Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
1:01
No.
Snarfle
1:01
A friend asked me about the new IBB rule, and I said to imagine if this is how it had always been, and they proposed changing it to make the pitcher throw four balls. Would you say, "finally! It's how it should have been all along!"
Dave Cameron
1:01
Right. There is no value added in having to actually watch the IBB occur.
CubFan
1:02
If CWS trade both Jones and Robertson then who the heck closes.....or do they even care since they're rebuilding?
Dave Cameron
1:02
You don't care about saves in a rebuilding year.
Jono
1:03
28 years ago today Kevin Mitchell made a barehanded catch- what's the big deal with that catch? Fans make barehanded catches in the stands every day.
Dave Cameron
1:03
Not on the run.
#BantheWave
1:04
"It'd be surprising if [Heyward] didn't bounce back?" You didn't have the guts to say this before! These kind of responses are why you come off like a jerk
Dave Cameron
1:05
Feel free to google my name and Jason Heyward. I've consistently argued that his track record suggests that last year was the aberration.
Monsignor Martinez
1:06
I think the consensus on Thames has a bit of realism to it; most teams are going to offer less than the highest bidder.
Dave Cameron
1:06
Sure. But there were twice as many people saying he's worth $5-$10M per year, which is basically indefensible, as saying he's worth $20-$25M per year, which is probably the right range.
Mike Trout of Eating
1:07
Hello! I was interesting in look at previous years Steamer projections for a school project, but I struggled to find them anywhere online. Do you know where/if I would be able to find them? Thank you!
Dave Cameron
1:07
Hit up Jared Cross. He can provide them for you.
He's @steamerpro on Twitter, or his contact info is on steamerprojections.com
Lane
1:08
Any chance Batted Ball Data will be available on the minor league leaderboards. Good stuff there
Dave Cameron
1:08
Yes, that's coming soon.
Robin
1:08
Do you have a good argument why MLBtv won't let you stream local games? Every argument I've seen really doesn't hold much water
Dave Cameron
1:09
Cable companies paid MLB teams huge amounts of money to force you to buy cable to watch local baseball.
That's the answer.
Josh
1:11
Jeff says he's intentionally dumb about hockey to maximize his pure enjoyment of the sport from a fan's perspective. Do you do this with any other sports, or does your analytical way of thinking prevent this from happening?
Dave Cameron
1:11
I don't really watch much in the way of other sports.
Kevin
1:13
I don't know what gambler's fallacy means?
Mike
1:13
You occasionally point out that someone is ignoring regression or is guilty of the gambler's fallacy. What errors do people make in thinking about baseball that they also make in thinking about (say) politics or health?
Dave Cameron
1:14
Confirmation bias is the main one. it's pervasive. Almost everyone gives in to believing that data that supports their pre-existing belief is real, and ignoring data that goes against it.
Kevin
1:14
Sorry, hit that too fast. Are you saying that rather than thinking a coin will be 50 heads and 50 tails over 100 flips no matter what happens....that instead I should now assume 8 heads and 2 tails do not affect the next 90 coin flips? So, I can now expect 53 heads and 47 tails in 100?
Dave Cameron
1:14
Exactly.
1:15
Take it to its logical extreme; if you flipped heads 50 times in a row, would you then expect 50 straight tails to balance things out? No, you'd be like "who gave me a weighted coin?"
Mike Trout of Eating
1:15
do you have any suggestions for programmers/data scientists who want to get into baseball but are not really interested in being a writer first? Is it even possible without knowing anyone in baseball?
Dave Cameron
1:16
If you want to work for a team, build something that they could use. Whip up a model that predicts something about a player's future based on some data set. Show them that you can code.
Matt
1:17
Your poll options are loaded and biased. "Fair" is a mediocre "yes" response, and "LOL" is an exaggerated "no" response.
Dave Cameron
1:17
Well, to be fair, the poll was already biased by my answer.
Tim
1:19
wait a sec. Profar just turned 24, has never had the chance to play full time and we're calling him a bust/no-trade value guy? I don't think many would honestly agree with that assessment.
Dave Cameron
1:20
He has a 73 wRC+ in almost 700 big league PAs, can't stay healthy, and is already arb-eligible. Even if he broke out, he'd be an FA not long after. There's no real reason to give up anything for him.
Nolan
1:21
I think the comment above re: Yankees/Trout trade is less about the trade being fair and more about asking you to ditch the obvious and flagrant hyperbole. The Angels wouldn't loan Trout to the Yankees for a week in exchange for 4 top 50 prospects?
Dave Cameron
1:21
The whole point of hyperbole is to make it obvious that it isn't a serious comment.
Tim
1:21
Dave, looking to go to the Northern Oregon Coast this summer with family. Thoughts on Seaside vs. Manzanita vs. Astoria.
Dave Cameron
1:22
I grew up going to Seaside as a kid. I haven't been there in 25+ years, but I liked it when I was 7.
Franklin
1:23
FAKE MIKE TROUT TRADE: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias for Mike Trout.
Dave Cameron
1:23
That's something the Angels would actually have to consider.
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