Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Well, looks like Wordpress decided not to post the chat this morning.
12:02
Once I get that fixed and get the post up, I'll give you guys a little bit of time to get some questions into the queue, and then we'll begin a bit late today.
12:30
Alright, sorry for the delay this week everyone.
12:31
We're working on getting the back-end weirdness resolved.
But let's chat baseball for the next hour or so.
Grant
12:31
What do you think Jean Segura would've gotten on the open market?
Dave Cameron
12:33
I put up a post on his extension (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jean-segura-and-the-mariners-are-bettin...), but it depends entirely on how much of this BABIP surge he could have sustained. As an okay defensive SS heading towards 30, his big pitch in FA is that he could really hit, though the track record on that is spotty. If he were an FA today, I'd think maybe 5/$75M, something like that. If he kept hitting for the next 18 months, 6/$100M maybe.
There's definitely some potential for this to be a bargain if Segura keeps his average up, but there's also plenty of risk if the BABIP falls and he looks like an okay hitter instead.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:34
Any thoughts on the Derek Norris situation?
Dave Cameron
12:35
We don't know enough to have strong opinions at this point.
If the allegations prove true, then he's probably done in MLB.
Or at least, he should be.
LegallyEagle
12:36
Any chance MLB will weigh in regarding foreign language speaking baseball players? It's a regrettable to still have to hear comments like Remy's and Schmidt's.
Dave Cameron
12:37
The broadcast booth is one area where the game hasn't changed a lot yet. I would imagine this will change, and networks and organizations will both be more sensitive to hiring people who don't say insanely stupid things into a microphone.
A great way to help cut down on comments like this would be to hire from outside the pool of "former MLB player" exclusively.
Big Tuna
12:38
You think Newcomb is up to stay in ATL? What do you expect of him?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Reminds me of a left-handed Tyler Glasnow. Strikeouts are nice, but you have to be able to get ahead of hitters in the big leagues.
If he can throw strikes, there's obvious upside. But I'm generally skeptical of these guys.
Big Tuna
12:39
Giles had another rough outing in HOU. With them contending, how long is his leash? Harris was good in that role last year.
Dave Cameron
12:39
Giles is fine. The last thing the Astros need is another reliever. That bullpen is excellent.
Frankie
12:40
Dave, your "Hot Take" on the Segura signing, please?
Dave Cameron
12:40
He's better than I gave him credit for when Arizona acquired him. He's not as good as his numbers since.
Guest
12:40
Are you worried about Jacob Degrom?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Well he's a Mets pitcher, so I assume he probably has the plague or something.
12:41
But while the ERA is bad, it's all BABIP and HR/FB. Strikeouts are up, velo is fine. Probably just missing his spots right now.
Terry Collins' Pen
12:42
What kind of contract do you feel Lucas Duda will be able to get on the open market this year? If you're Sandy Alderson, do you trade him at the deadline, look to sign him, or just let him walk and hand the reigns over to Dominic Smith?
Dave Cameron
12:43
He'll be selling his age 32-3x seasons, has a long history of back problems, and has played 150 games in a season exactly once. The market wasn't kind to these guys last winter. Maybe he gets 2/$20M?
Matt
12:44
Joey Gallo is sticking with the big league team this entire season at this point, right?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Yeah, no reason to send him down to play their alternatives.
Sam
12:44
Please talk me down from this ledge regarding Tanaka. Time to put him on the DL with a phantom injury?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Still missing bats, so there's hope. But yeah, probably give him a start off from throwing BP at this point.
Erbin Lejind
12:46
Alright, no reason to beat around the bush, is the ball juiced or are we just in a real lowpoint for pitching... or both? Pitching, with few exceptions seems to be having a rough year all around the league. The idea that the league needs to "fix" the lack of offense seems laughable now.
Dave Cameron
12:47
League wOBA is .318, same as it was last year, and only a little above the bottomed-out levels of 2014. This is still well below normal levels of offense from the last ~30 years. HRs are way up, but so are Ks, so overall offense isn't going nuts. It's just a very different type of game now.
Joe Douglas
12:48
Happy Wednesday, Dave. Do teams run into potential issues with using statcast data on potential draft picks? Certainly it's better to have the data than not. Take spin rate for example. My understanding is that teams only have it for a portion of the draftable population. Is there potential that teams run into issues of over-committing to players with more data available, while ignoring similarly good players who just don't play in parks that have trackman installed?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Hi Joe. Generally, the Trackman parks at the amateur levels are at showcase events, so I'm not sure the issue is that different from pre-Trackman days. There was always a question of whether the showcase circuit guys were being over evaluated relative to kids in the northeast who scouts couldn't see as often.
LambChop85
12:50
Can I get excited about Robbie Ray now?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Yes.
Matt
12:50
Two years ago, I was getting really annoyed watching national broadcasts of the Cubs and the way Analysts would slob all over Schwarber. I'm currently getting the same feelings about Judge - and I'm a Yankee fan.
Dave Cameron
12:51
Any good NY player is going to get overexposed. It's just part of the deal. But Aaron Judge is good, and has a significantly better future than Schwarber.
Mo Vaughn
12:51
In 1324 career PA, Addison Russell has an 89 wRC+ and .305 wOBA. Going forward, is he a below-average offensive player, or do you expect that he'll end up average or slightly better?
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