Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:02
Happy Friday, everyone. Jeff and I switched days this week because he wanted to go climb something this weekend. I fully expect there to be 20 trades in the next 24 hours since he's gone.
Charles the Cat
12:02
If the Cubs are to get one more starter, who do you think they get?
Dave Cameron
12:04
The rumor of the morning put them on Darvish, but there are diminishing returns on adding another guy at that level. You're starting Lester/Quintana/Arrieta in the postseason, so if you pick up Darvish, one of those guys makes just one start in a seven game series.
12:05
So I'd think it would be more like an Estrada type, a guy who could potentially be a buy low and would give them depth if Hendricks has more problems, then could maybe be a reliever in October.
MK
12:06
With everyone focused on Nats bullpen issues, is adding a starter or left fielder the main priority now?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I don't think they need a starter. They basically have a playoff spot locked up, and Scherzer/Strasburg/Gio/Roark is fine for the postseason.
Marky Mark
12:06
What is the logic behind lineup protection not existing? I know the numbers don't bear it out but how does the logic work?
Dave Cameron
12:07
The theory is that hitters perform better because pitchers are scared of pitching to the guy on deck with a runner on base. But if hitters actually performed better, than pitchers would be pitching to the on-deck batter with a man on *more often*.
So pitchers aren't going to pitch in a way that creates the result they are trying to avoid.
Dookie Howser, MD
12:08
What kind of return are the Braves looking at for Jaime if (a) acquiring club takes on his full contract or (b) if Braves kick in significant cash
Dave Cameron
12:08
If someone takes the whole $4.5M, I doubt they get anything real in return. If they pay down all of it, maybe they get a decent 45 FV guy.
MC
12:09
Are the Dodgers the best fit for Darvish, given that their top three starters are left-handed?
Dave Cameron
12:10
The best fit for Darvish would be someone who needed to use him to get to the postseason. Paying the price he'd require just to get a few upgrade postseason starts isn't worth it.
The Yankees, for instance, could really use Darvish.
the sad song
12:11
There's been a lot of discussion about your use of KATOH and KATOH+ to determine which prospects are "risky". But KATOH+ projects almost all prospects on BA's Top 100 list to be worth more than KATOH. So are you saying that the White Sox should have targeted players who weren't on BA's Top 100 list? With only a handful of exceptions, no one the White Sox could have targeted on BA's Top 100 list would satisfy you given the method you chose.
Dave Cameron
12:12
Jimenez, Rutherford, Moncada, and Giolito have four of the largest differences between their prospect ranking and what their actual performances suggest of any prospects in the majors. I'm suggesting that by targeting those three guys as the primary pieces in their four trades, they are betting that minor league performance doesn't matter that much.
12:13
If you think most of the prospects on BA's Top 100 have the divergence between their ranking and their performance that those guys have, you're just wrong.
DB
12:13
Why hasn't Ian Kinsler been mentioned in trade conversations?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Has a no-trade clause, hasn't shown much interest in waiving yet. Used it last year, I believe.
Dan
12:14
Darvish & Sonny Gray are names that have been linked in Cubs rumors.  I don't see how the Cubs pull either of those deals off without a top 50 prospect?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Yeah, the obvious trade chip that they still have is Candelario, who has no future in Chicago.
12:15
He doesn't get you either of those two.
Rb
12:15
What kind of return could rick Hahn get for Jose Abreu?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Not a good enough one to move him. Not a lot of teams looking for RH bat-only guys right now. See J.D. Martinez trade.
Ricky
12:16
Hey Dave - how much does a GM's ability to negotiate play into the trade market? Or are there so many cooks in the kitchen advising on trades for it not to matter?
Dave Cameron
12:17
It depends on what you think of as negotiating. No GM is going to sit there and talk another GM into making a bad trade based on the eloquence of his speech. But there's definitely a skill in anticipating what others might do, and being able to read the market. A GM who can tell when someone is willing to extend further or is serious about walking away can create real value.
Zihuatenejo
12:18
Any opinion on the Stanton/Yelich-to-Phillies rumor?  If the Marlins make that trade (or one substantially like it), is that the last straw for Loria?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Don't see it happening.
Feels like one of those things that got kicked around as a "should we call them and see if they're interested?" conversation.
Sean P
12:19
Say the Cubs wanted to trade for Verlander. How much of his contract would the Tigers have to pay down and what sort of prospects would the Cubs have to give up to make it work for both sides?
Dave Cameron
12:19
The prospects depend entirely on the cash in the deal. Without any cash, he's worthless; I think he's an August trade candidate because I'm pretty sure he'd clear waivers. So then it comes down to how much Detroit is willing to kick in to effectively buy prospects.
12:20
But the same deal here applies as Darvish; why take on that money or give up a real prospect just to get a marginally better #4 starter?
There's an argument that a healthy Hendricks is still better than Verlander, after all.
JV
12:20
What team is Yonder Alonso playing for on August 1st?
Dave Cameron
12:20
I'll go with the Yankees.
JV
12:21
What do you believe will be the biggest trade between now and the non-tender deadline?
Dave Cameron
12:21
I was pretty sure Cutch was going to move a month ago, but the Pirates have played him off the market.
So now it might be Gray.
Kosch
12:21
How is Aoki (-0.3 WAR, 81 wRC+) still on the MLB roster when Fisher is ready?  I am not saying Fisher > Trout or anything ridiculous, but he's gotta be an easy upgrade right...or am I just nuts?
Dave Cameron
12:21
ZIPS/Steamer project FIsher for an 89 wRC+ rest of season.
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