when a season plays out as the analytics and analysis/predictions would've suggested (Cubs in 2016)? Or do you prefer a more chaotic season when something unforeseen happens?
Dave Cameron
12:47
If everything happened exactly as we said it would, it would be pretty boring.
I don't think we're really fighting for credibility much anymore these days, so we don't really need reality to match the projections for people to take the idea of analytics seriously.
ctw
12:48
what's your prediction for how the Pirates OF shakes out over the next year? Meadows underwhelms in AAA and doesn't force his way in, Cutch underperforms, an injury, a trade?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Someone gets hurt, allowing Meadows to get the call-up, in which he performs well and forces them to keep him on the roster. Then roll with 4 OFs, with everyone getting some off days, and then Cutch is traded next winter.
HappyFunBall
12:49
So I think the answer is multiple metrics, or at least multiple versions of the same metric. Something like aWAR (actual), nWAR (park and defense neutral), etc... where you make adjustments (or not) for various variables depending on what description you really want
Dave Cameron
12:50
Yeah, I think that's probably the best option too, but people already think just the fact that B-R and FG have different versions of WAR is a problem. If there are like 10 WARs out there, with hugely different numbers, I can see it not going over well.
Michael
12:50
How many Mets starters finish in NL Top 5 Cy voting?
Dave Cameron
12:50
1.
Guest
12:51
My understanding is that generally it's not as smart to invest when the market is so high. However, if I am 22 and looking to start my IRA, is the current market not a concern because I'll be invested for 45 years? Should I go ahead and open an IRA ?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Timing the market is a fool's errand. Especially since you're not cashing out any time soon, just put your money in an index fund and don't look at it for a while.
Jason (not the 12:44 one)
12:52
Most likely places Trout/Harper sign once their contracts expire?
Dave Cameron
12:53
General expectation is Harper to the Yankees. Trout is probably tougher to peg.
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