Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:05
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
12:07
Before we get to the chat, I wanted to note that I unfortunately won't be able to attend this weekends Saber Seminar or the Pitch Talks event in NYC on Monday as originally planned. My dad had a stroke last week, and I'm in Seattle helping out for a bit. Given the fact that Carson is also on paternity leave learning how to be a Dad and that a good chunk of our staff is traveling to Boston this week, I'll ask for a little more grace than usual this week if things aren't running at 100% on FG. We'll get back to normal soon enough.
12:08
I will really miss being at Saber Seminar, and hopefully if you were planning on saying hi this weekend, we can catch up in the not too distant future.
With that out of the way, let's talk some baseball for a little bit.
striker
12:08
Love Eric's rankings of prospects dealt during the trade deadline season. Based on that write up, looks like Hahn did really good with his returns for all of his deals so far. Would you give him an A so far? What, if anything, would you have done differently?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I think he got the best deal he probably could have in almost every trade he's made, maybe save the Frazier/Kahnle/Robertson swap. I do think the prospects he's acquired are generally more well regarded by fans than is justified by their value within the game, and he's bought a lot of of very high-risk prospects, so the White Sox failure rate might be higher than you'd expect from a farm system this good. But clearly, they have some pieces with very high upside as well, and if a few of their gambles pay off, they'll find some stars to build around.
AAR
12:11
Do you think the Tigers' impending rebuild will have any affect on Upton's opt-out decision?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Potentially. I'm not sure he can do a lot better than 4/$88M this winter, but if he thinks he can get 4/$80M from a contender, maybe that's worth it to him to not have to deal with asking for a trade and hoping the Tigers eat the $8M to move him?
Murdoc
12:11
Does Cody Allen need his role reevaluated?
Dave Cameron
12:12
He hasn't been good since April. Joe Smith might be the Indians second best reliever right now.
That said, Miller is more valuable in the non-closer role, so you probably keep Allen in the 9th inning spot and hope he's okay.
wowee
12:13
It seems almost everyone understands the trades that were made, even the JD Martinez one. But there seems to be a lot of disagreement over the return the A's got for Sonny Gray. How serious are the injuries to Fowler and Kaprielian, and how much does it affect their value around the game? Does everyone just think they're going to heal up and get on with developing, or did the A's get damaged goods?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Obviously the injuries affect their value, and Fowler's is particularly troublesome, given that it's not a common baseball injury.
But I like the package they got back. I think Fowler was wildly underrated before he got hurt, and he wouldn't have been available had he stayed healthy.
Bret
12:14
I know you've taken the side that the Jays should look to rebuild for a little while now. Does it follow, to you, that the Jays should be shopping Josh Donaldson this offseason? If so, should they go further and discuss guys like Stroman & Osuna? On the flip-side, does it look like there's enough there to try and take another run with Donaldson in 2018 with some effective offseason maneuvering?
Dave Cameron
12:14
I get the desire to want to keep building, but I have a hard time seeing the 2018 Blue Jays as a good team. They have a lot of holes, not a lot of money to spend, and not a lot of chips to trade. And it's not like Boston or New York should be expected to get worse next year.
12:15
I'd blow it up.
Mounds
12:15
Who will be the next player to hit 60 dongs?
Dave Cameron
12:15
I don't know how the answer is anyone but Aaron Judge.
Mike
12:15
Dave! Are we still thinking Sale is front runner for AL CY? Paxton makes a good case...
Dave Cameron
12:16
It's Sale's award to lose. He'll have to implode in September or something to not win it.
John
12:16
Did padres make mistake not trading Brad Hand if they were not receiving top 100 prospect in return?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Depends on what kind of non-top 100 prospects they were offered, and how many. But given the buyer's market at the deadline, I wouldn't be too hard on anyone who decided to hold, thinking the winter market might be just as strong.
Dodgers Win total
12:17
How many wins do the Dodgers finish with this season?
Dave Cameron
12:18
I'll guess 108. No real reason to push their guys down the stretch. Would imagine all the starters get a lot of days off in September.
Rasta
12:18
Which contenders have the biggest holes that you could see filled by pre-8/31 trades? Any players in particular that you could see clearing waivers and moving?
Dave Cameron
12:19
I bet Verlander gets moved this month. Maybe to Houston?
TJ
12:19
With as bad as production as BOS and NYY have gotten at 1b - why is Duda mashing for the Rays at the cost of a High A relief arm?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Headley isn't a zero, and they are talking that Bird might be back by the end of the month.
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
12:20
Can players be bought out? Example, the Tigers tell Upton they'll give him $20 million to opt out if his contract?
Dave Cameron
12:22
The union opposes players ever taking a reduced contract than what they are already owed, so Upton would have to show that he'd be better off with whatever the Tigers offer than he would be otherwise. If they offered him $20 million to opt out, he'd almost certainly come out ahead, but I'm pretty sure MLB wouldn't allow that kind of payment.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:22
Is the Brewers recent offensive malaise something that is explainable by day-to-day baseball randomness and/or arbitrary endpoint related SSS noise, or is there something more systemic happening? After being one of the better offenses in baseball most of the season, they've really looked bad lately.
Dave Cameron
12:22
You can only count on guys to overproduce for so long.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:23
Would you say there is any percentage (even a fraction of a percent) of the Hand non-trade that can be attributed to gun-shyness on the part of other teams' front offices with regards to dealing with AJ Preller and his track record of less than above-board dealings?
Dave Cameron
12:23
Probably not much.
TKDC
12:23
Are you surprised the Braves seemingly abandoned the Freddie Freeman: third baseman experiment so quickly? The incredibly SSS data say he's okay and the eye test says he looked a bit rigid and uncomfortable at times but definitely capable. Also, if you move him back to first and put Adams in the outfield, there is no way that is a net positive, right?
Dave Cameron
12:24
Yeah, it's kind of weird that they're trying Adams in left again, but maybe they realize that he's not a regular on a good team, so he'll just go back to being a bench guy when Kemp comes back.
Brent
12:24
Please show me the logic in sticking Matt Adams in LF. I know we have too many inf on the roster, but part of that is their own fault. They rushed S Rod back, who hasn't found his swing yet and/or still isn't 100%, and Albies did not have to be promoted. He's hit better since his ugly start but he wasn't dominating. What am I missing?
Dave Cameron
12:25
I don't know. I don't really get it either. Felt like Phillips could have been an August trade guy, so not sure why they had to bring Albies up before moving him.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:25
Trade deadline hot take peddlers tend to not be too friendly to teams who simply hold their cards at the trade deadline - what teams would you say made the right choice by staying either completely or mostly inactive?
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