Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:16
Sure, because the results of 7-8 games can change a team's expected W-L record by a handful of wins. The Blue Jays have dropped from 86 expected wins to 83 expected wins, for instance. They still have a shot at contending, but if they don't get out of this funk soon, they'll have to at least consider whether they need to start putting plans in place in case they have to sell.
Noah
12:16
Which current AL division leader (BAL/TB, DET, LAA) is most likely to make the playoffs?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Detroit
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:17
Mallex Smith is an absolute joy to watch. With his offensive profile, will he ever be more than a fourth outfielder?
Dave Cameron
12:17
The upside is Michael Bourn, who was a very good player for a while.
Erik
12:18
The Twins are doing well even with Buxton looking terrible. They were also an 83-win team just two years ago. Is it possible the projections were underrating them a bit, and they belong near the back of the very large AL wild card pack, rather than down near the White Sox?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Anything is possible, but there's no real reason to think the projections were underrating them based on going 5-2 in seven games. They have a 102 wRC+, so it's not like their offense has gone bananas in week one. The pitching is still bad.
Ryan
12:19
Dave, You are a douche. Thanks!
Dave Cameron
12:19
You're welcome?
Guest
12:20
Do you think the Giants stand pat in left/center? I know it's early but things are looking pretty bad.
Dave Cameron
12:20
You have to wonder at what point Angel Pagan and the Giants just decide it's time for a reunion.
John
12:20
You think if the adjustments come earlier in their career, we're discussing HOF cases for Murphy and Donaldson?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Donaldson, definitely. His peak is HOF worthy. He just won't have enough longevity. Murphy is tougher because we're on year two of him being a great player.
JTT
12:21
Why can't MLB teams trade draft picks? I understand why teams wouldn't WANT to, the MLB draft is a major crapshoot and you are theoretically trading "known" assets in prospects/young players for even higher risk lottery tickets, but why are teams specifically forbidden from trading them?
Dave Cameron
12:22
The league doesn't want to give players the ability to dictate where they'll play and not play, and trading picks opens things up to a guy like Harper or Strasburg or whoever saying "I won't play for Washington. You should trade the pick because I won't sign with you."
Without pick trading, the player doesn't have any hope of signing with another team, so it's sign or go to school.
Argo
12:23
Do you think Haniger's swing-and-miss tendencies are destined to catch up with him, or are you sensing this could be a genuine breakout? He's an enigma to me.
Dave Cameron
12:23
He's making contact on 80% of swings this year, was at 78% in his debut last year. His swing-and-miss tendencies have been oversold.
YKnotDisco?!
12:24
If Buxton has peak years similar to B.J Upton, would people still view that as a disappointment? Were the expectations higher than that? B.J was pretty damn good early in his career.
Dave Cameron
12:24
The early-career Trout comparisons set insane expectations. If he can become an average hitter with elite D, that's a good player.
Guest
12:24
I realize this is probably stupid to focus on, but what was the person who wrote the cubs depth chart smoking when they put Javy as the most likely to DH? I love Baez, but unless the cubs were trying to tank or it's spring training, I can't imagine the reasoning behind making the defensive wunderkind (and offensive liability) DH. That'd be nuts, even for Maddon.
Dave Cameron
12:25
The DH spot in the NL is a stand in for pinch hitting spots.
Hendrik
12:25
Since a high strikeout rate is often mentioned as something that is tough to overcome for hitters... How is this reflected in WAR? Do hitters get penalised more for striking out than making outs in another way or is it just that a hitter gets on base less with fewer balls in play?
Dave Cameron
12:26
WAR is a backwards-looking value stat, not a predictor of future performance. In batting WAR, a strikeout is an out, no different than any other out. If we were trying to project a player's future performance, we'd use a forecasting system, not WAR.
biffyclyro
12:27
I know Cubs fan expectations for Schwarber have been ridiculous and you've been skeptical, to say the least. Asking as a non-Cubs fanboy, what kind of season/numbers/abilities would you need to see from him before you start to buy in?
Dave Cameron
12:28
I'd probably need to see his contact rate improve. The main disagreement between my expectations (left-handed Napoli) and the hype is how much he'll strike out.
Maddux in a Row
12:28
In terms of pure speed, how far above the rest of humans is the average baseball player? Put another way, if I'm a moderately in shape adult and I managed to become a MLB team's go-to pinch runner and made 100 steal attempts, what would my success rate be?
Dave Cameron
12:28
I doubt you could get even one.
Unless the catcher airmailed a throw or something.
12:29
It's not just pure speed; it's reaction time, running technique, how to slide.
Sonny
12:29
Do players on the MLB 10-Day DL accrue service time while they're out?
Dave Cameron
12:29
Yep. Anyone on the active 25 man roster, including the 10 day DL or 60 day DL, is accruing service time.
YKnotDisco?!
12:30
What was the extent of your baseball playing career?
Dave Cameron
12:30
I played through high school. I was a C/3B with a good eye and no power. Basically, I was Ryan Hanigan.
Bookie Metts
12:31
Hey Dave - in your view, what's the biggest story so far, 1 week into the season?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Probably the Blue Jays slow start.
With an old roster, they can't really afford to just play out the year and see what happens. They'll have a buy or sell decision this summer. Holding is not an option.
JD
12:32
If Jays fall out of it and did not feel JD was going to be an easy sign would be command a huge return?
Dave Cameron
12:32
I doubt he's a mid-season trade. If they end up as sellers, they'll move the rentals, then figure out how extensive the rebuild will be this winter. If they decide they need a down cycle, then JD could be on the blocks next winter.
TJH
12:34
how do i view pitcher batting stat leaders? Total HR, RBI, average, etc.
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