Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Wednesday everyone.
Most teams have played seven games at this point, so let's speculate wildly about what those seven games mean, and overreact emotionally to every outcome.
As is April tradition.
The Decadent Moose
12:02
As a Cardinals' fan, what is my first priority: 1] Getting a refund from MLB.TV, 2] starting scurrilous rumors about players in the bullpen, or 3] simply buying http://www.FireMikeMatheny.com/ ?
Dave Cameron
12:02
No better place to start than this.
The Cardinals first week was pretty lousy, but it's hard to imagine Cecil/Oh/Siegrist are going to combine for a 98.50 ERA or whatever they have right now.
They do need to stop playing Matt Adams in LF, though.
biased white sox fan
12:03
when do you think we'll see the first "major" trade? before/after July 1st?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Probably depends on how quickly Jose Quintana bounces back from his disaster Opening Day start. If he can get back on track quickly, I bet Chicago doesn't wait to July to move him. Especially if they're afraid Texas might fall out and trade Darvish, which would make Quintana a second fiddle.
J
12:04
Batter hits a weak grounder the other way to beat the shift. Do you care about the hit probability on it or decide to give him extra credit for something he doesn't always do?
Dave Cameron
12:04
The shift makes everything challenging. In reality, a ball hit to an empty third base area against the shift should have a very high hit probability, no matter how hard it's hit.
The Average Sports Fan
12:04
The Reds are obviously not really any good. But their bullpen usage has taken something that was awful, and made it not bad. Are you impressed?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Lorenzen and Iglesias are both very good relievers. Having them pitching multiple innings helps a lot. I don't know that they can lean on them to this extent all year long, though.
Joe Blow
12:05
Mitch Haniger is a beast. Disprove.
Dave Cameron
12:06
It's still early, but he's showing why some of us were optimistic about him.
D
12:06
Do you have any clue why the projection systems are so high on Anthony Toles? It's fascinating, on sabersim on Saturday, he was projected as the best offensive player in baseball(in coors but still better than all the other dodgers and Rockies)
Dave Cameron
12:06
That sounds like a bug.
Yordano
12:06
Whats higher? Michael Nelson Trout's OBP or the Reds winning %?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Well the Reds are off to a 6-2 start, and they're not a completely awful team like SD, so probably the Reds OBP.
YKnotDisco?!
12:07
How come the player page doesn't include the fan projections anymore?
Dave Cameron
12:07
We switched over to defaulting to rest-of-season projections today. You can still see the preseason projections by clicking the projections button.
Jason
12:08
What is Byron Buxtons ceiling at this point? What is his floor?And what do you see him settling into 3/4 years from now?
Dave Cameron
12:08
His ceiling hasn't changed. He's still a high risk, high reward guy.
12:09
Keep in mind that Jackie Bradley Jr has a not-totally-different skillset and Boston was pretty close to giving up on him a few years ago.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:09
Not sure who to ask, but MLB.TV rolled out the "Follow Your Team" feature to let fans of out-of-market teams watch their team's feed when they play in-market teams. There's a cruel and unusual restriction in that you can only use the web player on computers--do you know what part of the TV deals or other contracts is responsible for that?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Cable companies don't want you cutting the cord. They don't see watching it on your computer as a threat to the mass market audience like just watching it through a streaming box on TV.
Yordano
12:10
Odds two players reach the 9 WAR mark?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I'd say 25%. I wouldn't be shocked if Kershaw or Thor got there this year.
Jack
12:10
What do you think of the Ranger's slow start?
Dave Cameron
12:10
It's mostly Sam Dyson's slow start.
But he's clearly not right.
Eric
12:10
Is there anything in the CBA that would prevent a team from signing Shohei Otani to the restricted IFA bonus pool, and tear up the contract 6 months later with a new $150+ MM deal?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Yes. The CBA explicitly says you can't enter into an agreement to circumvent the international signing bonus rules.
12:11
But no one really knows how long is long enough to make it clear that it wasn't a pre-existing agreement. I wrote about that here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-other-shohei-otani-problem/
Noah
12:12
Is there any way to fight the TTO trend?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I think the significant increases in velocity make taming the strikeout issue challenging, so unless they're going to lower the mound or something, I'm not sure.
Mike
12:13
How do the advanced defensive stats work for first basemen? Are they mainly evaluating range, etc, as they would at other positions...or does skill at handling throws in the dirt and preventing errors by other infielders play a substantial role? How substantial?
Dave Cameron
12:14
But the difference in scooping skill between big league first baseman is pretty small, so the impact it has on UZR/DRS is not that large. It's mostly range.
Cam'ron
12:14
At this point in the season, is there any team that's surprising enough to change preseason projections?
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