Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:03
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
12:04
Sorry for the delayed start; had a toddler meltdown to help with.
David
12:04
Will Chris Taylor turn into a pumpkin or is this a Justin Turner-esque resurgence?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Those aren't really the only two options. Taylor projected as a roughly league average player heading into the season, so it's not that weird that he's had a good 50 at-bats. I don't think he's going to turn into an offensive star, but he's a good defensive middle infielder who isn't a terrible hitter.
Erik
12:06
The Phillies' rotation was supposed to be their strength, but even the pitchers doing well by ERA like Hellickson have awful underlying numbers. What do you make of them going forward? Are they still the average unit they were projected to be at the start of the year?
Dave Cameron
12:07
A healthy Nola would help, but Velasquez isn't doing anything to push back against the idea that he's a long-term reliever.
At this point, I'd be more encouraged about the Phillies hitters. Altherr looks good, Hoskins is crushing Triple-A, Hernandez and Herrera look solid.
12:08
I still don't love Franco, but they are starting to put together a line-up.
Ryan
12:08
Realistically, which starter should the cubs go after and what do you think it would take to get him.
Dave Cameron
12:09
Darvish is the easy answer, but I could see them paying a lot less to get an Estrada or Vargas, given that they might not need whoever they acquire to be a frontline starter in the postseason if Lester and Arrieta are throwing well.
If Arrieta implodes, and they don't trust him in October, Darvish is more likely.
Jacob
12:10
What's a good comparable for a potential Estrada trade?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Maybe the Kazmir trade from a few years back.
007
12:10
How frequently do Zips, Steamer, etc update their ROS projections? I'm interested in Conforto vs. Judge ROS--but given how much has changed in past week, how up to date are those projections? (and who do you like ROS)
Dave Cameron
12:10
They're updated every day.
12:11
So the ROS projections you see on the site today include yesterday's games.
Kevin
12:11
Any reason why the Dodgers aren't letting Wood pitch deeper into games?
Dave Cameron
12:11
They don't really need to. They're carrying nine relievers.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:12
In practice, does actual run production depend on how teams achieve their aggregate wRC+ (or equivalent metric), or just what the aggregate is? I.e., will a team of 110 wRC+ three outcome guys really score as many runs as nine Royals-esque slap hitters with the same wRC+, even if the former may struggle with situations like man on third, one out?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Yeah, there's basically no real evidence that contact-oriented teams will outperform their linear weights expectations.
It doesn't really matter how you get to your wRC+
Bork
12:13
So uh...Iwakuma on the DL.
Dave Cameron
12:13
A win now team now has Yovani Gallardo as their #1 starter.
Brad
12:14
What are your thoughts on Aaron Altherr? I'm seeing comparisons to Werth. Would the Phillies be silly to give Kendrick or Saunders more playing time than him? Thanks.
Dave Cameron
12:15
Besides both playing in Philly, he doesn't really remind me much of Werth at all. But he definitely should be playing almost everyday.
Eric
12:15
For years, Mark Reynolds had power but could not hit for average. Last year, after moving to Coors, he finally hit for average, but no longer hit for power. Finally, this year, he is hitting for both average and power. Is Mark Reynolds somehow good now?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I don't think 44% of his fly balls will keep flying over the fence, so no.
But he's okay-ish.
Erik
12:16
The Reds and Brewers are both over .500, and seem to have some legitimate, unexpected improvements. Are they ready to contend as early as next year, or are they still years off?
Dave Cameron
12:16
The Reds rotation remains awful.
The Brewers isn't a lot better.
Pine Marten
12:17
With the Cubs struggling as they are and the improvement of several mid-tier teams in the NL, do you see a scenario in which the Cubs are fighting fora Wild Card spot in September (or miss the playoffs?)
Dave Cameron
12:17
The Cubs will be fine.
Noah
12:17
How sustainable is a breakout like Alonso's, when it comes with a change of approach? Do you see a pitcher adjustment that could mitigate his newfound power?
Dave Cameron
12:18
This isn't sustainable in the sense that he won't hit 70 home runs, but clearly, he's doing things quite differently now. It will be interesting to see how he responds to getting pitched around a bit more, but I think he's probably a legitimately good hitter now.
Zonk
12:18
What should the Cubs be worrying about, and in what areas will they be fine, in your opinion?
Dave Cameron
12:18
The 5th starter problem is legitimate and needs to be addressed. The offense will be fine.
Colinbaseball
12:19
What are your thoughts on Ben Lindbergh's piece on baseball's not being juiced? Are you convinced MLB is giving us the whole truth?
Dave Cameron
12:20
I don't see any reason for MLB to manufacture a fake report; the PR nightmare from something like that getting out would be way worse than the PR nightmare of just saying "yeah, we tightened up the balls because offense was too low". So, I believe that they are being honest with what they know.
Pine Marten
12:20
Yonder Alonso, Eric Thames, Mark Reynolds, who put the magic dust on all the first base bags?
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