Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:00
Happy last Wednesday before baseball, everyone.
12:02
Let's do our final preseason chat of the year.
And look forward to some real baseball on Sunday.
senorsilver
12:02
Anything to Thames struggles in the spring? Maybe one guy where spring is relevant?
Dave Cameron
12:03
I doubt it. He's always had power, even before he went to the KBO, and there's zero reason to think that faded over the winter.
Erik
12:03
In a division with two bad teams, like the NL East, how much do you think the players care about at least finishing higher than one team in the division? Obviously, players are hyper-competitive and want to win every game, but at the end of the season, will the Phillies or Braves be happy that they at least finished higher than the other team, even if it's objectively worse for the team's future since it means a worse draft pick?
Dave Cameron
12:03
I don't think they care.
I think for most of them, there isn't a huge difference between non-postseason places in the standings.
Stevil
12:04
Hey Dave. The Dodgers appear to have a lefty-heavy pen with Wood in the fold. The Mariners can't possibly be content with their internal options for a regular, second southpaw. Do you see a possible deal there?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Guessing the Mariners are more concerned about their rotation today, given that Drew Smyly might start on the DL now.
CarrotJuice
12:05
Could 1 team hypothetically "buy" a players contract from another team? As in could the Dodgers simply write a $200 mil check to the Rays to get Chris Archer without giving up any talent? If this was possible, would that $200 mil (or however much it cost) count towards the luxury tax?
Dave Cameron
12:05
MLB won't allow that kind of cash-for-player deal, so teams get around it by taking dead weight contracts. This is what the Touki Toussaint trade was.
Sonny
12:06
How motivated would KC be to take advantage of the first mover bonus? How much more in a trade would a Herrera be worth June 1 rather than July 31st?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I think they'd have to be a total disaster the first two months to sell that early.
Their division isn't good, and so even if they're just sitting around .500, they're likely to be fighting for second place.
Eddie Waitkus
12:07
Are we going to see a shift in resting players more often similar to NBA?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Yep. Not this year, but that's coming.
12:08
I think we're a few years away from the end of the 162-games-a-year player, and we'll move more towards most guys playing closer to 140 than 160.
CarrotJuice
12:08
Am I crazy in that I *don't* like the return the White Sox got for Eaton?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Well, it depends on why you don't like it. If you're down on Giolito and Lopez particularly, that's fine, and perfectly reasonable. If you think they could have gotten more from another team, that's probably not true.
Meowmix
12:09
Who do you see the Cubs targeting if the Almora/Jay CF platoon underwhelms?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Probably Heyward to CF, Zobrist or Bryant to RF so that Baez can play 2B.
Right Field vs SS
12:10
Which position has more superstars?
Dave Cameron
12:10
SS is just loaded right now.
David
12:11
How many years behind the teams is the public on player value analysis? Is the public further behind in certain specific areas like pitch framing e.g. than others?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Not that far. The primary differences between the teams and the public are related to health and personality/motivation stuff, but a lot of that plays more into projections than value. There are definitely some differences, but it's not like there's a team out there that has figured out that Trout is actually worth 13 WAR.
12:13
When it comes to turning results into runs and wins, there's not that much room for disagreement. The bigger issues are about forecasting those results.
Houzer
12:13
Angel Pagan to the Tigers? What kind of contract does he get?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Probably nothing more than a few million at this point.
But they should really be acquiring outfielders.
Q-Ball
12:14
Jonah Keri released his trade value rankings, and had Mike Trout at #3, behind Seager and Bryant, due to years of control. Sound right to you? Are you going to do your take on this?
Dave Cameron
12:15
It will be interesting to gauge the industry again this summer, but last year, I couldn't find anyone who would take Seager over Correa.
I do think Trout probably drops out of #1 this summer. He was close to falling out last year.
Ted
12:15
What is a reasonably optimistic scenario for the Yankees this year? I could see a WC run but I'm also a homer
Dave Cameron
12:16
A WC run isn't even that optimistic. This is a pretty decent team that just needs a few underachievers (Pineda, specifically) to live up to their talent.
Richie
12:16
So with the Dodgers 'Seal of Approval', is it reasonable for us to project upward Ryu's rate stats too?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Or they figure they'll just get what they can from him before he breaks again and then have a spot for Urias when that happens.
Brian
12:16
The Jose Ramirez extension is great, but it made me think about a Lindor extension enough to make me realize it will probably not happen and he will be gone eventually. Should I just enjoy the ride for the next 5 years?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Unless he just doesn't want to sign a long-term deal, they should be able to get him signed.
They have enough long-term control at bargain prices that they can afford to give him something closer to market price.
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