Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Wednesday everyone.
Let's talk some baseball.
The Average Sports Fan
12:01
Last week you dismissed the Cardinals as a legit playoff contender.  The Cubs are still disappointing, and Cardinals are only 1.5 games back.  Sticking to your guns?
Dave Cameron
12:02
I didn't dismiss the Cardinals; I said their WC hopes probably leaned more on COL/AZ falling apart than hoping the Cubs keep struggling.
That remains true. The Cubs are a very good team. If you think they're going to suck for the next six weeks, you're probably going to be disappointed.
Ed in Iowa
12:03
Giancarlo Stanton is probably priced about right at 10yr/$285. There is not a lot of surplus value there, but the contract is no longer under water either. Do you agree with this assertion?
Dave Cameron
12:03
No.
The opt-out makes the deal overly risky relative to the reward.
John
12:03
Do you think theres any chance Jeets goes full Guggenheim this offseason?  Trade for Miggy/Fulmer, sign Darvish, other flashy moves?  It would be really fun
Dave Cameron
12:04
Doubtful. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to sign guys like Ozuna to a long term deal and were willing to overpay for the right to say "see, we're different"
The Ghost of Christmas Past
12:05
Are you a fan of the "bring the top prospect up and make him a reliever" strategy? I.E. Wainwright, Price, soon to be Buehler?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Yeah, given innings limits, it's a good way to leverage the early years of a good young pitcher on a contender.
Mike
12:06
What are the chances that Giancarlo actually gets moved this year? Who is the most likely suitor if you had to pick one?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I can't see any real way that Jeter's first big move as owner is to trade away the team's best player. They need to establish a new identity and trading Stanton won't do that.
Matt
12:07
Cubs are playing well , if not still a bit inconsistent. One longer-term issue that has been exposed is the OF. How would you balance the offensive and defensive needs out there with the current personnel? Would you look to reshuffle the OF deck a bit in the offseason?
Dave Cameron
12:07
I'd trade Schwarber, but I'd have traded Schwarber the last few years too, and they've kept resisting that idea.
Aaron Nola
12:08
Will I be the best pitcher on the next good Phillies team?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I'm not sure your arm will still be healthy when the Phillies are good again.
Devil Ray Romano
12:09
The Rays have fallen to below .500. I was content to blame Cash and the bullpen for the struggles this season, and while there are still problems on the pitching side, the position players (Ramos, Smith, Hechavarria, and a bit of Miller) have emerged as a bigger problem now. After the Beckham trade...should I be directing my disappointment at the front office?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I think the Hech/Beckham decision is easy to question, even without hindsight. But they've gotten more right than wrong, and I wouldn't crush them for one weird choice yet.
Gary
12:11
I'm really curious - how much has Tim Beckham's *career* outlook changed in the last two weeks? Have 15 outrageous games moved him from "utility guy" to "2-3 WAR major leaguer?"
Dave Cameron
12:11
He was at +2.5 WAR in ~800 PAs before he got to Baltimore. He was already a borderline Major League average player.
Phil
12:13
Apparently Adrian Gonzalez is ready to return to the Dodgers, and there isn't an obvious spot for him. With Pederson struggling, do you think they put Bellinger in LF, Taylor in CF and Gonzalez at 1st? Or maybe with Forsythe struggling, they put Taylor at 2nd and Bellinger in LF? Or do they just have him as a bat off the bench and a late inning replacement when they have large leads?
Dave Cameron
12:13
They are 50 games over .500. They don't really need a set lineup at this point. They can afford to rest everyone, and give lots of guys a few starts per week.
Kev
12:15
What contract does Hosmer get this offseason and who gives it to him? Especially considering the returns we saw for position players at the deadline.
Dave Cameron
12:15
Feels like one of those guys who hangs out on the market until January, and then Boras goes over the front offices head to convince ownership to give him $150 million. Maybe this is Jeter's first "big splash".
Dooduh
12:16
Who do you think claimed Estrada?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Probably the Mariners
Andrew
12:17
What is the likelihood that the Astros use starting pitcher "tandems" in October - e.g., the "starter" for Game 2 would be McCullers & Peacock, each scheduled to throw 3 innings? And McHugh/Morton the next game? Is this their best approach?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Very likely.
Lulio Jugo
12:17
So am I reading the WAR calculations correctly that if Chris Sale was replaced with a replacement level pitcher, the Red Sox would be expected to be 61-58 instead of 68-51?  That really puts into perspective how valuable a top player can be.
Dave Cameron
12:17
Essentially, yes, that's what WAR attempts to represent.
Steve
12:18
How many homers does Hoskins hit in 2018? You a believer?
Dave Cameron
12:18
I'd say 30+. Yes, I think he's going to be really good.
TKDC
12:18
What do you think the relative influence of fWAR and brWAR are for the voters that are even inclined to look at advanced metrics? As in, do you think fWAR is more or less influential, or about the same?
Dave Cameron
12:20
There's no question that B-R has more traffic than we do, and almost certainly is the site of record for more beat writers than FG. So I would imagine their WAR gets looked at more than ours does. But I would also imagine that most everyone who gets an award ballot these days takes it seriously enough to do research that includes looking on FG.
Paul
12:20
Can we talk 4 man outfield? I feel like it has been dismissed among casual fans because Votto doubled. Can't help but think that if he lined right to Bryant it would have been perceived very differently. With that in mind, what would it take for more managers to be willing to try it? Is one fleeting sample of success going to be enough to get people interested? I can't really recall how conventional shifts caught on. Thanks,
Dave Cameron
12:21
I'd bet we see it more with guys who are at the extreme FB end of things. No real reason to line up four infielders against someone who elevates 70% of the time.
John
12:22
You think the Phillies would be best served trading Nola?  I feel like the White Sox might be in a similar situation with Rodon.
Dave Cameron
12:22
I'd probably shop him this winter, yeah. Too much risk that he goes to zero before they get good again.
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