Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:00
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
We're nearly two months into what is turning out to be a pretty interesting season.
12:01
So let's talk about it.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:01
Chris Archer is on a team-friendly contract and central to a Rays team that would like to be competitive over the next few years. He is also second in the AL in WAR behind Sale. I see a lot of Cubs et al. fans talk about trading for Archer, but do you actually see anyone paying the price the Rays would demand to move their competitive window back? Quintana's gotta go somewhere, and that's a nifty consolation prize.
Dave Cameron
12:02
No, I don't think the Rays trade Archer unless they fall apart in the next month. The Red Sox early struggles have made the AL East pretty winnable, and I'd imagine the Rays aren't going to punt their next few years unless things go south.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:02
You have suggested that teams may have better data models than other analysts which may cause them to evaluate players differently. Have you talked to August Fagerstrom about lines of research the amateur community could pursue to be more in-line with team research (without divulging proprietary data, of course)?
Dave Cameron
12:02
No, August's boss, I haven't asked him to say anything that would get him fired. Thanks for asking, though!
12:03
In terms of lines of research, I don't think there are actually that many areas where teams are looking for something that the public isn't, where the public could. Most of that kind of stuff is related to mental skills, vision, etc..., and we're just never going to have access to players to get that kind of information.
Daniel
12:04
Is Kershaw back?? That 8th inning last night was masterful
Dave Cameron
12:04
I didn't know he went anywhere.
Erik
12:04
The Twins' playoff odds have inched up to 15%, which is still quite low for a team playing so well that has some legitimate young talent. Would you take the over on that 15%, or does that number feel right to you?
Dave Cameron
12:04
If anything, I'd take the under.
12:05
Sano is a really good hitter. Buxton can play center field really well. But this isn't a playoff team unless they get really, really lucky.
Erik
12:05
According to the playoff odds, the NL Wild Card is a three team race between the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals. Who will be the odd one out?
Dave Cameron
12:06
The Rockies success is based heavily on their bullpen dominance to date, and that's the kind of thing that can turn in a hurry.
Big Tuna
12:06
Does the Sam Travis call up suggest Moreland might be a platoon 1B now?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Plan was always for him to be a platoon guy, but Hanley can't play 1B right now, so he played everyday for a while.
Paulie Walnuts
12:07
I think we still need to wait for another period of adjustment-readjustment before we can declare anything, but do you think Judge will be considered a top-15 position player by the end of the season?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Top 15? That's tough, because there are so many good young players. Obviously you have the top tier of Trout, Harper, Machado, Lindor, Bryant, Correa, Donaldson, Betts, Posey, and Seager, and Judge isn't going to pass any of those guys. So is he going to break into the Votto/Rizzo/Arenado/Goldschmidt/Rizzo group? I doubt it.
Top 25, maybe? I like Judge. But top 15 is tough.
Paulie Walnuts
12:10
If Headley's June looks like Headley's May, will we see Gleyber in July?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Headley is a perfectly useful big leaguer on a first place team. That's not a recipe for benching a guy to play a 20 year old out of position.
JD15
12:11
What do you expect a team like the Twins to do at the deadline? Yesterday you mentioned the D-back possibly regretting not dealing Greinke while he is pitching like his contract suggests. Seems similar to Ervin Santana situation.
Dave Cameron
12:11
Well, Ervin's contract is significantly smaller, so there's less downside to keeping him. But yeah, I think the Twins will fade enough to move him this summer.
Ken
12:12
Who do you think finishes this season with the most MLB plate appearances out of Barreto, G. Torres & Devers?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Devers. The Red Sox 3Bs are much worse than NYY's middle infielders, and Barreto probably doesn't get to OAK until after they trade Lowrie.
DTH
12:13
Hey Dave, any thoughts on Ian Happ's CF play so far? If he's actually passable out there, it really changes the calculus for the Cubs on guys like Almora and Baez moving forward.
Dave Cameron
12:14
I haven't seen him play CF, but I can't think of any fringe-defensive 2Bs who successfully moved to CF. Usually the MI to OF conversion guys are good athletes with error problems. Feels like Happ is probably more likely to end up as a corner OF.
spookie
12:14
Are the Red Sox underperforming or is the situation starting to look legitimately bleak? That farm system is shockingly shallow after Devers.
Dave Cameron
12:15
They'll be fine once they get Price healthy.
The Average Sports Fan
12:16
Will the Royals be big sellers, or will the return on guys like Moustakas and Hosmer be so disappointing it won't be worth it?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I wouldn't be surprised if they kept both of those guys and just made them a QO.
Cain will get traded, because he's actually good, so other teams will want him.
JD15
12:17
Does Ian Happ change how the Cubs go into trade season? Initially I thought he would be big trade bait, but does his performance make it possible that they deal Schwarber or Baez?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Don't think Happ and Baez have as much overlap as people think, since Happ can't play short. And trading Schwarber is tough because they'd either be admitting they are selling low, or if he heats back up, trading a guy on an upswing.
Something I haven't seen mentioned, but could be possible: trade Russell instead.
12:19
The idea of Addison Russell is still bigger than the reality of Addison Russell, and he'd probably bring back a big return even with his current struggles.
Chris
12:19
The Mariners look to be in a tough spot for the next couple years. What's the likely plan of action? What's the best one? Do they wait until the non-Cano/Seager contracts fall off (Cruz, Felix, etc), then start trading whatever's left for whatever they can?
Dave Cameron
12:20
Just keep hoping for the best until the crash forces them to pivot.
12:21
It's coming. The question is just when.
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