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HugoZ
12:38
Do you believe there'd be another grievance filed if Acuna isn't brought up until mid-April?
Dave Cameron
12:39
Nope. Boras whined about it when the Cubs did it with Bryant, but in the end, nothing happened.
Chaps
12:39
I'm somewhat confused by the financial side of signing Otani. Every team has an international pool for this upcoming off season, which would only effect the signing bonus that he could receive? So a team with a limited international pool would still pay him the same base salary as a team with no limitations, but the difference would be the signing bonus. Is that correct?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Yes. But the bonus pools aren't for the off-season; they're for the period that began on July 2nd. So some teams have already spent good sized chunks of their bonus pools.
But, yes, Ohtani will sign a standard uniform player contract after agreeing to a bonus amount of some size with some team, and then he'll make the league minimum (or close to it) next year, regardless of who signs him.
TK
12:41
Where do you think Otani would be in the current prospect rankings if he were eligible today?
Dave Cameron
12:41
#1, probably.
12:42
I love Vlad and Acuna is obviously very exciting, but Ohtani is probably more ready to make an impact in 2018, and it's not clear there's less upside.
Al Gone Quinn
12:42
What would you estimate the WAR split (in %) will be for Otani's career offensive WAR vs pitching WAR?
Dave Cameron
12:42
90/10 pitching.
Santos
12:43
So if Otani proves that you can succeed as a pitcher-hitter, do you think other teams will follow suit and develop players that way?
Dave Cameron
12:43
I would imagine Brendan McKay and Hunter Greene are probably hoping so.
Rhys Hoskins
12:43
Throw some cold water on me.
Dave Cameron
12:44
80% of your extra base hits going for home runs is unsustainable.
He doesn't actually hit the ball that hard for a slugger; his FB+LD exit velocity is just 94 mph.
12:45
So, don't expect this Stanton-esque HR pace to keep up.
12:46
That said, nothing wrong with a high-walk, average-K, above-average power skillset.
AK
12:46
Is there any timeline on when he would be posted / when he would decide where to sign?  Would we expect it to take place during the normal winter activities, or could potentially it extend through spring training and into the season?
Dave Cameron
12:46
MLB and NPB have to re-work the posting agreement, so that might slow things down.
I'd guess he'd be posted in November or December, and then he'd have 30 days to sign.
So maybe signs around Christmas?
Anthony
12:47
What I don't get about the whole "float the extension to Otani after a year" argument that it assumes he'll be elite. If he's not as good as expected year one (or even just gets injured), isn't he just left holding the bag?
Dave Cameron
12:47
Yes, that's the risk he's assuming.
If he wanted a maximum guarantee without having to play in MLB first, he'd wait two years.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:48
If you'd have to choose the LEAST likely places for Otani, (sigh), Milwaukee would have to be one of them, right? Not much in the way of interestingness of city, probably can't afford to take major risks with allowing him to play 2 ways, small market team...is there any reason he'd entertain a Brewers offer?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Maybe he really likes sausage?
12:49
I'd probably put the Royals down as the very least likely team to sign him.
12:50
Have their own guys to try and sign this winter, can't offer to let him pinch hit for other Ps, and I don't think KC has a thriving Asian community for him to join.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:50
600 Million? Maybe that's what the saber community feels he should be paid, but I doubt an MLB owner or GM would reset the market by THAT much. (What was the biggest contract before A-Rod signed for 250m?
Dave Cameron
12:51
Because of how the luxury tax works, a team is much better off doing a very long deal than a shorter, higher salary deal. So the incentives are there to push the term out as much as possible.
12:52
And if you don't think Trout is worth $40M per year, I don't know what to tell you.
Chaps
12:52
Do you think teams will try some sort of "under-the-table" deal to sign Otani, or do you think they'll play by the rules with regards to signing him?
Dave Cameron
12:53
I don't think any team will risk having anything official in place. If he blows out his arm a month into his rookie season, but then you announce a 10 year extension a few months later, MLB won't allow it.
So it will have to be some kind of "we can't promise this, but as long as everything goes smoothly, let's talk in 12 months" thing.
AK
12:54
Have there been any previous cases where MLB punished a team for circumventing negotiation rules before?  Would the player ever be held accountable in that type of situation, or would only the team get punished?
Dave Cameron
12:54
The Red Sox got banned from signing international players at all because they were packaging players together to get around the bonus rules.
They weren't the only one doing it, but they were the one MLB made an example of.
Nick
12:56
If you were a GM with a team that could reasonably contend next year, how would you try to sign Otani, and would you attempt to do something under the table? Seems like some moral hazard here.
Dave Cameron
12:56
It's a tough situation, because he was clearly not the kind of player that the league had in mind when they created the bonus pool caps.
12:57
If you're going to make a purely ethical argument, you could argue that getting him as much money as possible is the truly moral thing to do, given that the league's restrictions on his earnings aren't particularly fair or just.
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