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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:04
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
12:05
Going to have a few more minute delay; kid slept in this morning so got him to preschool late.
We will start shortly.
Pablo
12:07
Who gets the second NL Wild Card?
Dave Cameron
12:07
At this point, it's a toss up. I'd take MIL if I was making a wild guess, but there isn't much separating these teams.
Guest
12:08
What is a reasonable expectation for Matt Olson next year?  Surely the league is going to adjust...
Dave Cameron
12:08
Well, yeah, he isn't going to hit 70 homers. But the power looks legit, the contact rate is fine, and he's handling lefties, which is new. So I'd guess something like .260/.330/.500?
toki
12:09
Any players you think get held down till the super 2 cutoff next year?
Dave Cameron
12:10
The Braves historically haven't played service time games as much as everyone else (Jason Heyward broke camp with the team, for instance), but they could keep Acuna down if they can't find a taker for Kemp and/or Markakis this winter. At that point, they'd have enough cover to say "hey, we're going with veterans to start, then we'll see"
toki
12:11
With the new ball and data.  How soon till teams start expanding rotations beyond 5 guys?  Or do you think teams might go to shorter outings for starters instead of more starters?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I don't think we're going to see expanded rotations; I think we're going to see the end of starting pitching as it's been handled. The game is moving towards more guys throwing 2-4 innings, and it won't stop moving that way until it shows some diminishing returns.
EK
12:12
Are the D-Backs rolling out Corbin or Walker for their 4th starter (assuming they get past the WC game)? Both have been inconsistent at times
Dave Cameron
12:13
Well, I don't think they are any kind of guarantee to get past the WC game, and they'll have to burn one of their better starters in that game either way, so I don't think they'll have the luxury of a standard rotation in the DS.
12:14
But if you're picking between Corbin/Walker, it has to depend on how many good RH hitters the other team has. If it's more than a few, Walker. You can't throw Corbin against a bunch of RHBs in a playoff game if you don't have to.
YU
12:14
Do you think the Angels or Twins have a better shot at beating the Yankees in the WC game?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Angels. Richards looks good right now, and MIN doesn't have anyone who can match his arm for the first few innings.
PF
12:14
Thoughts on the Estrada extension?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Reasonable. He wouldn't have done much worse than 1/$13M on the open market, and this gives the Jays some protection in case things get crazy.
Alicia Rounderneck
12:16
Astros play the last 4 games of the season at Fenway.. As it stands now both teams would meet in ALDS. Bos needs to win. Does HOU start Verlander or Keichel at all?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I could see them getting abbreviated starts. You let them take the mound, give them 50 pitches, get them through a few innings, then put in Liriano or whoever.
Baez
12:17
Even I can't rationalize why the Dodgers Front Office has pushed me so hard
Dave Cameron
12:17
Because they've had the division won since June, and now it's clear that he won't be part of their October roster.
So he's just eating meaningless innings at this point.
toki
12:18
Is it possible that the new ball is causing more injuries which in turn is going to cut careers shorter?  Meaning pitchers are losing money due to the new ball....
Dave Cameron
12:18
There is plenty of speculation that the ball is also the cause of the blister problems so many pitchers had this year.
Mookie Cookie
12:19
If you had to predict one team that absolutely won't win a world series in the next 10 years, who would you say?
Dave Cameron
12:19
It has to be the Padres. They are a long way away from being even decent, and they have the sport's biggest obstacle in their own division.
Grover
12:20
Based on this season do you think Corey Seager can stick at SS for longer than a lot of people thought?
Dave Cameron
12:21
I think physical skills on the infield have been devalued so lots of guys can play IF spots that they wouldn't have been able to 10 years ago.
Slew
12:22
Should the Indians prioritize resting players or chasing the Dodgers for best record and possible home field advantage?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Rest
Jack
12:22
Hey Dave, are the number of scoops by a first baseman factored into advanced fielding metrics? I took a look yesterday and saw that Hosmer is the league leader in scoops since 2015. However, he is rated one of the worst defensive first baseman in baseball. I feel like a first baseman's scooping ability would be extremely important and valuable at that position.
Dave Cameron
12:23
Scoops are factored in, yes. The reality is that there just aren't enough of them, and there isn't enough of a spread in talent, for it to matter that much. It's a few runs per year, basically.
Davy
12:23
Does Anthony Rendon have an actual shot at winning NL MVP? I'm a Nats fan and I'm dispirited by how little I've heard on the subject.
Dave Cameron
12:23
No.
He'll get a bunch of 5th-10th place votes.
And maybe a few stray 2s and 3s
Argy Bargy
12:24
Dave, last night on the Red Sox radio broadcast, Joe Castiglione said that Jackie Bradley, Jr. is the "best outfielder I've seen anywhere, anytime."  I find this a rather surprising statement, to say the least.  Bradley rates pretty well by advanced defensive stats, and seems to by the eye test too, but nothing eye-popping at all.  What do you think is informing Joe's opinion?  I don't get it.
Dave Cameron
12:25
Bradley makes a lot of spectacular plays, and he has an absurd arm. It's very easy to take that and extrapolate it out, versus a guy like Kiermaier who just takes crazy good routes.
Josh
12:25
The Brewers are now just one game back of Colorado for the second WC, but the Playoffs Odds give Milwaukee just a 21% chance of supplanting the Rockies. Doesn't that seem a little light to you?  Is it primarily due to their remaining schedules?
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