JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Prich

12:44

What do you think the Marlins will ultimately do: Pay down the contract and receive a haul; pay a little and get a solid package; find the team willing to take the most $$$ off their hands and more or less ignore the prospects coming back?

Dave Cameron

12:45

Reading the tea leaves, I think they want to dump as much of the contract as possible, and I think they'll take less in return to do so.

Dan

12:45

What is your take on how the Braves OF shakes out?

Dave Cameron

12:46

I wouldn't be shocked if they just cut Kemp in spring training.

AA isn't the guy who traded for him, so easier for him to just say "not my guy"

Jordan

12:46

White Sox fans seem to think they could get JBJ+ top prospects, or Ben+ top prospects for Abreu, I contend that between age, $$$ and the glut of similar free agents means Abreu isn’t worth JBJ or Ben or top prospects, what’s your thoughts on his value?

Dave Cameron

12:46

Bradley is worth so much more than Abreu, it's not even close.

Ryan

12:47

Abreu opted into arb so he is going to make 17.9M this year according to MLBTR. Even worse for Boston.

Dave Cameron

12:47

I'll take the under on him getting $18M, but yeah, good point.

He got $11M as an arb-1 last year, so after a good year, he's probably over $16M this year, and maybe $20M next year.

12:48

So now he's more like 2/$35M, maybe 2/$40M?

You'd take him at those prices, but if you give up something really valuable to get it, it's a mistake.

Garrett

12:49

Postulating that Bill James' premise that the Yankees' underperforming their pythag wins is an indictment of Judge's performance in 2017. Wouldn't that *also* imply that you'd need to calculate how much of that under-performance *each* *player* is responsible for? Say, if the rough patch the bullpen went through in the middle of the season cost them a bunch of close games. Normalizing for context means you have to normalize *everybody* on that team, no?

Dave Cameron

12:49

Yup.

striker

12:49

RedSox get Abreu
Giants get JBJ
WhiteSox get Groome and Arroyo

Dave Cameron

12:49

Dombrowski gets insta-fired.

12:50

Also, the world in which the Giants can turn Christian Arroyo into Jackie Bradley Jr must be a fun one.

Brian

12:50

Is JBJ and Michael Chavis or Sam Travis enough, too little or too much for Jose Abreu?

Dave Cameron

12:50

I can't believe how many JBJ+ for Abreu suggestions are in the queue.

12:51

Bradley is better than Abreu, cheaper than Abreu, and under team control for longer than Abreu. Also, there's a billion first baseman on the market this winter, and only one good CF.

Birddog

12:52

Would a swap of Mark Trumbo for Jordan Zimmerman make sense?

Dave Cameron

12:53

I don't know what the Tigers would do with Trumbo, or why the Orioles would want Zimmerman.

The Man With No Name

12:53

If Ohtani is only as good a hitter as Bumgarner is, you say there's "still value in having him pinch hit a bunch." But Bumgarner doesn't PH a bunch. Why not? He doesn't want to? Giants won't allow it?

Dave Cameron

12:53

Giants didn't have to promise to let him do it in order to sign him.

If you can entice Ohtani to join your team by offering him PH at-bats, it's worth doing.

Nate

12:55

Who is the most likely guy traded that no one is talking about?

Dave Cameron

12:55

Gerrit Cole?

Feels like PIT will trade Cutch, and then people will realize "oh, yeah, we can go get Cole now"

Kevin

12:56

If Abreu surplus is 20m, then would you be OK with Boston trading one of Groome/Chavis for him?

Dave Cameron

12:57

Sure. I'm not as high on those guys as many others.

Mike

12:58

Matt Adams seems like the kind of guy the Yankees target to plug at DH until half way through the year when they DFA him for being bad, agreed?

Dave Cameron

12:58

He looks like a Royal to me.

Chris

12:59

Regarding the Donaldson to Stl proposal, is it possible for the Cardinals to talk to Donaldson about a contract extension while he is under contract with the Jays, if they give Stl a window? I know he's not signing an extension, just wondering about the rules.

Dave Cameron

12:59

You get 72 hours after a trade has been agreed to in order to talk to the new guy about an extension before the trade has to be finalized.

Andrew

1:00

I realize needs are different and whatnot, but generally speaking, what type of contract would you be willing to give to Hosmer if you were a GM? If he could be signed for ~4 years/$80 mil, would he then be 'worth' it?

Dave Cameron

1:00

Sure, at 4/$80M, he's fine.

He's not a terrible player.

He's just overrated.

Matt

1:00

Regarding what you think the Marlins *will* do with Stanton: what do you think they *should* do?

Dave Cameron

1:01

Offer to eat a bunch of the end of the contract in exchange for better prospects, then hope he opts out and you don't have to eat any of that anyway.

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