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Dave Cameron
12:41
But, of course, if you remove the incentive to be the one to find it, finding that magic bullet makes it less likely.
Anthony
12:41
Over/ under on Arrieta (assuming he comes back healthy as expected): 5/$100M
Dave Cameron
12:41
Under on 5 years
I'd guess 3-4, probably at a higher AAV.
Billy
12:42
Seems unlikely the red sox are the only ones doing this right?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Right
Ray
12:43
Isn't that kind of like saying distracting a player trying to make a catch is allowed but shining a laser pointer in his eyes is not? It's still a pretty big difference...
Dave Cameron
12:43
It's very clear that shining a laser pointer in someone's eyes will have a negative impact on their performance. it is not at all clear that stealing signs has any real impact on anyone.
Stevil
12:45
Who may have been affected the worst by the possibility of juiced baseballs? The Mariners?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Guys with actual power.
Now everyone can hit 25 homers and their one skill has been massively devalued.
12:48
A few minute break.
Phone call.
12:57
Sorry, my dad's doctors really like to call during chats.
We'll go a little later to make up for that break.
Bat
12:58
Dave, thanks for chatting. Do you think that at some point in the future we would see an adjustment to the OPS calculation where OBP is weighed slightly more heavily than SP? I see guys like Wilmer Flores with high SP and low OBP and wonder if they aren't less valuable than guys with reverse splits OBP/SP?
Dave Cameron
12:58
This is literally what wOBA was designed for.
Bink
12:58
I appreciate your recognition of the fact that half the stars in baseball were "low-ceiling" guys, and that the degree of success a player is likely to have is one of the least likely things you will have certainty about outside of a few fairly obvious choices at the top of every prospect list.  If we look at stars who were not recognized as uberprospects, are there commonalities, or is "they work harder than everyone else" uninformative?
Dave Cameron
12:58
Lots of guys who didn't look like power hitters who figured out how to hit for power.
12:59
Not that you want to assume every Ben Revere is going to figure it out, but power ceilings is one of the areas you want to be most skeptical about, especially if the guy has anything close to average exit velocity. There are just so many Jose Ramirez/Justin Turner types that there should be a lot less certainty about power ceilings than is usually described.
Zwak
1:01
Is there any september to october performance correlation for individual players? Like if Player X is struggling during the final month of the season, there is a Y% increase that he will continue to struggle relative to if he were providing his average offense?
Dave Cameron
1:01
If it's health related, yes. Alex Wood and Lance McCullers should be expected to underperform their projections in October, probably. Just a guy in a slump, though? I've seen zero evidence of it being predictive.
YKnotDisco?!
1:02
What unconventional punishment would you assign to the 15 year old responsible for the fire?
Dave Cameron
1:02
An internet with only Jon Heyman columns.
RMR
1:03
If you discovered how to prevent TJS personally, wouldn't you just quit your job with whatever team you were working for and try to market that technology/solution to as many as possible?  Or would that IP be considered property of the team since you discovered it in your capacity as their employee?
Dave Cameron
1:03
Right, you wouldn't own the rights to that information. It would be the team's property.
LegallyEagle
1:03
Re: beneficiaries of juiced balls; wouldn't a previous 25 HR person see a steady increase in his HRs anyways, thus meaning he still hits more than average?
Dave Cameron
1:04
It hasn't worked out that way. The benefits of the HR changes have overwhelmingly gone to prior low power guys.
Jazzflute
1:05
How early can we possibly expect Vlad Jr to hit the majors?
Dave Cameron
1:05
Next summer.
1:06
He's starting next year in Double-A. No reason he can't do something like what Devers did this year and finish the year with Toronto.
EbenezerBatflip
1:06
So big power guys aren't hitting balls for 500-600 feet, just low power guys can hit for 350-400 feet now
Dave Cameron
1:06
Basically, yes.
1:07
Or perhaps said a little more accurately, the extra distance that power guys get don't matter as much in terms of HR quantity.
There are diminishing returns on extra distance for guys who already hit bombs.
Ginacarlo Stanton
1:09
What about me?
Dave Cameron
1:09
I'm not saying that power guys have gotten 0 benefit from the livelier ball.
I'm saying that the benefit they've gotten is smaller than the benefit guys like Marwin Gonzalez have gotten.
If you look at the distribution of HRs, it's far flatter now than it used to be.
1:10
Okay, off to do some writing and podcasting
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