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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
Let's chat for an hour or so.
Nicky Delmonico
12:02
There's been a lot of hype and analysis of hot starting call ups on fangraphs lately... my name has made me a bit of a cult hero in Chicago. Do I have a chance of keeping this up and being a very good MLB hitter?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Travis Sawchik is writing about you on these pages very soon.
Free Clay Zavada
12:02
How high would Yoan Moncada's strikeout rate have to be in a full season next year for you to become very concerned about his status as a future star?
Dave Cameron
12:02
I'm already concerned.
12:03
The Byron Buxton comparisons are too easy to make, but they are also easy for a reason. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Moncada required a Buxton-style path that involved a trip back to the minors at some point. And unfortunately, Moncada doesn't have Buxton's defense to keep him in the lineup.
Keith Hernandez
12:04
How much of a step back did the Phillies rebuild take this year?  For example, you have a guy like Franco who was supposed to be a nice building block playing at below replacement level.
Dave Cameron
12:05
I don't think they took a step back. Altherr came out of nowhere and is a better piece than Franco ever as. Hoskins looks awesome. Crawford bounced back. Hernandez kept most of last year's gains.
Franco was always overrated. That he's not that good shouldn't be news.
Craig in CHI
12:06
What are your thoughts about Donaldson at SS?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Infield defense isn't as important as it used to be, so teams are pushing the envelope a bit. Rizzo, a left-hander, played third last night. Freeman played third for a month. The penalty for sacrificing IF defense isn't as large now that strikeouts and shifts are the name of the game.
Hannah Hochevar
12:07
Seems like everyone's in on the Buxton Byronaissance. Do you think he beats his ROS projections?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Everyone did this last year too.
12:08
Right now, he's still more Billy Hamilton than anything else. I'll remain reserved about his prospects for stardom until he sustains power or improves contact.
Bryan
12:08
You've mentioned that you don't think the Reds should offer Cozart a QO because he would accept it. Why do you think he isn't worth it?
Dave Cameron
12:10
How does spending $18 million on Cozart help the Reds? He's not part of their future. He isn't valued highly enough around the league to be a prime trade chip, even if they planned on eating a good chunk of that salary at the deadline. If the organization wants to spend $18 million on something next year, it should be on something that can still be valuable when they get good.
Travis
12:10
Will Kimbrel be a hall of famer?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Yeah, he's already one of the best relievers of all time.
Warrior
12:11
Dave, not to promote your competitor's work, but BP's playoff odds have the Red Sox as 77% to win the Division (compared to 22% for the Yankees), but the Yankees have the higher odds to win the WS (8.0% to 6.9%).  Given that the respective run differentials for the two teams are close, and the Red Sox would avoid the 1-game WC, this seems strange, no?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Yeah, that has to be an error of some kind. No team that has to play a winner-take-all Wild Card game can really have higher WS odds than a team that goes right to the division series.
Jay
12:12
If you're the Blue Jays, do you A) Sign Donaldson to an extension this offseason, B) Trade him for prospects this offseason, or C) Go to arbitration and try to deal him at next years deadline if you are out of contention?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I'd trade him. Especially now that it doesn't look entirely unreasonable that Vlad Jr. could be big league ready next summer.
JD15
12:13
If dodgers played their AAA team the rest of the season how many games would they win the division by?
Dave Cameron
12:13
They're up 21 games at the moment. Maybe 17?
adam
12:14
Best way to resolve the upcoming Phillies infield logjam?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Trade Galvis, hand SS to Crawford. At 2B, I'd probably experiment with Kingery at third to try and keep Hernandez around.
Mookie Betts
12:16
10/300. Who says no? The Sox or Betts?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Let's say Mookie's going to get ~$30M in arbitration, so that would buy out seven FA years at $270M. That's a $38M AAV. I don't know that Boston does that this far out.
I don't think it's that far off, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to get closer to $35M AAV on the FA years.
Joel
12:19
Over under 50% chance of Mike Trout winning the MVP over Altuve?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Actually winning it? Under.
Have a hard time seeing voters hand the award to a guy who missed 40 games.
Dom
12:20
Is the PBEO Job Fair at the winter meetings worth going to as a college student to get a feel for the positions available?
Dave Cameron
12:20
If you want to work for a minor league team, sure. But MLB teams aren't setting up shop there. The jobs available there are usually things like selling tickets for a low-A affiliate.
Marissa
12:21
Hello, I'm curious on who you think has a brighter future, Conforto or Rosario. Thanks!!
Dave Cameron
12:21
Conforto
Firesale
12:22
Rusney Castillo, Hanley Ramirez, David Price, Jay Groome, and Michael Chavis for Stanton. Who says no?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Why would the Marlins do that?
Wes
12:23
When it comes to making opinions on prospects do you tend to lean more towards analysis from guys like Longenhagen or more towards KATOH/KATOH+?
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