JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron

12:04

Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:05

I'm gettting a little bit of a late start today, but we'll fire this thing up in a couple of minutes.

Andrew

12:11

Will Stanton be traded by the Winter Meetings and too what Team?

Dave Cameron

12:11

Since we're dealing with a guy who has never run a team before, it's hard to know what Jeter is going to do.

My guess is the teams that are interested will eventually tell the Marlins that they're moving on if they don't get an answer.

12:12

And I wouldn't be shocked if that happened next week.

So that everyone could focus on other things in Orlando.

Brian

12:12

Dave, I am excited that Ohtani is almost certainly coming to the MLB. However, I also kind of what to punch him in the face for not waiting two more years. Reasonable or do I have serious issues?

Dave Cameron

12:12

Why would you want to punch someone for prioritizing personal happiness over total wealth?

It's not Ohtani's fault that MLB and the PA decided to screw him over.

Nelson

12:13

If Otani only gets less than 300 ABs a year, wont his hitting skills deteriorate right from the start?

Dave Cameron

12:14

Maybe. It's one of those unknowns that can't really be answered empirically. We just don't know how offensive development is hindered without everyday at-bats.

MattyB

12:14

How likely is it that Ohtani joins the Mariners, and how many ABs do you think he'd get there next year?

Dave Cameron

12:14

I would put them in the top five among potential destinations. But even with that, it's probably 10% or something.

12:15

And if he was only DHing a few days a week and didn't have Ps to pinch hit for, we're talking maybe 60 starts, so ~250 AB?

Steve

12:15

What type of impact does the luxury tax have on next season's free agent bonanza?

Dave Cameron

12:16

Teams won't care next winter. They care this winter because, if they're close to the line now, they can keep their tax rates lower starting next year, and hold off the 50% tax for a few years.

Greg

12:17

Dave what do you think a Red Sox trade package for Abreu would look like?

Dave Cameron

12:17

Dombrowski is the GM, so whatever a reasonable offer is, +20%

12:18

It's two years of a good-not-great 1B, making probably ~$25M over those two years. Certainly under market value, but not some kind of insane bargain.

Post Malone

12:19

How were the orange rolls?

Dave Cameron

12:19

Amazing, as always.

Brett W

12:20

How would SF's farm system look in 12 months if it committed to a rebuild today?

Dave Cameron

12:20

They'd get a mint for Bumgarner and Posey, so pretty great.

12:20

What's the better move, signing J.D. to the deal he'll likely get or going after Stanton?

Dave Cameron

12:20

Depends entirely on how much money the Marlins are ultimately willing to pay down. But I'd probably just sign Martinez.

BJOGC

12:21

How many seasons do YOU think Ohtani will be a hitter? The consensus seems to be that eventually he will be exclusively pitching

Dave Cameron

12:22

Depends on where he lands. Even if he's only as good a hitter as Bumgarner, still plenty of value in having him PH for the P a bunch.

If he ends up in the AL, I think he might be a P only soon-ish. I don't know that he's going to be good enough to justify DH time and whatever cost there is to his pitching.

Shawn Baseball

12:23

How good do the prospects in the deal have to be for the Blue Jays to trade Morales to the White Sox for Jose Abreu?

Dave Cameron

12:23

Better than they would be if they were just trading for Abreu. Morales has negative value.

Walt Whitman

12:23

Shouldn't the Nationals be in on Stanton (to the extent anyone should be)? One last all-in push with Harper, plus a core moving forward of Stanton, Rendon, Turner, Scherzer, Strasburg?

Dave Cameron

12:24

With Eaton, Taylor, Harper, and Goodwin around, plus Robles nearly ready, they don't need OF help.

Mammon

12:24

What do you predict for Machado and Harper contacts? Does 12/$350MM and 12/$450MM sound accurate?

Dave Cameron

12:24

Low on both.

resumeman

12:24

Do the Steamer/zips projections include a park adjustment when someone changes teams? So like, if Brandon Belt got traded to the Yankees or something, would his projected HRs jump?

Dave Cameron

12:24

Yes.

Jeffery Maier's glove

12:25

Bigger need for the 2018 Chicago Cubs- offense or pitching?

Dave Cameron

12:25

Pitching.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:25

Lewis Brinson + a lottery ticket or two for Marcus Stroman - is this anywhere near a viable framework for a deal?