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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Skuggs
12:37
One of my gripes with the way that some people use Steamer/projections is that they use it with equal force to say "X Player who has 5,000 MLB PAs is projected for Y" and "X Player who has never seen an MLB pitch is projected for Z". Has there been work done on Steamer/projections' accuracy with respect to minor leaguers compared with veterans?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Any forecast is going to have wider variance with less data, so projections are inherently less accurate for young players. That said, baselining off the projections is still a lot better than people's confirmation-bias-enthusiasm.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:39
You have suggested that you do not care about Carson's lawn projects in the least. On a 20-80 scale, how much do you *actually* care about Carson's landscaping issues and how they relate to baseball?
Dave Cameron
12:39
15
Chaps
12:39
re. Astros on Quintana: Quintana's gotten significantly worse (unless his underlying stats say otherwise; haven't had the chance to look at them), and Lunhow's said he wants a left-handed reliever. Would it make more sense for them to try and trade for Cole & Watson, or is that price way too steep?
Dave Cameron
12:39
If you're backing away from Quintana because of 2017 performance, you shouldn't be interested in Watson.
Tim
12:40
Re: Astros Blockbuster--are the Astros confident enough in Marwin Gonzalez as a 3B option that Bregman could be a potential chip in such a deal?
Dave Cameron
12:40
I doubt it.
OH GOD MY PITCHING IT HURTS
12:41
Derek Fisher was called up. Any chance he can stick for the Astros this year? Is Aoki done?
Dave Cameron
12:41
He could stick if he gets hot. Beltran isn't looking so spry either. Everyone talks about HOU's pitching but their offense is a bat or two short.
Nate
12:42
rank the value of Darvich (pending FA), Gray, and Quintana for trade purposes, please
Dave Cameron
12:42
Gray/Quintana close, maybe slight edge to Gray right now. Big gap between them and Darvish.
Justin Verlander
12:42
Will I finish the year with the Tigers?
Dave Cameron
12:43
Not pitching very well and you're super expensive. Unless Tigers decide to dump everyone, don't see you moving.
Anon
12:43
What about Cueto? No one seems to be mentioning his name but the Giants should definitely be selling now at 26-40.
Dave Cameron
12:44
I do think he gets traded, but return will be less than SFG would hope, given the opt-out.
Lots of risk for a team there.
Jimbo McGee
12:44
What limiting factors keep baseball teams from tanking as hard as basketball teams?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Draft picks aren't worth nearly as much in MLB as they are in the NBA.
ATCQ
12:45
Could Darvish be available for a package with a back-end top-100 prospect as the headliner? Or will there need to be a top-50 type guy?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Yeah, if Darvish is on the block, not getting him at a discount.
12:46
Rangers would probably ask for something like the Chapman package from last summer.
Jon
12:46
Could a team negotiate something with SF regarding Cueto?Like if he suffers an injury and opts in there will be a PTBNL.
Dave Cameron
12:47
Sure, but SF isn't going to be super motivated to agree to give up something super valuable if Cueto gets hurt while out of their control.
Sean
12:47
The projections have the Rockies and Dbacks as ~.500 teams RoS. Are you buying the over?
Dave Cameron
12:47
There's a bunch of regression coming for both teams. I actually like AZ more than COL right now, actually.
Anon
12:48
Even if Cueto opts in, 4/84 isn't outrageous, is it?
Dave Cameron
12:48
If he opts in, it's probably because he got hurt.
And then you're paying for rehab.
Booger
12:50
If Darvish is available, but costs the same as Chapman did last year, do you really see the Cubs spending huge for a rental again? I can see them paying the price for a cost controlled starter, but not another rental.
Dave Cameron
12:50
They still have more hitters than spots to play them.
And as Hoyer said recently, you only get so many shots at a WS title.
Anon
12:50
Is there any merit to a team signing a free agent they don't need to a market rate contract, then trading him and paying most of his salary in exchange for prospects. Kinda like what the Yankees did with trading Brian McCann last offseason.
Dave Cameron
12:51
Can't really do sign-and-trades in MLB.
Can do sign, hold for a while, and trade six months later, but that's risky.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:51
Dave, we [the readers] appreciate these chats. But where do you stand on them? Are they an inconvenience [another Nick Markakis question?!] or do you ever glean anything interesting or worthwhile to possibly be written about later?
Dave Cameron
12:51
They're enjoyable, mostly. Good data gathering to find out what people want to talk about, so a lot of articles come out of chat questions.
Legeisc
12:52
For players like Cueto with right to opt out/in, I assume teams have insurance policies to mitigate the risk. Is this correct? I would assume a team acquiring Cueto could get a short-term insurance policy and have that factored into prospect cost.
Dave Cameron
12:52
Insurance policies on contracts are super expensive. Some teams get them, some don't.
And often guys with a history of arm problems (like Cueto) can't get blanket insurance. So you might be able to insure against him breaking his leg, but not him getting Tommy John.
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